Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

[marmar]

(CNN) Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, where public polling is limited and there's a real chance to shape the conventional wisdom.

Perhaps, it's not surprising then that when one party puts out a lot more internal polls than normal, it is good for their side. Parties tend to release good polling when they have it. Since 2004, there has been a near perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale from -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls released by the Democrats and the November results.

Right now, Democrats and liberal groups are releasing a lot more surveys than Republicans, which suggests the public polling showing Democrats doing well is backed up by what the parties are seeing in their own numbers.

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That's a very bad ratio for Republicans.
Interestingly, Republicans were the ones dominating the polling landscape in the first quarter of the year. From January through March, Republican and conservative groups released 10 polls compared with the Democrats' 2. ...........(more)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html

[mucifer]

1. My brother told me Dukakis was 18 points ahead in the polls at this point. That's without the

insane voter suppression.

[demosincebirth]

2. Then he was pictured riding in the tank.

[marmar]

3. And Willie Horton.

[dalton99a]

11. +1. Trump tried that route using a Mexican immigrant in the midterms

[mucifer]

4. yup. People are so stupid. That's all it takes. So we have to keep that in mind

[jaysunb]

6. That and Willie Horton. Nt

[Mike 03]

5. Just found a poll at random from July 1988

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/26/us/dukakis-lead-widens-according-to-new-poll.html

That is a little bit scary. I had no idea he was so far ahead at this point.

[mucifer]

8. Yup we don't know what is in store for us from this evil efwads.

[nevergiveup]

9. If I remember correctly

this was following the Democratic convention so the numbers did reflect a certain degree of post convention boost but regardless the direction the election took after this polling was horrifying.

[CanonRay]

7. There were a lot more undecided voters back then.

Huge swings were possible.

[Norbert]

10. Poppy was also a skilled and experienced candidate in relatively good health

unlike the bumbler-in-chief.

[Demsrule86]

12. We didn't have a pandemic and depression levels of unemployment nor civil unrest.

In fact George Bush I after having a huge lead after going into Kuwait during his reelection campaign and having huge popularity in the polls lost because we were heading towards recession. And it is much worse this year.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

13. Good