Texas is a swing state in 2020, new polls reveal

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

New CBS News/YouGov polls show President Donald Trump is in trouble in three states he won in 2016. He's tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in Arizona (46% to 46%), a state he won by four points in 2016. Trump's down 48% to 42% in Florida, a state he took by a point in 2016.

But it's the third state, Texas, where the eye popping result comes from. It's Trump 46% to Biden's 45%, a result well within any margin of error.

It's pretty clear looking at the data that Texas is a swing state in the 2020 election. The 2020 campaign could be the first time Democrats captured the Lone Star State in a presidential election since 1976.

The CBS News/YouGov poll is not an outlier over the last month. There have been eight polls released publicly since the beginning of June. The result is that Biden and Trump are basically tied, with Biden up by a mere 0.3 points in Texas.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/texas-is-a-swing-state-in-2020-new-polls-reveal/ar-BB16EfY9?li=BB141NW3&ocid=DELLDHP

[rockfordfile]

1. Don't buy it

[Awsi Dooger]

3. It's a swing state as long as a Democrat leads by 8 points nationally

That makes perfect sense. Texas is hardly a swing state in 50/50 terrain.

I don't think Biden will win by 8 points nationally so I expect Biden to lose Texas by 3 points. That was my projection for 2020 after Beto fell 2 points short.

Long term trend positive but still too early. I just looked at Texas Politics Project report, the June statewide survey, and it had 43% of Texans labeling themselves conservative or lean conservative. That reality is more significant than the polling. States do not become swing states until that number is 37% or lower. For example, Florida has 37% conservatives and we know how much trouble we have there.

[EarlG]

2. That's the second or third

good Texas poll I’ve seen for Biden in the last couple of days... waiting to see if it becomes a trend.

[Gothmog]

4. Texas is a battleground state

We have been working for a long time to flip Texas and we are seeing results.

There are demographic trends that have made clear that Texas will be a blue state. For example the rural vs. Urban mix has been changing

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Texas is also becoming more diverse

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