This is the reason Trump will leave peacefully & not contest Biden's election in any way.

[Stuart G]

...One simple reason that is now clear to most of us. Trump will lose by a huge margin. Not a million or so, but tens of millions. Say 60 to 40 percent as is now being forecast. If anyone thinks it will be close, I think that is totally wrong. Trump has done such a poor job, that it is clear to everyone. So it won't be close, and Trump & company will leave peacefully without any arguments. If it were close, that would be another story.
...We see so many Republicans saying that this time they will vote for a democrat for the first time in their lives. Not one or two, but many. Countless stories right here in Democratic Underground support this. Why? Trump has done an awful job, and that is an understatement. There is nothing left to argue. Will it be 60 percent or 62 percent for Biden. That is what is left of the discussion. Or 65 percent? Trump will leave peacefully, because if he tries to argue the results, he will look very stupid and silly. If he refuses to leave after a huge loss, he will look even more stupid and silly.
.... Refusing to leave will cause him to also lose a lot of high fee speaking engagements. Who would higher someone who refused to leave the White House when the results were clear and fair to everyone everywhere?

[ProudMNDemocrat]

1. Biden will NOT pardon Trump or his lackeys in crime...

Trump is fucked no matter what route he takes once he loses. His past and present while POTUS, is going to catch up with him.

Orange jumpsuit time. No spray tan.

[Sneederbunk]

7. Trump loses. Trump resigns. Pence pardons Trump.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. State of New York will jump on Trump right away.

Plus, Trump loses his 5th Amendment right to self-incrimination.

[jmowreader]

37. I don't think so

Trump has destroyed the political careers of everyone around him. They won’t get elected to office, they won’t get jobs in lobbying shops...and as for think tanks, who’d want a person whose last job was “lackey for a man who grew the Democratic vote” in the building?

So...the odds of Vice President Pence handing a get-out-of-jail-free card to the man who ended his dream of being president are somewhere between nonexistent and worse than that.

[LakeArenal]

2. I have said from the beginning 2020 is not 2016.2

Completely different time and country

[Stuart G]

4. I agree with you completely. Your words, "different time and country."

[MFGsunny]

17. + 1000 n/t

[demmiblue]

3. I don't agree with your assessment... he most certainly will not leave peacefully. n/t

[Firestorm49]

5. Don't rule out Barr to reach into his Federalist bag of tricks .............

and come up with a reason to invalidate the election. I wouldn't put it past him. After all, the administration just gave the bird to the Supreme Court.

[Polybius]

28. No, her term expires around January 3rd if there are no elections

Without a Speaker, President, or VP the president pro tempore becomes President. And that is...Chuck Grassley, yikes!

But none of this will ever happen.

[Polybius]

38. Again no

If there were no elections, there would be zero House members come January 3rd. Every singe House seat is up for election. With no Party in a majority, there would be no Speaker.

[Polybius]

41. Yup, it certainly is moot

He wishes he could, but he can't.

[karynnj]

42. Would that depend on the new Senate? If so, it could be Pat Leahy

If the Senate elections are up in the air, it could be just those not up and that means a Democratic majority.

[StarfishSaver]

6. You may be right. I go back and forth on this

I agree with you - and his niece - that if the margin is a huge one, he will likely be so humiliated that he won't try to drag it out. He'll somehow declare victory and march off like he's a boss.

But he has been so unpredictable and crazy, I'm not comfortable predicting anything he'll do anymore. The man is completely unhinged, so who knows what he'll actually do when the time comes.

[DeminPennswoods]

30. Have you seen Pelosi address this?

She gets a flinty look in her eyes and says "Oh, he's leaving". I have no doubt if need be, she would walk over to the WH, grab Trump by the ear lobe and lead him out of the building.

[StarfishSaver]

35. I have no doubt that he's leaving. At noon on Janury 20.

I just don't know what batshish craziness he's going to do in the meantime.

[underpants]

8. Honestly he can't wait to leave

He’s miserable there. He’s hated it for day one. His ego yeah he can’t stand losing but he still gets to go around as “former President” even if it’s just from the omelette station to the putting green.

[CaptainTruth]

9. At this point I think Trump wants out (he can't handle the pressure...

...doesnt know what he's doing, & is failing & he knows it).

I think he just wants to take his rabid cult base with him so he can monetize them (ie make money off the suckers) for the rest of his life. That's why he's only playing to his base, he sees them as a source of cash that can be milked for years to come so he needs to maintain their loyalty. And remember, to Trump, EVERYTHING is transactional.

[Mme. Defarge]

16. And ...

Nobody likes him.

[uponit7771]

10. Unnnn, if we don't properly demonize Trump admin then his speaking fees matter. IF we do properly

... demonize Trump then there's no were the bum can go

[demosincebirth]

20. Who's going to pay him to speak?

[lunatica]

23. You mean who will pay him to hold MAGAT rallies?

His base won’t. They have no money thanks to him.

[Hoyt]

12. Think he'll leave too. But, first thing is to whip his ass at polls. Everything else hinges on that.

[Stuart G]

13. You got it..All of us must....VOTE!!

[Pobeka]

21. ... and we have to enable as many voters as possible to get their ballots in.

