I would like to remind those who mention Dukakis' polls

[PCIntern]

that he was ahead coming out of his convention by something like 14 points so what did he do? He went to Tanglewood and listened to classical music (which btw I would LOVE to do) for two weeks while a Bush and Co. did a job on him.

That was exactly why Clinton-Gore at the end of their convention got in the bus and went on the road immediately. They learned from the Dukakis mistake.

[BannonsLiver]

1. Great points

I’d also mention:

1. It was 32 years ago.

2. The cast is different.

3. The circumstances are different.

4. The country is different.

These two elections have fuck all to do with each other.

[PCIntern]

2. Ed Zachary. nt

[Mike 03]

3. I almost just posted on this subject.

It's true. July 1988 Dukakis led by 18 points.

When I read that fact yesterday it did shake me. I was a precinct captain in Pasadena, California for that election, and I remember him being safely ahead but not 18 points ahead--but indeed he was.

I know the situation is different now and there are DU folks who are experts at explaining why two situations are not the same (for example, the McGovern/Nixon election parallel that was written about here quite a bit).

We know about the Willie Horton and Tank ads.

How on god's green earth did Dukakis lose so much ground?

[PCIntern]

5. See above and also

Who was his campaign manager ? Susan Estrich. I rest my case. DU rules forbid me from expressing my feelings about her because she’s ostensibly a dem.

[Mike 03]

7. Yeah, I recall that.

Also, he had a terrible debate question and his answer didn't go over well. You probably remember the one I'm talking about.

Thanks.

It's interesting about Susan Estrich. I never had a negative opinion about her at the time as a person, but she didn't seem super well equipped to manage a presidential campaign. I don't know what's become of her over the last few years.

[Mike 03]

14. Found an interesting article on this subject.

The Curious Case of Susan Estrich
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/style/susan-estrich-feminist-roger-ailes-fox-news.html

Thanks for the heads up. I was not up to date on this.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Poll margins prior to the second convention don't mean much

That is especially true of open races like 1988 and 2000. Both times the party in power held the White House two terms and the outgoing president was popular. Therefore the vice president received a massive poll bounce after that second convention. Gore went from many points behind to many points ahead. And the lead expanded until he sighed it away during debate one.

This cycle is different with an incumbent. Trump will receive a bump that will cut the lead quite a bit. The media will proclaim now we have a horse race.

Just be prepared for that. It is inevitable. This 8-12 point theoretical Biden edge is not going to hold. My neighbor provided the basic reason last night. She sighed and said, "I just wish we had somebody younger."

She is not a youngster herself. I believe she is 63. But she had a proper grip on many aspects last night. I was impressed.

[Mike 03]

11. Thanks. There's a lot of good info in your post.

For the first time ever I've begun hearing a new election trope: presidential elections are won in the spring. Why am I suddenly hearing this for the first time?

Has anybody else heard that before this year?

Presidential elections are won in the spring

Sure sounds nice. Reassuring. Made me feel very confident. But I'm not sure it's correct.



We are really going to have to fight tooth and nail to the very last vote.

This is going to be hard work and a rough few months.

[FDR2020]

6. 2 big diff

There also was no incumbent in that race and the economy wasnt in the toilet like today

[Dirty Socialist]

8. I hate to admit this, but

Bush delivered a good speech at his convention. I didn't agree with it, but it was pragmatic. Bush told us what he would do in his first term. That was one reason for the bounce. The despicable Willie Horton ads, et al, were things Atwater did to help Bush maintain his edge.

Hannity already asked Trump what he would do in his second term. Trump whiffed.

[JCMach1]

13. Not just Atwater. W was heavily involved with the media campaign

One thing he was actually good at...

[DonaldsRump]

9. It is a warning, BUT

The state of the country in 1988 was totally different than in 2020. Bush had Lee Atwater (and I think Roger Stone) to help smear Dukakis, which helped. Most importantly, Bush could run on the Reagan record, which, at least optically, seemed good at the time. By contrast, Trump is the incumbent, having been President during one of the worst times in US history that will be ongoing on and after November 3.

However, your point is well-taken: Joltin' Joe Biden can't rest a moment until November 3. They will be throwing EVERYTHING at him. Kanye West is one (frankly pathetic) example to attempt to split the African American vote, but we can also fully expect massive voter suppression, huge money to buy off voters through pandemic stimulus, dirty tricks, swiftboating, foreign interference, and an October surprise that probably involves a COVID-19 vaccine, plus more.

I also suspect that it is possible that Trump will step down and let Pence run, picking Nikki Haley (after getting a commitment to a post-November 3, 2020 pardon from Pence. That race will be closer than Biden v. Trump, but the state of the country is so bad, that I can't see a "shocker" like this win for Re-dumb-licans (or is it Re-bumble-icans)?

The stakes are enormous for Trump. But they are far more enormous for all persons of goodwill.

[Zambero]

12. Doing a disappearing act is the best thing Trump could do for himself

But of course he won't. He'll be digging a deeper hole every day.

[Midwestern Democrat]

15. What happened in 1976 was in some ways worse - Carter had a 33 point lead over Ford after the

Democratic National Convention and by the end that lead burned all the way down to TWO - yeah, Carter won but almost completely blowing a 33 point cushion certainly reduced the bragging rights.