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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNY Times: Trump's support among Black and Latino voters has not fallen.
By David Leonhardt
Good morning. Protests have grown more volatile. New virus cases are stabilizing, at a high level. And Trumps support among Black and Latino voters has not fallen.
Since taking office, President Trump has lost support among most major demographic groups: women and men, older and younger voters, college graduates and non-graduates. But there are at least two big exceptions: Black and Latino voters.
Trump will lose both groups badly in November, polls show. But his support among them has not slipped. If anything, it may have risen slightly. Close to 10 percent of Black voters and roughly 30 percent of Latinos back Trump.
I think theres a lot of denial about this fact, David Shor, a top Democratic data analyst, recently told New York magazine.
This enduring Black and Latino support for Republicans has had big consequences. It helped the party win victories in 2018 in Florida, Georgia and Texas, and could help decide Senate control this year.
What explains it? Most political analysts admit they arent sure. I dont think there are obvious answers, Shor said.
But there are some plausible theories.
Republican support among voters of color (including Asian-Americans) fell in the years before Trump entered politics. Many were turned off by the Republican Partys racial appeals to white voters anti-immigrant rhetoric, embrace of the Confederate flag, lies about Barack Obama and attempts to restrict voting access.
Trump has adopted a more obvious version of white identity politics. But he didnt invent the tactic. Black and Latino Americans who still vote Republican may simply not be bothered by it.
Latino support for Trump was already at historic lows, Gary Segura, dean of the Luskin School of Public Affairs at U.C.L.A. and co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions, told me. Theres just not that much room for them to move down.
These Republican voters of color may instead be focused on other issues. Black and Latino voters are somewhat more conservative on abortion than white voters, for instance. Some voters of color also favor a reduction in immigration. Others dont like political correctness. Shor points out that a big slice of working-class voters in many countries across races prefer the right-leaning party.
Mark Hugo Lopez of the Pew Research Center notes that Latinos are a diverse group. In focus groups in Florida, Lopez has seen Dominican- and Cuban-Americans react to Trumps harsh comments about Mexican immigrants with lines like, Thats unfortunate but not necessarily me.
Finally, some analysts say that Joe Biden and other Democrats havent given voters of color enough reason to support the party. Dems need to give them something to vote for, not simply against, Cornell Belcher, a Democratic strategist, told me.
Latinos dont have a strongly formed opinion about Biden, Stephanie Valencia of Equis Research told Voxs Matthew Yglesias.
JI7
(89,281 posts)which is pretty much the same reason white people support him.
And Trump hasn't failed to let anyone down that supported him over bigotry .
AkFemDem
(1,836 posts)There are three main issues imo, that attract a voter to him- and that voter may be there for any one, or two or all three reasons.
1. The bigotry you mention- but this isnt necessarily the draw for all of his voters
2. For upper-middle class and upper class voters, reasons are likely financial
3. Abortion, dont underestimate how many single issue voters there are in this country over that specific issue. I know white, stereotypically bigoted people who would vote for Kanye West if he were the only anti-abortion candidate on the ballot. Its literally the most important issue ever for them.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)to other minorities to vote Repub are virtually all at least strong conservatives. They align Republican against the liberal Democratic Party because they're conservative.
Plus a few far-left types, though they include a fair number posing as anti-Democratic left to hide being conservative. These are the Dems need to give them something to vote for, not simply against people not self motivated by liberal and progressive principles. Far left or con, they're not just unmoved by Democratic candidates but also by pressure from their own friends and families.
Sure, financial self interest and opposition to big tax chomps are really big with some, but usually opposition to liberal redistributive policies is also. Strong conservatives, with their typical darker views of human nature, feel government shouldn't be helping those who won't help themselves. As for those who high-mindedly claim RW financial policies are better for the economy itself, they have to hypocritically deny many decades of contradiction to do it. Which brings us back to the same old bigotry that also motivates most of their financially conservative counterparts of other skin colors.
