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Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:35 AM Jun 2020

There are doom and gloom posts all over DU imploring us not to believe the polls. JUST STOP!

First of all the polls in 16 were not that far off in the states that gave Trump his victory...WI, MI and PA. And Hillary was ahead in the national polls and did win the popular vote by three million votes. Also, it was too late for polling to capture the damage Comey did at the end of the campaign. Trump eked out a small victory in the MI, WI and PA ...there likely was cheating involved. But every one of those states now has a Democratic government, and the polls in those states were not off by more than a couple of point

This election is not 16. We have a pandemic, an economic debacle and civil unrest. If one looks at history. Trump is not likely to be elected and the polls show he is losing badly. I celebrate those polls and feel the doom and gloom OP's serve no useful purpose.The posters offer no suggestions about how we avoid 'complacency or over confidence' ...some basically say really why bother as the Russians will make sure Trump wins...so inspiring . Thus I will repeat myself...for the love of Goddess PLEASE STOP!

131 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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There are doom and gloom posts all over DU imploring us not to believe the polls. JUST STOP! (Original Post) Demsrule86 Jun 2020 OP
James Carville was on fire last night on MSNBC saying the same thing. SoonerPride Jun 2020 #1
We are going to win...IMHO. And Trump just finished himself off by putting in a brief to kill the Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #30
This message was self-deleted by its author Silent3 Jun 2020 #129
+1,000 malaise Jun 2020 #2
Yeah I am thinking ignore is my friend. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #31
It's A Psychological Device Used to Maintain Voter Enthusiasm And Foster Turn-Out. jayfish Jun 2020 #3
But Can Have The 'What's THe Use' Opposite Effect Me. Jun 2020 #11
+1 We need to quit discouraging ourselves. lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #23
Exactly Me. Jun 2020 #64
But can have a what's the use affect as the poster below notes. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #33
No one I know has ever been polled. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #4
I get polled all the time. lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #25
Yes but I don't know you. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #27
It is but one tool. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #34
I'm not panicked. Have refused to be panicked. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #40
That is exactly how I feel...we need to turn out the vote...there is a reason the GOP wants fewer Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #89
Thank You, Ma'am The Magistrate Jun 2020 #5
Grant was also excellent at learning from his past mistakes. coti Jun 2020 #8
And how do we do this? What actions do we need to take? Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #90
Thank you sir...and you are exactly right. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #35
I wonder if election fraud will take place anywhere, I wonder. Alex4Martinez Jun 2020 #6
How about advice about how we fight? There is much being done to end voter suppression and the Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #37
Work at the county level first, then state level. It's different everywhere. Alex4Martinez Jun 2020 #76
I watch these things of course. But people have little choice over how they vote...in terms of Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #91
It will take shenanigans for Trump to win Johnny2X2X Jun 2020 #7
And I have always said the path to victory is through WI, PA and MI...I posted state graphics over Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #38
This is a strawman. No one is saying "don't believe the polls." coti Jun 2020 #9
+100000 Celerity Jun 2020 #26
I don't hear that at all. Go figure. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #28
There are DU OP's saying don't believe the polls...the title. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #100
I am saying 16 has nothing to do with this election. They were completely different years...and yes Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #41
+1 uponit7771 Jun 2020 #63
This. n/t ms liberty Jun 2020 #72
There Were 2 OPs That Said Exactly That ProfessorGAC Jun 2020 #82
Exactly! +10000 Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #88
Actually some do say don't believe. the polls...and 2016 is nothing like 2020 Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #87
No. Jirel Jun 2020 #10
Give specifics...working like hell how? By posting gloom and doom constantly? Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #42
Specifics please. What is this "doom & gloom" you speaketh. nt AnotherMother4Peace Jun 2020 #79
Check out OP's... Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #105
What? AnotherMother4Peace Jun 2020 #107
2016 is still deeply disturbing to many if not all Dems. efhmc Jun 2020 #12
Explain the "logic and reason" of Russia not attacking the 2020 presidential election. nt coti Jun 2020 #15
We lost because the left abandoned Hillary and voted for Stein, stayed home or wrote someone in... Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #121
Well these post won't help put Biden in the White House...in fact I believe they hamper the effort. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #43
I will not stop. hamsterjill Jun 2020 #13
This. LakeArenal Jun 2020 #29
A reasonable view point but why should people in Texas vote if they are being told over and over Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #44
All polls I've seen are indicating a strong lead by Biden hamsterjill Jun 2020 #94
Trolls Faux pas Jun 2020 #14
Promoting the message of "don't be complacent" makes us trolls? bullwinkle428 Jun 2020 #16
I Faux pas Jun 2020 #21
No...but I would appreciate a description of how one refrains from being complacent. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #97
Some are people who supported other candidates and want Biden to win but just not by 'that' much, Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #45
No no no - staying vigilant to Putin interference is not the same as "why bother AnotherMother4Peace Jun 2020 #17
Calling out how? Specifics please. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #46
Let me ask you, & specifics please. What are these "doom & gloom posts" you speak of? Specifically AnotherMother4Peace Jun 2020 #55
Every poll with good news is met with dire predictions about 2016 and don't get 'cocky or Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #98
Not specific enough. But do you have a disagreement with not getting "cocky or complacent" - sounds AnotherMother4Peace Jun 2020 #106
This is the problem... Newest Reality Jun 2020 #18
