Nate Silver's Now-cast: POTUS at 94.4%

[FourScore]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/19/1134143/-Nate-Silver-s-Now-cast-POTUS-at-94-4

Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 06:27 PM PDT
Nate Silver's Now-cast: POTUS at 94.4%
by ericlewis0

Short but sweet:

94.4% !!!!! To Romney's 5.6%.
Pretty sure that's the highest this number has been. It represents President Obama's chances if the election were held today.

Nate's Nov.6 forecast also has a new bounce for POTUS - back up to better than three-to-one odds.
Obama: 75.2%, Romney: 24.8%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Donate to re-elect President Obama here:
http://www.barackobama.com

[M_M]

1. Kick

+ Rec!

[Tigress DEM]

2. Get your absentee ballots in TODAY!!!!

[bluestateguy]

3. After a few days of slippage he picked up in the Nov. 6 forecast

The polls in VA, OH and FL must have helped.

[jimlup]

4. I'm getting nervous about Florida

And as a resident of Michigan I've noticed the Romney PAC's are running ad buys in Michigan again.

[ErikJ]

5. Another Alf Landon?

1936 he got 8 electoral votes. FDR won.

[Orrex]

6. I have a feeling that the margin of error is 5.6%

[Tx4obama]

7. LOL!!! Good one :) n/t

[MrModerate]

8. Hooray! However . . .

The House, The Senate, the state legislatures, the Governors' offices.

That's where all Romney's money is going to go once the rats figure out that the ship is, in fact, sinking.

[lesgensvontgagner]

9. perfect

perfect

[Manifestor_of_Light]

10. Diff between Nowcast and Nov 6 cast?

Would like to know what Nov. 6 cast is.
Is it a projection of today's trends or what?

[Hokie]

11. Now Cast vs. November 6

The Now Cast is based on current polling data and is the forecast if the election were held today. The November 6 forecast factors in economic data and trends. Nate explained that there was a not so good manufacturing output number that had lowered his November 6th prediction. I expect as we get closer to November and the polls hold his forecast will go up accordingly.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

12. Thanx. Considers other data.

Nate Silver must be a real statistics nerd.
Freddie Gauss would be proud of him.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss