POLITICO: "We think the 2020 presidential race leans toward Democrat Joe Biden as the favorite."

[brooklynite]

From the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump’s standing with voters has suffered. Trump’s poll numbers on the coronavirus and the civil unrest regarding racial injustice are consistently underwater, suggesting Americans believe he has failed to lead on the two dominant issues facing the country.

With Americans more dissatisfied than ever after four months since the coronavirus became a dominant force in the country — and with the same period of time to go until Election Day — the shift toward Democrats is both real and durable, though it’s not irreversible.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/president/

Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, Texas rated LEAN R
Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona rated TOSSUP
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada rated LEAN D

[regnaD kciN]

1. Hate to point it out...

...but if Democrats only win the "lean D" states, while Republicans take all the "tossups" and "lean R"s...Trump still wins narrowly, with Wisconsin proving the decider.

In other words, we're nowhere near out of the 45 forest yet, even with the state of things now. We can't afford to sit back and plan our election night victory parties.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. I think it's highly unlikely it will be that close, especially as more die and UI runs out nt

[BGBD]

3. I think

Politico is being much more conservative in their estimates than polls would suggests.

Truth, right now, is that those Lean R states are the tossups. Biden leads in the polling average in GA, for example and there have been some high quality polls there.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. The Lean R list is hardly toss up

Trump is betting favorite in all of those states. There is a huge difference between polling and favoritism. The latter takes all the fundamental factors into account while too many people act as if polling tells the full story. Georgia polling has a long history of overstating the Democrat. I have mentioned that since joining this site in 2002.

My favorite political wagers are when I either ignore the polling completely or seriously devalue it in favor of the long term foundational realities of a state, specifically the ideological split.

[BGBD]

10. Bet however you want

Polls are much more predictive than betting markets.

Georgia and Ohio are dead even toss ups. Wisconsin is as dem leaning as PA or MI and AZ looks to be moving hard to the left.

If you're rating the way Politico is you have to either be betting that the race is going to tighten significantly or that polling is highly biased to Biden. Of course there is an equal chance that this polling is actually biased to Trump or that he isn't able to recover from the past 3 months in time for the election.

Trump is in a historically bad position for an incumbent seeking reelection and that is just the type of scenario where states do things that don't fit their traditional roles.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Long term, the Republicans haven't put up a crazed thief and racist like Trump

as their candidate. Who now has a proven track record of doing awful things as president. So relying on long term ideologies looks shaky.

As far as betting predictions for states go, the Predictit prices - https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election :

Politico 'lean Rep':
Texas Rep 66 Dem 34
Iowa Rep 60 Dem 43
Ohio Rep 58 Dem 45
Georgia Rep 56 Dem 46

Politico 'toss up':
North Carolina (not Iowa, as in the OP list) Rep 43 Dem 59
Florida Rep 41 Dem 60
Arizona Rep 37 Dem 63
Wisconsin Rep 33 Dem 70

So, yes, their 'lean R' list really is more a toss up than their 'toss up' list. The 2 closest races are Georgia and Ohio.

[Tercules]

4. I don't think it's in the cards this time.

A good percentage of independents and center-right voters were strongly anti-Hillary. That's not a factor this time... Biden doesn't inspire the same level of vitriol. Another good portion of them were throwing a middle finger to both parties, hoping Trump would, for all his flaws, shake up Washington. Well he did, but not in a good way obviously. Add in his handling of the Coronavirus and I just think it's one in a million he gets reelected. I have several moderate conservative friends and all of them are exasperated with him. One says he will vote for Biden, a couple others say they might not vote at all.

I see only 2 viable paths: Something triggers mass riots near election day, or else one of the liberal SCOTUS members dies and that becomes a laser focus for conservative turnout (though we can't expect republicans to honor "no supreme court nominations in an election year" so maybe that's moot).

[JNelson6563]

5. And we'll do all we can to prevent it. --Politico

[SiliconValley_Dem]

6. exactly. Politico and a couple of others like The Hill are dangerous because they hide their

intent better than Fauxnews or other winger media

[JNelson6563]

13. Yes! The Hill, those fuckers.

[diva77]

7. Secretaries of State according to party:

https://www.nass.org/membership
ohio R
georgia R
iowa R
texas R
--------
Florida R
Wisconsin D
Iowa R
Arizona D
_______
New Hampshire D
Pennsylvania D
Virginia D
Michigan D
Minnesota D
Colorado D
Nevada R

[Sugarcoated]

11. Blue wall states, PA, WI & MI

were all R Secretaries of State in 2016...

[diva77]

12. very unfortunate

[Sugarcoated]

14. Yes it was

I'm sure they played dirty in as many ways as they could to eek out wins in those three crucial states. With Dem SoS's it will be much harder for them to steal, if not impossible this time.

[diva77]

15. As long as nontransparent voting machines & tabulators are being used to "count" the votes, it's

not necessarily a slam-dunk that the election will be conducted with the utmost integrity even if the SOS is a Dem.

[denem]

9. 538 - Biden: +8.1 WI

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. Correction: you've put Iowa twice - I think it should be North Carolina in Politico's 'tossups' (nt)