Absolutely, but the doom and gloom OP's discourage voters...one could not the good polls and Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #47
Yes. Newest Reality Jun 2020 #59
Yes. If I have to hear crap about being "complacent" form now until November I will start betsuni Jun 2020 #19
There is a good chance there will be major cheating. coti Jun 2020 #20
It's impossible to get most Americans to vote without making it mandatory. betsuni Jun 2020 #24
We won the house even with the gerrymander...we turned Virginia blue...we can win this. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #103
How did we win the house? We over performed. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #86
That is why I wrote this OP...I was screaming!!!! Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #51
I saw it again today, which will be every day from now on. betsuni Jun 2020 #131
the poll numbers are right so agingdem Jun 2020 #22
Thank you...exactly. Of course we need to do our part...but it is looking good. And Biden is Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #52
I think a lot of the hand wringers agingdem Jun 2020 #71
I work every election...GOTV...data-whatever I can do. But I am really excited this year and that is Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #85
I think once Biden is in the White House agingdem Jun 2020 #114
304 - 227 sarisataka Jun 2020 #32
Oh please, Biden has been leading the entire primary...and 16 is nothing like this year. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #54
This time it's completely different. Kingofalldems Jun 2020 #36
Yes it is a different year. And we have people out there working on voter suppression Stacy Abrams Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #57
That's not what I'm seeing DFW Jun 2020 #39
Every bit of good news (polls and other stuff too) is met with doom and gloom. I bet there are Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #60
I guess I read the wrong threads DFW Jun 2020 #111
I have watched two men who lost the election Miguelito Loveless Jun 2020 #48
I believe in self fulfilling prophecies. If you have no hope and enough people have no hope, Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #61
We have 130 days to go MoonlitKnight Jun 2020 #49
Now this is a reasonable useful post and I agree completely. And I would remind you that 130 days Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #66
It makes Michael Moore happy to see this type of negativity and hopelessness... NurseJackie Jun 2020 #50
Thank you Nurse Jackie...and your post is perfect and true. The constant 'what about 16 ' does Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #68
Also, some of us are still twitchy Bettie Jun 2020 #53
There are not enough 'Trumpers' for the win IMHO. And we have enough misery in our lives without Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #70
Obviously you don't live in a town Bettie Jun 2020 #75
I live in Ohio. If you look at the polls that included Stein...not Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #83
I talk up the hopefulness with every person I meet Bettie Jun 2020 #92
I wish I could make you feel better...living with dread is no way to live. Hubs and I are out of Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #96
We're managing Bettie Jun 2020 #101
Oh I get it and teens are rough...my son who is now a productive citizen sat up in his room and Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #124
They converse occasionally Bettie Jun 2020 #125
So you liked 2016 and want to repeat it. Got it. Ms. Toad Jun 2020 #56
There are more than 10 posts this morning saying essentially that we are going to lose in one Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #73
Agree, plays right into the pukes hand rufus dog Jun 2020 #58
That is how I feel about it. We are and will continue kicking some Trump ass. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #74
Your first statement is 100% false, on the state level the Swing State polls were horrible uponit7771 Jun 2020 #62
How so? Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #77
Each one of them missed the MOE swing to the negative by 3%, that's horrible. Clinton LOST each swin uponit7771 Jun 2020 #84
Yes. While complacency is not good, 2020 is indeed not 2016 at all, and the data show that. Music Man Jun 2020 #65
I agree ...excellent post! Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #78
I'm begging everyone I know to please vote, but... Amy-Strange Jun 2020 #67
Take a look at your post...why is it unfortunate that Washington went to Hillary? Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #80
Because... Amy-Strange Jun 2020 #93
I see ...work down ballot races... Also you can call other states you know. I did when I lived in GA Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #95
Maybe, but all my relatives and everyone else I know... Amy-Strange Jun 2020 #99
Pick state, do some research on the state or maybe you used to live there or pick a candidate you Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #102
GOTV sounds interesting, and... Amy-Strange Jun 2020 #104
You are welcome...be warned some don't answer and some are rude as they are called to much...lists Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #108
Just Vote. chriscan64 Jun 2020 #69
I agree. Everyone here wants Trump gone. But doom and gloom hurt our efforts to get the vote Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #81
Good news is good news, but... Amy-Strange Jun 2020 #109
Yeah not worried about guns...and ignore works. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #116
It's not about the polls, it's about election security, funding for mail-in ecstatic Jun 2020 #110
Having a clear overwhelming victory will help with that...and Stacy Abrams, Obama., and I believe Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #117
It's sound reasoning but but but bucolic_frolic Jun 2020 #112
Yes...they have no shame. I think the polls are correct. Trump is losing. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #118
Lol, yes, lets just think we are 100% sure of winning! Nt USALiberal Jun 2020 #113
It is better than living doom and gloom 24 /7. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #119
they're concern trolls and agents. n/t linda52 Jun 2020 #115
Some are...and the others are truly worried and tend to be pessimistic and some wanted a different Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #120
They're all saying "don't think we've won it and you can stay home" -- we all still need to vote lettucebe Jun 2020 #122
It is still a depressing message and no one will stay home...but some are saying don't believe the Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #123
What some of us were saying edhopper Jun 2020 #126
Everyone bdamomma Jun 2020 #127
This cuts both ways: if Trump's way down in polling, why vote, if it's in the bag? VOX Jun 2020 #128
There's always one faction who think good polls are bad news, and another that thinks... Silent3 Jun 2020 #130

