I think people are WAY too hopeful about Trump's tax returns being a smoking gun...

[brooklynite]

Point 1. YOU won't see them. Unless they're entered as evidence in a criminal matter, they will NOT be a matter of public record, nor should they be (unless you want Republicans to be able to release the tax filings of the Democrat of your choice).

Point 2. The subpoenaing of Trump's tax records (what the SC case is about) are not the only way to show tax fraud. The IRS (in Obama's Administration) had the ability to and probably did audit his tax returns for truthfulness. The NYS Dept of Taxation and Finance did likewise with his State returns. The idea that there's tax fraud just waiting to be discovered is frivolous. Unless the argument is that something in his tax returns reflects some OTHER criminal action, I'm not convinced there's anything he's at risk for.

Point 3. Even if there IS tax fraud it's very unlikely that Trump would go to jail. He doesn't prepare his tax returns; his accountants do. He'll say that he simply signed the forms that they gave him. You'd have to prove that he knowingly misled them with the information he provided (which, again, could have already been discovered when the taxes were filed).

[2naSalit]

1. The issue is starting to

smell like a red herring though I am not firm on that idea it could be a big distraction and maybe not. It's all coming out sooner than most would think. I am wondering what big thing is coming in the next few weeks and then I am anticipating something serious to go down around Nov. 10th, just an inkling I have.

[leftieNanner]

6. November 10th?

What is significant for you about that date?

[2naSalit]

14. ...

astrological conditions and events that are bound to take place between now and then. Like I said, it's more of a hunch but it's one that's lingered since it first showed up.

[leftieNanner]

22. Interesting

That may be the day that the final tally of votes is released and he realizes that he really is the Biggest Loser.

I definitely agree with you that we need to listen to our intuition and instincts. They are almost always right.

[2naSalit]

23. It's definitely a faxtor

in my survival so far.

[Polly Hennessey]

34. I am beginning to agree with you.

Starting to smell like a red herring and, certainly, a distraction. There is probably no there there. He will get a concerned hand slap.

[dutch777]

2. Everything you say is logical and may be true....but it WILL piss Trump off...SO worth it!

Love it when courts, the higher the better, give Trump the finger. The tighter he stays wound around the axle of CRAZY, the less other harmful stuff he can get done.

[soothsayer]

8. This

[zipplewrath]

3. His net worth

I suspect the most fundamental thing will be to expose his actual self worth. He may not be as wealthy as he claims. Of course at this point it is relatively meaningless as the virus has all but destroyed his reputation.

[brooklynite]

10. But that's precisely the sort of thing you would never learn.

Congress can obtain tax records for oversight purposes. They cannot release them publicly.

(a) General rule Returns and return information shall be confidential, and except as authorized by this title—
(1) no officer or employee of the United States,
(2) no officer or employee of any State, any local law enforcement agency receiving information under subsection (i)(1)(C) or (7)(A), any local child support enforcement agency, or any local agency administering a program listed in subsection (l)(7)(D) who has or had access to returns or return information under this section or section 6104(c), and
(3) no other person (or officer or employee thereof) who has or had access to returns or return information under subsection (c), subsection (e)(1)(D)(iii), paragraph (10), (13), or (14) of subsection (k), paragraph (6), (10), (12), (13)(A), (13)(B), (13)(C), (13)(D)(i), (16), (19), (20), or (21) of subsection (l), paragraph (2) or (4)(B) of subsection (m), or subsection (n),
shall disclose any return or return information obtained by him in any manner in connection with his service as such an officer or an employee or otherwise or under the provisions of this section. For purposes of this subsection, the term “officer or employee” includes a former officer or employee.

[zipplewrath]

25. Because leaks never happen

More importantly, it will become "common knowledge" in DC.

[brooklynite]

27. Would it be okay to leak your tax returns? Joe Biden's?

If the leak was tracked to a House member or staffer, would you be willing to have them go to jail (the likely result)?

[zipplewrath]

28. Do you think it won't leak?

I'm just saying, if it gets to congress, alot of people are going to know.

[LanternWaste]

40. Reductio ad absurdum

You feelin' ok? You seem off your game. Maybe another anecdotal allegation about a power-lunch with some Very Important People could get that mojo back for ya. Good luck!