I live in WA, no real problems here, but many many states need help, as polling places will likely be shut down in minority precincts, and mail in voting is looking sketchier every day due to GOP shenanigans with the USPS.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. He won't refuse to leave, but things won't be peaceful

Even if legal challenges prove pointless due to Biden’s landslide, Trump will claim his win is not legitimate due to fraud. He will wreak havoc and sow chaos in his final months. He will be desperate to do something, anything, to protect himself from post-presidential prosecution. As some have speculated he may resign so Pence can pardon him, or try to self-pardon.

In the meantime, he and his cronies will take everything that isn’t nailed down. I predict there will be an acceleration of transfers of govt. funds to Trump businesses.

Even if Trump is pardoned, Biden will need to have him and family (especially Jared) surveilled for the rest of their lives, because I am certain they will try to use their knowledge of classified information for financial gain.

As much as I look forward to January 20, I don’t look forward to the lame duck period that precedes it.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. I don't think anyone is forecasting 60% to 40%

fivethirtyeight.com, for instance, puts the national weighted poll as an 8 point lead for Biden, not 20. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Don't assume there is a huge margin. That could lead to complacency.

[nykym]

18. I would love to see the traditional message

a departing President (tRUMP) leaves his successor.

[JI7]

22. he will leave but he will still imply or even outright claim he was cheated

and anyone who pays him a lot in speaking fees are not going to care about him claiming the results were not real.

he has already done so much fucked up things that is not going to matter.

[lastlib]

24. He looks very stupid and silly now--what does he have to lose there.

The presidency is his "get out of jail free" card. He won't go without at least a temper-tantrum. A temper-tantrum by a man-baby with nuclear codes and the full weight of federal law-enforcement machinery behind him, not to mention the ability to summon his beer-belly brown-shirt militia buds and their "second amendment solutions."

I could see him hollering fraud and rigged elections, then ordering his storm-troopers to seize state election headquarters in critical states to "Protect" the election results, then "miraculously" having those states produce results favorable to him. Call me a crackpot, but I don't dismiss the possibility with this creature.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. It will be a close election

The numbers in the OP are bizarre. They are thrown around with seemingly no sense of the burden. There is virtually no chance Biden reaches 55% of the vote, let alone 60 or 62%.

The actual over/under will be considerably lower than 55%. Wait until 538 starts assigning the percentages and it will stand out how poorly the election is being evaluated, from a conventional wisdom margin and percentage standpoint.

The GOP switcher anecdotes mean nothing. Those show up here every cycle. Meanwhile they can be totally ignored in favor of the traditional percentages.

Biden's margin is regulated by the fact that Hispanics always love the incumbent. There is no sense evaluating that category in any other fashion. Even while other demographics are shifting away from Trump compared to 2016, Hispanics will shift toward him. That simple reality impacts states like Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona.

Let's just be thrilled we're ahead and likely to stay there.

[GulfCoast66]

26. I do take some issue with your Hispanic label.

But I disagree with the general term Hispanic. Most ‘Hispanic’ people I know consider themselves white. Because many are! So I agree with your overall point. People from central and especially South America can be ever bit a racist as White Americans. Because they are white! What, because they are from Columbia, Brazil or heaven help Argentina they are natural Democratic Voters and have a natural affinity for people of color? We are kidding ourselves. Argentina is perhaps the most European based nation in the Hemisphere.

I grew up in Arkansas in the 70’s. We had a few guys in school who had Spanish surnames just like we had a few with Italian surnames. They were seen no different than my French surname.

Living in Florida this is the biggest mistake the party makes; assuming people from Central and South America are automatically democrats. They are often the upper class fleeing where they came from and very religious.

Granted things might be different in the SW with all the Mexican recent immigrants.

But any democrat who assumes all non-cuban ‘Hispanics’ are with us are delusional. Most Puerto Rican’s I work with I would guess are trump voters. Not all. But assuming we get their vote is crazy.

We should not have a ‘Hispanic’ out reach at all. Not in Florida. At least called by that named. With too many immigrants I work with, and their kids, treating them like they are not regular Americans pisses them off. They see themselves no different from me.

I know this may not fit many peoples comfortable narrative. But it is the truth.

[pwb]

34. I think a Republican humiliating defeat is coming big time.

The blue wave is building and trump keeps being trump so there is that. I think the O.Ps numbers are low. IMO.

[Stuart G]

44. It will not be close..It will be a landslide in Biden's favor...Here is why:

...Donald Trump is a bully, a liar, and a con man in no particular order. He dislikes women, and has shown that
on TV. You see them in press conferences, interviews and in all of the media.. You name them, they are there.

...The one deciding factor is this: Trump has shown this to all of us. This is not one TV appearance, it is 3 and one half years of over and over and over again. In politics, I suppose one of three is ok. But 3 of 3, No way!

....Over and over and over again, showing the worst traits possible on live TV, in interviews, press conferences, and other horrendous examples of those 3: bully, liar and con man.