SoonerPride

(12,286 posts)
1. James Carville was on fire last night on MSNBC saying the same thing.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:38 AM
Jun 2020

Last edited Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:21 PM - Edit history (1)

"Stop panicking Democrats.

You are going to win!"

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
30. We are going to win...IMHO. And Trump just finished himself off by putting in a brief to kill the
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:20 PM
Jun 2020

ACA. So now we can run on...vote us in our lose your health insurance. This would affect kids staying on their parents health care as well.

Response to SoonerPride (Reply #1)

jayfish

(10,037 posts)
3. It's A Psychological Device Used to Maintain Voter Enthusiasm And Foster Turn-Out.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:41 AM
Jun 2020

It's, very loosely, like setting your alarm clock 10 minutes ahead to trick yourself into thinking you're late for work every day.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
23. +1 We need to quit discouraging ourselves.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:13 PM
Jun 2020

I've been in such a deep depression since 2016; the only way I can get out of bed in the morning is to persuade myself that there's hope of removing Turd and destroying his RePutin Party.

I have to talk myself off of the ledge every day. Quit telling me to jump.

Me.

(35,454 posts)
64. Exactly
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:04 PM
Jun 2020

we need to raise the enthusiasm gap and get out there and vote in record numbers, overwhelm him with votes so there is no question of who needs to be marched out of the WH. I think we should stop all the debbie downer posts. THey do not help anyone but the Menace in the WH.

LakeArenal

(28,802 posts)
4. No one I know has ever been polled.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:41 AM
Jun 2020

Polls don’t mean a thing to me.

Too many “margin of error” polls.

LakeArenal

(28,802 posts)
27. Yes but I don't know you.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:17 PM
Jun 2020

And by saying “all the time” shows me it’s the same people being polled over and over.

Not a representative sample.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
34. It is but one tool.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:26 PM
Jun 2020

But doom and gloom depresses voter turnout and all these posts offer no advice about what people should other than panicking.

LakeArenal

(28,802 posts)
40. I'm not panicked. Have refused to be panicked.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:43 PM
Jun 2020

Angry mostly.

Whatever emotion, doesn’t mean we don’t need to vote.

I’m absolutely positive Joe will win.

But only if we vote.

2020 is not 2016.20. Despite media’s attempts to have a horse race.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
89. That is exactly how I feel...we need to turn out the vote...there is a reason the GOP wants fewer
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:41 PM
Jun 2020

people voting.

