Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico DUers pay attention

[malaise]

to the one expected to develop in the GOM




From NOAA

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic,
Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to cross the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If current trends continue,
advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development of the
system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Budi]

1. Thanks. I've been watching this as it's making it's way ..

Seems to be a few others in the distant to keep an eye on.

Appreciate your post

[area51]

2. Yikes.

I'm definitely keeping my eye on both disturbances.

[malaise]

3. They expect #2 to fizzle out by Saturday

That's very good news for Jamaica and Cuba - We'll see

#1 shouldn''t be a major event but it could create serious floods in Texas and they sure can't handle that now

[malaise]

4. More here - and we now have TS Gonzalo

https://www.local10.com/weather/2020/07/22/tropics-are-heating-up-gonzalo-likely-to-form-soon/
<snip>
The tropical disturbance that moved over South Florida yesterday has an opportunity to organize in the central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The center of the disturbance is well west of the Florida peninsula, but it’s dragging a tail of moisture behind it. That moisture tail will keep clouds and tropical downpours in the South Florida forecast at least through tomorrow.

People along the Texas coast should stay informed. The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a good chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm. If it gets a name, it would likely be Hanna.

Well out in the tropical Atlantic, more than 1,000 miles east of the Caribbean islands, Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed. The system is moving toward the west in an environment generally favorable for strengthening. At least for the next few days. Its satellite presentation looks quite healthy.

The system is quite small, so it can spin up quickly, but it can also die off quickly. Small storms can’t protect themselves from dry air or hostile upper winds as well as large ones can. As a result, the factors that affect a small system’s strength can be subtle, and impossible to forecast.

[Baclava]

5. How about the two glorious months of ZERO activity we've had thx to that Saharra dust! Yippee