KS-02 Moves to Lean Republican
Topeka might be the site of 2020's nastiest soap opera of a House race. On Wednesday, Watkins was charged with felony voter fraud for casting a ballot in a 2019 Topeka city council race while registered to vote at a UPS Store. Watkins claims the charges are politically motivated because local DA Mike Kagay shares a consultant with his primary opponent, but this is just one of the freshman's many problems.
GOP state Treasurer Jake LaTurner is challenging Watkins in the August 4 primary and has been on air savaging Watkins over the UPS Store, owning two homes in Alaska (and none in Kansas) and for "pitching himself to Democrats as a pro-abortion candidate right before running as a Republican" in 2018. That year, Watkins beat Democrat Paul Davis by less than a point after winning a fractured GOP primary.
In truth, Watkins only won the 2018 GOP primary with 27 percent because his father, a Topeka endocrinologist, funded a Super PAC for his son despite Watkins living in Alaska and Massachusetts most of the past two decades. Now Watkins's father is under FEC investigation for making illegal "straw man" donations in 2018 and Watkins must fend for himself, accusing LaTurner of running for three offices in two years.
Two weeks out, it's hard to see Watkins as anything other than an underdog in the primary. His best hope might be that Dennis Taylor, a former state labor secretary under Gov. Sam Brownback, splits the anti-Watkins vote and allows the incumbent to hang on with a plurality. But LaTurner, who was able to carry funds over from an aborted Senate bid, has statewide name ID and the backing of the Kansas Farm Bureau.
Waiting in the wings is Democratic Topeka Mayor Michelle de la Isla, who has raised $694,000 and has EMILY's List's endorsement. Considering Trump carried the district by 18 points in 2016, she almost certainly needs to face Watkins to have a chance. If Watkins wins the primary, it could be a Toss Up. If Watkins loses, Republicans would remain strongly favored. For now, it's in our Lean Republican column.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-20-races-move-towards-democrats
