US Coronavirus deaths per day...

[Amy-Strange]

Last edited Tue Jul 28, 2020, 12:59 PM - Edit history (3)

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SECOND UPDATE

Time magazine has a coronavirus dashboard that gives an updated profile of where we are today, and where we were before:

Times article:

Introducing TIME’s One-Stop Coronavirus Dashboard

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/introducing-times-one-stop-coronavirus-dashboard/ar-BB17hTFu?ocid=msedgdhp


Times Dashboard:

Mapping the Spread of the Coronavirus Outbreak Around the U.S. and the World

https://time.com/5800901/coronavirus-map/



UPDATE

COVID 19 Daily Death rate for Jul 7 (Recorded Jul 08, 01:48 EDT):

1,195.00


Total US Coronavirus Death count:

131,480.0


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PREVIOUS POST
Yesterday, July 3, the total was 635.

Today it's 631, with a total US Coronavirus Death count of 129,434.0
(I don't know why they put .0 at the end? Something to do with science probably.)

The death rate is now 4.63% of total cases.

Last updated: Jul 4 2020, 00:57 EDT

You can find more stats here:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_coronavirus_deaths_per_day
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[Celerity]

1. the overall death rate is no where near 4.63% in reality, millions have had it and were never tested

many of them never even knew they had it

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Didn't CDC Say 8x, About A Week Ago?

If they're right, that's 16 million more cases.

[Amy-Strange]

4. Who are they checking out anyway?

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I'm sure they're checking out health care workers, LE and the fire departments, but it never seems clear to me where all these extra cases are coming from?

Are they going door to door, setting up volunteer stations, or randomly stopping people on the street?
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[ProfessorGAC]

9. Maybe Extrapolation?

From other virulence events, perhaps?
I'm not finding that article quoting that official from CDC, so I don't recall how they determined that.
I do know insurance companies, due to unanticipated deaths, don't believe the official death count in the US.
I've communicated with actuaries at more than one LI company.

[Amy-Strange]

12. I'll bet a lot of the death rate disinformation is...

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when the older generation dies, their relatives are probably thinking that it's just their time and not having them tested.

Not to mention the homeless population.
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[ProfessorGAC]

14. Probable

Dying of pneumonia at 85 isn't all that unexpected, I suppose.
But, hospitals are testing people with respiratory symptoms, if only to determine the need for isolation/sequestration.
And, to properly protect staff.
So, many may be known to have COVID before they die.

[OilemFirchen]

20. Around these parts,

if you're admitted to a hospital, you're given a COVID test and quarantined until the results are known or you're discharged, whichever comes first.

I suspect it's similar in many, if not most, hospitals in the country.

[Nululu]

23. No testing, no knowledge

I doubt relatives have a choice about relatives getting postmortem tests for covid

Even the CDC acknowledges on their website that deaths may be undercounted by 30% or more.

[Celerity]

6. if there have been 10 million total cases, the actual lethality is around 1.3%

Last edited Wed Jul 8, 2020, 01:50 PM - Edit history (1)

16 million cases would make the lethality around 0.8%. The vast, vast majority (almost all in multiple nations) is in the oldest half of the population, and the vast majority above 45 to 50 years of age.

Here in Sweden, with basically no lock-down, no masks, most places still open, and the all the under-high school level schools never closed we have had one death under 20, and that was a 4 year old a couple months back with multiple comorbidities. Zero deaths in the school age cohort of 5 years old to 20yo, 8 deaths aged 20 to 29, and 16 deaths aged 30 to 39. That is a total of 25 deaths under 40 years of age (which is half the entire population). 25 deaths out of over 5 million people under 40 years of age. That is a rate of 1 death per 200,000. Under 50 years of age there have only been 69 total deaths. Almost 99% of the deaths here have been over 50 years of age, 96% over 60 years of age, 89% over 70 years of age. 68% were over 80yo, 26% of all COVID-19 deaths were over 90 tears of age.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa



In the US, due to a lack of testing and asymptomatic, a very conservative number would be 6 million cases. at a 5% death rate that works out to 300,00, not the 130,000 it actually is. I think it is likely that at least 10 million people in the US have had it, making a mortality rate of around 1.3%, and that rate is massively skewed to the over 45yo cohorts (especially the over 55yo ones.) The US does have a very slightly higher death rate for the under 40yo, under 35yo cohorts than Sweden does, but that is easily explained as the average US citizen is more unhealthy and has poorer healthcare than an average Swede is and does.

[Amy-Strange]

10. Definitely worth knowing, but...

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remember, it's also been said that the death rate is actually higher than been reported.
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[Amy-Strange]

3. You're probably right, but...

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I'm just posting the stats from this one site.

If you have a better site, I'd love to check it out, and please, check my link and double check my stats. I always want other people to do that.

Always question everything, including what you believe.

But regardless, thank you for sharing.
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[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. That is not to deny the OPost figure, is it. There are two death rates.

One is per detected cases. That what is usually meant when death rate is discussed.

The other is your figure which is per actual cases. It is the more desirable figure to know but at this point it is inscrutable. The ratio of true cases to known cases varies from time to time and from place to place. It is only estimable after the fact and even then will have bounds of uncertainty around it.

The problem is that the per-actual adds another layer of uncertainty onto the detected figure (which has uncertainty) which is based on an already clouded official death count. A triple layer or triple cloud of uncertainty makes the final figure effectively meaningless.