The Magistrate

(95,241 posts)
5. Thank You, Ma'am
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:44 AM
Jun 2020

People convinced they will lose are very good at making that conviction come true. Gen. Grant at the Wilderness exploded at his Army of the Potomac staff, telling them he was tired of being told what daring move or other 'Bobby Lee' was going to pull off soon, and that they ought to get to figuring out what they were going to do to 'Bobby Lee' and do it to him. Overconfidence should be guarded against, an enemy should not be underestimated, but a situation should be looked at dispassionately and judged without fear. We are winning, and we are winning because there are a damned sight more of us than them.

coti

(4,612 posts)
8. Grant was also excellent at learning from his past mistakes.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:48 AM
Jun 2020

I don't think he would say that we shouldn't take the threat from Russia very seriously.

Alex4Martinez

(2,192 posts)
6. I wonder if election fraud will take place anywhere, I wonder.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:45 AM
Jun 2020

Because reliability of polls aside, they're fucking with the legitimacy of elections and this season I fear it will be at historic levels.

So, polls or no polls, even if the polls accurately reflect the intentions of actual voters, we could easily lose if we don't fight at the state and local levels to be sure we aren't fucked, again.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
37. How about advice about how we fight? There is much being done to end voter suppression and the
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:28 PM
Jun 2020

three states that cost Hillary the EC are now in Democratic hands.

Alex4Martinez

(2,192 posts)
76. Work at the county level first, then state level. It's different everywhere.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:23 PM
Jun 2020

The advice is to become engaged locally, is voting electronic where you live? Are the machines reliable? Have there been irregularities in the past and if so will they occur again?

Vigilance at the local level is the best advice I can give. I work with our county elections officer, I would hope that everyone else tries that.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
91. I watch these things of course. But people have little choice over how they vote...in terms of
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:45 PM
Jun 2020

machines. Even votes by mail here use optical scanners but there is a record which is good...Ohio is where I live.

Johnny2X2X

(18,969 posts)
7. It will take shenanigans for Trump to win
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:47 AM
Jun 2020

Biden is too far out in front and there is too little time left for Trump to catch him in any legitimate election.

It will take major cheating , way more than in 2016, for Trump to win. The type of cheating where 80% of the country will be sure that he cheated because there is proof everywhere. In other words, only a coup of our Democracy can save Trump now.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
38. And I have always said the path to victory is through WI, PA and MI...I posted state graphics over
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:32 PM
Jun 2020

and over...If the blue wall holds the GOP are fucked...and we have Democratic governors this year...and why didn't the bad actors save the house if they could? I think we need too have polls watchers.

coti

(4,612 posts)
9. This is a strawman. No one is saying "don't believe the polls."
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:49 AM
Jun 2020

You, on the other hand, are saying that we shouldn't learn from what happened in 2016. I completely disagree. We need to fully recognize the threat Russia's election attacks pose to our democracy.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
100. There are DU OP's saying don't believe the polls...the title.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:00 PM
Jun 2020

"I am calling BS on polls showing Biden way ahead"I am not linking it but here is a title...

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
41. I am saying 16 has nothing to do with this election. They were completely different years...and yes
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:44 PM
Jun 2020

There have been many posts where people explicitly say they don't believe the polls...and worse than that, some claim no matter what we do, we will lose because of the Russians or massive GOP cheating. This sort of thing depresses turnout...it doesn't increase it.

ProfessorGAC

(64,852 posts)
82. There Were 2 OPs That Said Exactly That
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:31 PM
Jun 2020

One was verbatim. "Don't believe the polls" in the title.
So, to say nobody is saying it is false.
In addition, while I agree with your concerns, there is a refusal to believe, among some, that human nature won't make some people to back a winner if they swing vote. People who diligently vote, but aren't committed to one philosophy, are less likely to decide to vote for someone trailing badly. And, they're more likely to want to feel they're part of the solution and vote for the person who has the lead that makes them appear to be obviously the winner.
I think these big poll leads for Biden are a PR weapon, not something to dismiss.
And, the bigger the lead, the harder it is to cheat.

Jirel

(2,014 posts)
10. No.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:51 AM
Jun 2020

Polling margin of error is huge these days. Hillary was also way ahead of Trump in polls. Lack of skepticism is a great way to put people’s guard down, and that can be deadly.

Take back from the polls what matters. Trump is trending down - that’s useful data. Trump is polling loweER in key states. Good news, but don’t trust the spread and keep working like hell in those states because “likely voters” are not the same as “people who actually do show up at the polls and vote.”