[brooklynite]

42. I feel well enough not to resort to personal digs...

...and I'll note that you didn't challenge the content of my post.

[PTWB]

43. I'll voluntarily leak mine in exchange for someone leaking Trump's.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Tax fraud isn't the worst of it.

Tax returns won't necessarily reveal evidence of the most likely crime of money-laundering, which he could have been doing for the Russians through years of dodgy real estate deals, because all of that would be disguised in transactions through shell corporations. If all of the schedules are included, a good forensic accountant might be able to find evidence of questionable transactions, but none of it is likely to be obvious.

[ScratchCat]

16. The land deal in South Flordia

where he sold the property to the Russian oligarch for like 10x what it was worth is clear money laundering or disguising a loan with a sanctioned bank. I actually don't know how he even got away with that. Its clear it was the way to funnel him a loan without calling it a loan. He then put it into his casinos and golf courses. Classic money laundering or the way to get a loan from a sanctioned bank.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. That's what I was thinking of, and there are probably many more.

However, there might not be clear evidence of these kinds of transactions in the tax returns; it would be disguised as something else.

[dflprincess]

5. I haven't necessarily thought there would be something criminal

I have thought they would show he doesn't have the money he pretends to have.

[Solomon]

17. And that he pays no taxes.

[jeffreyi]

7. Why haven't they leaked a long time ago?

[mr_lebowski]

9. He doesn't need to go to jail for his taxes being released to mess him up

If they point to ways in which his actions as President can logically be presumed to be influenced by his personal finances, if the House Dems get to see them, they'll open investigations into those matters ... which, while technically may not be illegal ... could prove highly detrimental come November.

Lets also not forget how hard he's been fighting to keep them from being released.

There's SOMEthing there, even if they just show he's actually poor, or worse, was WAY poorer ... until becoming POTUS ... it'll come out if they're released to Congress. Either of those being true and proven by tax returns ... will hurt his chances of re-election.

[Cicada]

11. The returns might lead to non tax crimes

[Eliot Rosewater]

12. Translation, if this is about ANY democrat it finishes them overnight...

But it is about a con, and this con especially.

Just think about the things they wanted to remove Obama over, or the things they would have used to remove Hillary if they could.

[genxlib]

13. Point 4

Don't assume that everything in the tax returns will be truthful.

I agree with you. I always thought the tax returns were nothing to look forward to. If they were sanitized enough to give to the IRS in the first place then they couldn't be that juicy.

Nevertheless, I hope he gets it handed to him by the Supreme Court just to send him the message that he can't treat the Congress like some meddlesome kids down the street.

[ScratchCat]

15. I agree and disagree

I agree that we will probably not see them, and certainly not in the foreseeable future.

However, there are two issues which can be determined within literally minutes that mean everything:

- Did he write off the hush money payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen MacDougal as "business expenses"?

- What type of loans does he have with, and what type of income does he have coming in from Russia, Saudia Arabia and UAE?

Both of these issues deal with criminality and obviously impeachable conduct.

[Walleye]

18. I think the real question is. Is the president above the law?

[Johnny2X2X]

19. No one will see them until after the election

Even if the SCOTUS rules against him.

[Bleacher Creature]

21. I would settle for a smocking gun.

In all seriousness, you're probably right. That said, I have to think that he wouldn't have fought tooth and nail to keep them confidential if there weren't something pretty damning in them (although to him, not actually being a billionaire is probably worse than any crime).

[Wounded Bear]

24. There is principle involved, and precedent to be set...

if a public servant cannot be scrutinized by Congress through examination of his financial dealings, there is no protection from fraud and grift at all.

Regardless of what happens to Trump, all future government officials and candidates must be fearful of this scrutiny and subject to it.

Public servants cannot be allowed private criminality.

[redstatebluegirl]

26. Me too!

[Backseat Driver]

29. You might be right...

1. Both parties traditionally revealed several to many years of returns if they wanted to be POTUS - wasn't any "rule of law" just a gesture of transparency. But for personal chit chat out in the wild, one's acquaintances, friends, family or co-workers, or bar flies, there's that "privacy" thing like medical records, even as mundane as the nightmare of IRS audits. Don't ask; don't tell - LOL!