[Amy-Strange]

8. Well said, and...

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thank you for sharing.
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[Amy-Strange]

7. Plus, some people are also saying that the death count is actually higher

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There's certainly a lot of ambiguity in what the stats really are.
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[Nululu]

13. 10x normal number dying at home in NY at height of pandemic

Deaths are much higher. We don't want to know but deaths are many times those shown but appear as pneumonia or heart attacks w/out civid tests.

[Amy-Strange]

15. Exactly

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See: Post 12. I'll bet a lot of the death rate disinformation is...
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[csziggy]

16. The OP is reporting the confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths

Since there have been an unknown number of cases that were never confirmed or reported and an equally known number of deaths that were not attributed to Covid19, that is the best that can be reported accurately.

Although the number of cases is most likely significantly higher than confirmed, the lack of testing means we may never know how many have had the virus or how many died from it. That's the same as the speculations about how many had the "Spanish" flu or died from it, or the reported deaths from the San Francisco earthquake and its aftermath.

Just recently there was an article in which deaths at the time of the Black Death in London were revised upwards as wills from that period were examined. Sorry, just did a search for it and can't find it.

[Celerity]

18. the non reported cases are at a vastly higher rate than the non attributed deaths nt

[csziggy]

19. Yes, but since they are unreported they cannot be quantified nt

[Celerity]

21. doesn't matter, the lethality rate is nowhere near 5% is is simply wrong to push that line

people are too invested in trying to drive up every single negative stat to non realistic numbers

it ends up being counterproductive, as fools like MAGATs will turn around and use it against us when those numbers never occur

the same thing happened earlier on when you had merchants of doom trying to push a figure of 5 million or so US deaths by spring 2021 as taking a woefully UNDERCOUNTING stance, that is would be 9 or 10 million dead by then, which just is madness and fear-mongering

recently (maybe 30 to 45 minutes ago or so) on MSNBC a doctor just said it is probably around 1% or so lethality in reality and the other panellists agreed

[Nululu]

24. Look at the excess death rate

They look at average death rate to calculate excess.

[Recursion]

25. But when we say "flu has a 0.01% fatality rate" that means confirmed cases and confirmed deaths

That, I think, is the real point there: apples to apples this is orders of magnitude deadlier than infuenza.

[Celerity]

26. Sorry, I am not playing these semantic games. Since I posted this I have seen over 10 doctors say

the actual lethality rate is around 1 percent, or even lower. Just saw it again on MSNBC 15 or so minutes ago.

I am not going to be gaslit into some fear mongering hype that some (not saying you btw) are trying (and have been trying since this all started) to stir up. The reality is bad enough as it is. There is no need to push problematic and dodgy angles such as the R-naught is over 6 or 7 (it is nowhere near that), or that there will be 9 or 10 million dead in just the US by spring 2021, or that 5% of infections (with no qualifying statements) result in death. This thread is far from the only one that contains the last one. People have flat out said it kills one in 20 (and make no differentiation between tested cases and all cases) which is simply ludicrous. It is fear mongering and detracts from the legitimacy of genuine concerns and warnings.

[Amy-Strange]

11. Regardless of the actually death rate, here are some more scary things to consider...

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1) 631 deaths averages out to 12.62 deaths per state, per day, or roughly 50 people every two hours.

2) If you study the chart, the death count goes down, and then shoots up again, over and over.

Right now, July 4th, we're on a downward course...
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[Bettie]

17. This thing hangs on for a long time

do the math with "Cases which had an outcome".

A whole lot of the cases are still active, so we don't know the ultimate death rate.

[uponit7771]

22. Right !! The young might be dying slower now ... Also we know more people got it in NY than were tes

..
So the CFR going down isn't a surprise

The number of hospitalizations us horrible now

[Amy-Strange]

27. Kick

[Nululu]

28. #1 OSHA complaint is people refusing to wear masks

Today 1:8 deaths is covid related, but that's not enough for the mask refusing death cult.

[Amy-Strange]

29. It is like a death cult, huh? n/t

[Nululu]

30. Might as well play Russian Roulette

Or get drunk and drive home. For some demented reason they think they're safe.

[Amy-Strange]

31. I think we should cram them all into one room, and...

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see what happens.
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[Nululu]

32. Unfortunately they'll kill others

Your virus protection improves by over 65% by wearing a mask.

Awful people

[Amy-Strange]

33. Not if we don't let them out, and...

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everyone who doesn't want to wear a mask will also be sent there.

Let them kill each other and leave the rest of us good guys alone.
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[Nululu]

34. Can't quite go there yet.

We've had enough camps here.

I would like those lying mask avoiders arrested.

[Amy-Strange]

35. I'm not either, but...

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isn't them being arrested the same as what I'm sayin?

Personally, I think they should be charged with attempted manslaughter.
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[Nululu]

36. Difference is they'll be released and pay a fine

The maskless risk nothing if they aren't arrested.

[Amy-Strange]

37. Charge them with attempted Manslaughter n/t

[Amy-Strange]

38. Introducing TIME's One-Stop Coronavirus Dashboard

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Introducing TIME’s One-Stop Coronavirus Dashboard

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/introducing-times-one-stop-coronavirus-dashboard/ar-BB17hTFu?ocid=msedgdhp
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