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
42. Give specifics...working like hell how? By posting gloom and doom constantly?
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:46 PM
Jun 2020

How does that help. No useful advice is ever given in these posts.

efhmc

(14,723 posts)
12. 2016 is still deeply disturbing to many if not all Dems.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:53 AM
Jun 2020

So logic and reason can't calm that fear until if and when Joe Biden is in the WH.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
121. We lost because the left abandoned Hillary and voted for Stein, stayed home or wrote someone in...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 03:43 PM
Jun 2020

Now, Trump promised manufacturing jobs in hard hit blue wall states who had not recovered that much from then 2008 recession. And some took a chance making the election too close. Sure the Russians had trolls on Facebook and twitter...maybe even here trying to get people to vote for Trump and it worked...but this is a different year. We didn't have a pandemic, economic collapse, social unrest or an incumbent president in. This election is all about Trump and he is losing...a referendum on Trump.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
43. Well these post won't help put Biden in the White House...in fact I believe they hamper the effort.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:47 PM
Jun 2020

hamsterjill

(15,220 posts)
13. I will not stop.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 11:54 AM
Jun 2020

I don’t care about polls. I live in red state Texas and I SEE the idiots who support Trump, actually WORSHIP Trump, on a daily basis. There are a whole hell of a lot of them!

Fuck every last poll out there. All that matters is who is the certified winner after November 3rd. If we want to win, we’ve got to vote in record numbers.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
44. A reasonable view point but why should people in Texas vote if they are being told over and over
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:49 PM
Jun 2020

that it is hopeless which is what some not but some of these OP's

hamsterjill

(15,220 posts)
94. All polls I've seen are indicating a strong lead by Biden
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:51 PM
Jun 2020

Those to me represent a danger that voters will think “Aw, Biden will win anyway, so why should I bother voting”.

It was a tactic used in 2016.

Just vote. Period. Ignore the polls. They mean nothing. They are just someone’s opinion.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
97. No...but I would appreciate a description of how one refrains from being complacent.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:56 PM
Jun 2020

What actions would do this? And how does being happy about a poll encourage complacency? I vote in every election...all of them. I work every election.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
45. Some are people who supported other candidates and want Biden to win but just not by 'that' much,
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:50 PM
Jun 2020

and some may be trolls...who knows? I have not seen but one OP that I though the person might be a troll.

AnotherMother4Peace

(4,237 posts)
17. No no no - staying vigilant to Putin interference is not the same as "why bother
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:00 PM
Jun 2020

as the Russians will make sure Trump wins". Never ever stop being alert and calling out putin/bunker boy/GOP corruption, because they're not stopping. If anything they will just get more devious.

AnotherMother4Peace

(4,237 posts)
55. Let me ask you, & specifics please. What are these "doom & gloom posts" you speak of? Specifically
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:59 PM
Jun 2020

what are the DUers saying in "doom and gloom posts all over DU imploring us not to believe the polls." - that they need to "JUST STOP!"

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
98. Every poll with good news is met with dire predictions about 2016 and don't get 'cocky or
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:57 PM
Jun 2020

complacent...not calling out any DUer but there have been more than ten probably today.

AnotherMother4Peace

(4,237 posts)
106. Not specific enough. But do you have a disagreement with not getting "cocky or complacent" - sounds
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:11 PM
Jun 2020

like prudent advice to me. Ask any athlete or sport enthusiast what happens when one gets "cocky or complacent".

Newest Reality

(12,712 posts)
18. This is the problem...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:01 PM
Jun 2020

This is the problem with going to extremes in various situations and in communication.

In this case, the old adage, hope for the best and prepare for the worst is close to the way to put it.

Is it hard to celebrate and be jubilant about good polling news while also realizing that you have to be part of fulfilling the contract, so to speak, by turning out and doing your part and reinforcing the indications? Can't they both coincide?

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
47. Absolutely, but the doom and gloom OP's discourage voters...one could not the good polls and
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:51 PM
Jun 2020

be pleased and it could make us want to work harder...

Newest Reality

(12,712 posts)
59. Yes.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:00 PM
Jun 2020

Well, I support your OP.

Doom and gloom have no place in this historic battle we face, that's for certain. It sounds like depression and fear my play into that as well and it is understandable that the stress and shock of recent events would induce that.

Here's wishing everyone more intestinal fortitude, solidarity and better focus on the important duty we have to democracy itself.

