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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college"
The EconomistChance of winning the electoral college:
Joe Biden: around 6 in 7 or 86%
Donald Trump: around 1 in 7 or 13%
Estimated Electoral College Votes:
Joe Biden: 335
Donald Trump: 203
Modelled popular vote:
Joe Biden: 53%
Donald Trump: 47%
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"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college" (Original Post)
brooklynite
Sep 2020
OP
not sure how this works out, tho. Covid is super scary and when the voter thinks of who didn't
CTyankee
Sep 2020
#5
I like th Economist. their poll aggregation guy makes a lot of sense ...interesting twitter feed
Thekaspervote
Sep 2020
#4
Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)1. Lets hope that translates into a done deal on election day.
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)2. If you look at the trend lines, they're fairly static going into November
Cicada
(4,533 posts)3. Their model includes economic data, which may not predict as before
In a normal year the high unemployment rate would be deadly for the incumbent. But this year people blame covid for it instead of the incumbent. So I discount this model some. The 538 model seems better suited for this crazy year.
CTyankee
(63,771 posts)5. not sure how this works out, tho. Covid is super scary and when the voter thinks of who didn't
protect them against the virus, they think of Trump. That's a gut punch, IMO...
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)4. I like th Economist. their poll aggregation guy makes a lot of sense ...interesting twitter feed
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