Abortion's of course a different matter. A lot of anti-abortionists of all colors are mostly politically motivated regardless of what they believe, but some are entirely sincere and the percentage goes up among some minority groups. Religion's especially strong among southern blacks. These will not budge on murdering unborn babies, and some vote Republican just to hold this line.
elevator
(415 posts)Exactly when a fetus becomes an "unborn baby".
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)But I'd recommend not bothering them. I mean, what'd you gain by it?
BeyondGeography
(39,390 posts)Misogyny knows no color.
Hugin
(33,222 posts)
"New virus cases are stabilizing, at a high level."
Since when? Clear denial.
What a soft peddle article.
Response to Hugin (Reply #2)
Miguelito Loveless This message was self-deleted by its author.
bullwinkle428
(20,631 posts)look at the "Daily New Cases in the U.S." graph at Worldometers, and tell me how that can be described as "stabilizing".
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Hugin
(33,222 posts)And now they're playing that as 'controlled'.
When, it by definition is not controlled for anything above 1.
Yep, and now all of the gibberish in the rags is about the vaccine trials. If these people who are subjects in the tests continue the mask, distancing, and stay home protocols how are they going to see if the vaccine is effective?
Man, I'd sure hate to be in the control group for that test.
TPTB are still trying to out spin a pandemic in deference to a High Dow. Like that's all that matters as an indicator of the economy as a whole.
groundloop
(11,529 posts)I actually submitted my name for the test but apparently wasn't chosen.
The purpose of the trial is to track your body's antibody production once the vaccine is administered. If you produce adequate antibodies for a long enough period of time then the vaccine has done its' job.
Hugin
(33,222 posts)Too bad if it's the wrong antibodies.
But, I guess that's for future trials to sort out.
I'm still wondering about the testing. There are several reports out that indicate COVID may have been around since the Summer of 2019. Such as the report which found evidence there were approximately 170 people who used the facilities at Yosemite National Park in July of that year. So, how do they sort out people who may have had the disease and are now testing positive vs people who have just contracted the disease?
Is being symptomatic the call? Are they calling people who may have had and recovered from the disease previously and testing positive as currently infected and asymptomatic?
I know you probably don't know the answer, but, I've been pondering the possibility.
Kahuna
(27,312 posts)that people support trump because of the pandemic stimulus.
kacekwl
(7,024 posts)trump had his way they would have got nothing. It would have gone to Tim Apple, Bezos and the poor corporations struggling through the China virus.
JI7
(89,281 posts)Kahuna
(27,312 posts)may not even be actual voters.
ecstatic
(32,760 posts)from their perceived group. One of my coworkers was born and raised in Mexico, but you better not dare call her Hispanic or Latina. She identifies as a white republican, end of story.
Then you have unstable/confused individuals like Kanye West, although it appears Kanye is off the trump train.
Despite their issues, I don't see the numbers holding for much longer. Just as Kanye saw the light, so too will the others as reality continues to force its way through.
Baitball Blogger
(46,775 posts)38% fervent white support, 30% latino vote and 10% black American support.
groundloop
(11,529 posts)madville
(7,413 posts)At around 50-42 over Biden.
a la izquierda
(11,802 posts)But Latinos grouped as one homogenous group is an issue. Cubans and Venezuelans in Miami are one bloc. Mexicans who migrated legally are another, and tend to be more conservative.
For the rest, Trump is probably fucked.
Hugin
(33,222 posts)aside from women (who aren't really a minority either).
But, you know the Republicans who only care which of the four countries of Mexico they came from.
edhopper
(33,649 posts)Latino support for Trump was already at historic lows, Gary Segura, dean of the Luskin School of Public Affairs at U.C.L.A. and co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions, told me. Theres just not that much room for them to move down.
I think among Latinos, this accounts for Conservative Cubans and others and the anti-abortion Catholics and Evangelicals.
8% to 10% of the black vote is the historical average, again mainly an anti-abortion vote. Even Romney got 6% against Obama.
tenderfoot
(8,438 posts)eom
uponit7771
(90,370 posts)... and doesn't fall no matter what.
Communication legislation has to center around media outlets who've alinged their messages with political outfits