General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCook Political moves five House seats in our direction, one towards Republicans.
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@CookPolitical
New House rating changes:
#AKAL Likely R to Lean R
#AR02 Solid R to Likely R
#FL26 Lean D to Toss Up
#GA06 Toss Up to Lean D
#NY02 Lean R to Toss Up
#OH10 Solid R to Likely R
Full article here (Lock): https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-cash-disadvantage-compounds-gop-woes
AleksS
(1,665 posts)Keep racing to the bottom.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Mucarsel-Powell is running against a popular mayor with huge name recognition, certainly far more well known than she is. She won a tight upset two years ago in a wave election.
That was actually a very strong and comparatively sensible Republican she defeated in 2018, hardly a wingnut. But now she's got to do it again versus an even more formidable opponent.
The district covers portions of southwest Miami but mostly stretches down through the Keys. It's a blue leaning district but that is only part of the story. Whenever Republicans run popular Cuban-Americans in the South Florida area it's hellish to defeat them. This race is like a congressional version of the Nelson/Scott senate race in that it is basically two incumbents squaring off against each other.
IMO, the race should always have been rated a toss up to begin with, once Gimenez entered the race. It was always top tier danger list for the DCCC. I think the national evaluators make some sloppy assumptions when they look merely at the partisan index of the district without taking into account the demographic advantages of the challenger. Mucarsel-Powell is going to somehow make inroads among the Cuban community to win this thing.
you're right, but at this point, any thinking people should be voting against trump. i'm surprised how many traitor loving, murderer loving people are out there.