2. Even when warned about the highly suspect gains purported by Bernie's clients, the SEC didn't do much to protect later investors from the likes of Bernie Maddoff's Ponzi scheme--whoa--the beloved father figure of NASDAQ. Can't be...

3. Dimwit Donnie's personal bean counter and CFO of his Organization, Allen Weisselberg, got full immunity for cooperating in Cohen's case and, I believe, still lurks behind the family's businesses. His "fixer," fine fellow that he was, Michael Cohen, got convicted and sentenced; went to jail, but was released in May to monitored "home confinement" because of COVID-19" where he is likely to stay to serve out his short jail term. The rest of those variously charged and/or convicted, pleas copped or not, seem poised for pardons if Barr has anything to say about "things."

One can only hope there will be lots more itchy wool to unravel when the American public unseats in 2020 Putin's choice of 2016!

[sfstaxprep]

30. He Is Still A Failure & Will Lose, Hopefully Badly

Regardless of whether this bears any fruit, he still a Loser.

[grantcart]

31. Every Democrat running for Pres has and should disclose their tax returns

Your entire discussion. Is surprisingly 100% off point

At no point has any national commentator suggested tax fraud.

It is about

1) conflict of interest. Where is his debt? Is he getting massive loans from banks doing business with Russia

2) laundering defacto bribes? This is what got Cunningham prison time. Selling assets at inflated rates

3) is he taking unethical but technically legal deductions

4) what is his actual tax rate

5) how much did he personally profit from the tax reforms he passed

And yes everyone from both parties running, appointed or elected to Pres or VP should (and since Nixon have) made their returns public

BTW Trump ran for office promising to continue the practice.

[themaguffin]

32. I don't expect the court to rule in favor of their release. He's not a Democrat.

[Grasswire2]

33. Why would anyone think he has TOLD THE TRUTH to the IRS?????

He lies about everything.

It's a red herring.

[Arazi]

35. If Vance gets an indictment, the underlying evidence (the taxes) should be public

[cbdo2007]

36. If he got loans from Russians through Deutsche Bank right before the election...

would that show up in his taxes? I don't think it's the taxes that are a smoking gun, but they are an important piece of the puzzle that are going to open up the rest of his finances to scrutiny.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

37. #SCOTUS will issue orders tomorrow morning at 9:30 am Eastern. Next day for opinions: Monday, July 6

LuxuryAvenueHat Retweeted

No new #SCOTUS decisions until next Monday probably means the Court won’t be *done* next Monday, either—and will have to add at least one more day next week.

It’ll be the first time the Court issues merits rulings after July 4 since 1986—when it still heard 150+ cases each Term.

#SCOTUS will issue orders tomorrow morning at 9:30 am Eastern, but next day for opinions won't be until Monday, July 6, at 10 am. Still waiting on several high-profile rulings, including on Trump's tax returns, "faithless electors," & ACA's birth-control mandate.

Link to tweet

[crickets]

38. K&R for the post and the discussion.

[LanternWaste]

39. Try to see the forest as well as your trois-point trees.

And only last week, you thought Trump wouldn't even see, let alone notice BLM being painted in front of his property. Yet here he is today, rage tweeting about something you told us he'd ignore.

I'm surprised though, that you miss the larger point of the returns... forcing him to tilt at windmills denies him the opportunity to use his bully pulpit to complain about that which could help his campaign. Forcing him to react to a thousand fleas is a better tactic than allowing him to act on what he wants to.

Try to see the forest as well as the trees.

[Lucinda]

41. He is crazed in his efforts to keep it from the public.

There are things that he doesn't want to see the light of day, so the toll it takes on his mental health will have impact on his stability and conduct - regardless of what shows up...

[JI7]

44. What do you mean by smoking gun ? If you mean something that moves his supporters

away from him then there isn't.

[Xolodno]

45. They will show one thing and one thing only.

He's not a Billionaire. Which he will find embarrassing and make some bogus claim how he still is.

And his financial empire may actually smaller than most thought.

We all know that. Nothing really actionable on them.

[Demovictory9]

46. nothing will shake that 39% away from Trump. Better to focus on turnout

there is no amount of corruption, incompetence, clownish behavior that will shake his base away from him. don't need the tax returns... so many other things have been revealed about Trump that would take down another president.

Turn out! Turn out! Turn out!