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brooklynite

(93,873 posts)
Fri Sep 18, 2020, 09:17 AM Sep 2020

"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college"

The Economist

Chance of winning the electoral college:
Joe Biden: around 6 in 7 or 86%
Donald Trump: around 1 in 7 or 13%

Estimated Electoral College Votes:
Joe Biden: 335
Donald Trump: 203

Modelled popular vote:
Joe Biden: 53%
Donald Trump: 47%
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"Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college" (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2020 OP
Lets hope that translates into a done deal on election day. Thomas Hurt Sep 2020 #1
If you look at the trend lines, they're fairly static going into November brooklynite Sep 2020 #2
Their model includes economic data, which may not predict as before Cicada Sep 2020 #3
not sure how this works out, tho. Covid is super scary and when the voter thinks of who didn't CTyankee Sep 2020 #5
I like th Economist. their poll aggregation guy makes a lot of sense ...interesting twitter feed Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #4

Cicada

(4,533 posts)
3. Their model includes economic data, which may not predict as before
Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:05 AM
Sep 2020

In a normal year the high unemployment rate would be deadly for the incumbent. But this year people blame covid for it instead of the incumbent. So I discount this model some. The 538 model seems better suited for this crazy year.

CTyankee

(63,771 posts)
5. not sure how this works out, tho. Covid is super scary and when the voter thinks of who didn't
Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:28 AM
Sep 2020

protect them against the virus, they think of Trump. That's a gut punch, IMO...

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
4. I like th Economist. their poll aggregation guy makes a lot of sense ...interesting twitter feed
Fri Sep 18, 2020, 10:26 AM
Sep 2020

Almost daily

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