... Day after day after day....Too many republicans have admitted publically, that they are turned off by Donald Trump as the President of the United States. You see it right here at Democratic Underground.. If you follow politics seriously, you already know that the polls are not lying. Yes, he will lose big, and Donald Trump is an incredulously bad leader. You couldn't have guessed what has happened, because this pandemic and the resulting deaths is almost unbelievable .

...And in the end, Donald Trump's leadership is partially responsible for the 150,000 deaths. He is a failure
at being a leader..."TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY"...Trump thinks he can fool the people of the United States,
but the only one he is fooling...just one....is himself...

...You will see. A worse defeat than McGovern in 72. You will see.!!!

[SiliconValley_Dem]

27. uhhh...interesting take

[Buckeyeblue]

31. He'll leave. But he will be a complete ass those final two months.

And it wouldn't surprise me if he resigns so Pence can pardon him. I would also imagine that he will be pardon happy those last two months. Trump will probably start selling them for pennies on the dollar. But he'll go.

New York crimes will be plea deals for fines. But no jail time. Maybe a low-level felony.

And he will go off and make as much money on his name that he can.

[Hortensis]

32. I think he'll rage and try to hurt America, including "my people"

who failed him. I believe he's been using his power to do that for a long time. I also suspect this may well include some actions Putin wants that Trump may have been afraid to take before the election.

Of course, the Republicans in congress will be ramming through all the judicial appointments they can manage all through the lame duck period. And praying to their god to strike down Justice Ginsberg in time for them to infiltrate another hard-core RW political agent into the high court.

[Buckeyeblue]

33. We might have to cut a deal with 4 Republican Senators to stop judicial confirmations

And Biden should make it clear that any action Trump takes to help Russia will be thoroughly investigated and if appropriate, prosecuted.

[Hortensis]

36. Pelosi and Schumer have already done that. It hasn't stopped

Trump from doing very grave damage to our national security via giant gifts to Putin/Russia that would have required him to win major wars to achieve. China also. We don't know what hold(s) Putin has on Trump, but with protection from the Republicans Trump's clearly been fearing, and aligning with, Putin far more than he's fearing threats from Democrats.

[gulliver]

39. He should be impeached out of the final two months.

Once Trump's a lame duck, Republican Senators won't be so reluctant to convict him, especially if they've just taken a hit in the election themselves.

[Awsi Dooger]

43. I'll paste this exit poll table again

Presidential outcomes by state are decided by ideology. There is no such thing as 10+ million voters switching sides and voting against their ideological tendencies. That's why Biden cannot reach 60% or anything close to that. Voters will change sides in isolated gubernatorial races. Federal races like senate and especially presidential are firmly dictated by ideology. It is also the reason Trump's approval cannot crater to 30% or even 35%. The vast majority of Republicans, conservatives and right leaning moderates will approve of Trump even if he mandated swastikas on babies.

The conservative percentage of the state's electorate is at left, followed by the Democratic result in that state...W or L. Every state plus DC was exit polled through 2008. Then they dropped to roughly 30 as a cost cutting measure beginning in 2012.

I've seen nonsensical claims here that Trump in a landslide defeat would win 10 states. Meanwhile he has more than 20 locked up no matter what he says or does. They have too many conservatives in those states to vote any other way.

Ideological Chart 2004-2016
Democratic Result by Conservative Percentage

* 51…L
* 50…
* 49…L
* 48…L
* 47…L,L
* 46…L,L,L,L
* 45…L,L,L
* 44…L,L,L,L
* 43…L,L,L,L
* 42…L,L,L,L
* 41…L,L,L,L
* 40…L,L,L,L,L,L
* 39…L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L
* 38…L,L,L,L,L,L,L,L
* 37…W,W,W,W
* 36…L,L,L,L,L,W,W,L,L,L,L,L,W
* 35…L,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,W,W,W
* 34…L,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,W,L
* 33…L,W,L,W,W,W,L,W
* 32…W,W,W,W
* 31…W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W
* 30…W,W,W,W,W,W,W
* 29…W,W,W
* 28…W,W,W,W,W
* 27…W,W,W,W,W,W
* 26…W,W,W
* 25…W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W
* 24…W,W,W,W
* 23…W,W,W,W
* 22…
* 21…W,W,W,W

* 12…W (District of Columbia)
* 11…W (District of Columbia)

Summary:

* 38% and Up = 0-55
* 33% through 37% = 26-21
* 32% and Below = 59-0

[Stuart G]

45. You are wrong...and we will see on the eve of November 3rd. 10pm ET.

...Forget the polls. When people go into the voting booth to vote, the utter failure of Trump will hit people like lightening. He hates women, hates most people, is selfish beyond belief, and has shown those traits to all of us, because he is...Donald Trump...and he thinks he can get away with it...

And....his decision to avoid dealing with the virus..has already killed 150,000 Americans.

November 3rd 10pm ET....

[yortsed snacilbuper]

46. He'll be carried out on a stretcher,

he looks ill!

[Wednesdays]

47. Take nothing for granted!

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

[Stuart G]

48. I repeat... GOTV!...GOTV!..GOTV!...GOTV!...GOTV!! ...