Maybe the idea of what we may be able to accomplish after we win will also help. The focus on democracy itself is at issue now and we really have to expand and strengthen it in every way so that it does not fail, (perish the thought) and takes us all into the rest of this century with more equality, freedom and prosperity for everyone and for all races which means ALL Americans.

Much work and many changes await and we can do that with the right kind of Executive Branch to lead us into a new cycle of resilience and vision that brings pragmatic results more rapidly than ever before. We can and will do better, if we want.

Eyes on the prize!

betsuni

(25,377 posts)
19. Yes. If I have to hear crap about being "complacent" form now until November I will start
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:08 PM
Jun 2020

screaming and never stop. Biden will win unless there is major cheating.

betsuni

(25,377 posts)
24. It's impossible to get most Americans to vote without making it mandatory.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:13 PM
Jun 2020

Sigh, don't know what to do.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
103. We won the house even with the gerrymander...we turned Virginia blue...we can win this.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:04 PM
Jun 2020

Be of good cheer and have faith. It we all work to get out the vote and vote, we will win this.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
51. That is why I wrote this OP...I was screaming!!!!
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:53 PM
Jun 2020

I am tired of this sort of thing...there was an OP not long ago that was titled 'Fuck the Polls".

agingdem

(7,805 posts)
22. the poll numbers are right so
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:12 PM
Jun 2020

stop the fretting, the pearl clutching, the gloom and doom scenarios...Biden is doing great...and please no more "why isn't Biden out there hammering Trump"... not sure who said this but I'll paraphrase "you don't kill someone when they're committing suicide"... and Trump is rotting and he's taking the rancid GOP with him...so relax...Biden's got this

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
52. Thank you...exactly. Of course we need to do our part...but it is looking good. And Biden is
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:56 PM
Jun 2020

doing a good job and is driving Trump crazy...Trump said Biden would be the next president on Hannity the other night (saw it online). How does Trump think Biden wins but some here are wringing their hands?

agingdem

(7,805 posts)
71. I think a lot of the hand wringers
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:10 PM
Jun 2020

are buying into trump's gaslighting garbage...never said it, never happened, fake news blah blah...when FUX news has trump's poll numbers swirling the toilet then it's time to believe it...but not get complacent...

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
85. I work every election...GOTV...data-whatever I can do. But I am really excited this year and that is
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:35 PM
Jun 2020

a good thing. I am telling you this could be a realignment election...Joe Biden may be our Roosevelt and may save this country. We may see more progressive policy than we have in decades. Joe Biden is a progressive and always was. He has good ideas and if we get the Senate, we could truly see some policy we have wanted for decades become law.

agingdem

(7,805 posts)
114. I think once Biden is in the White House
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:42 PM
Jun 2020

We have to go back to when we were part of the global community .. when our air and oceans were cleaner ..when we embraced immigrants ..when we spurned dictators.. we have to realign our courts and on and on .. only then can we move forward and lead

sarisataka

(18,483 posts)
32. 304 - 227
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:23 PM
Jun 2020

That was the result of the final poll, and the only poll that matters.

Some things said in 2016 about chaves of winning, negative data and people urging caution:

- guaranteed
- in the bag
- take it to the bank
- bet the farm
- we could run a ham sandwich
- landslide
- historic margin
- poor poll question
- biased polling
- too small sample
- media wants a horse race
- debbie downer
- trolls try to suppress votes
- doom and gloom

There were many others, but I have seen most of these repeated in 2020

I expect the final poll will be much closer this time, about 287 - 260.

I am not yet confident which person will get the 278, so I intend to keep pushing people to vote. I do not want overconfidence to be a factor.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
57. Yes it is a different year. And we have people out there working on voter suppression Stacy Abrams
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:59 PM
Jun 2020

for one. I think we will win. We had a gerrymandered house and yet we over-performed and took it back. We can do this.

DFW

(54,281 posts)
39. That's not what I'm seeing
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:32 PM
Jun 2020

The posts I see are just reminding us that our seeming advantage at the moment is something we dare not piss away due to over-confidence. Indeed, whatever our advantage, we should press ahead with it AS IF it weren't there. Complacency is our enemy. Enemies are more easily overcome when not ignored. Not doom and gloom, just sound advice from people who have been there, seen that. If Hamilton Jordan were still around, he could speak volumes on the subject. 1976 and 1992 were victories that were closer than they should have been because they seemed so obvious.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
60. Every bit of good news (polls and other stuff too) is met with doom and gloom. I bet there are
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:01 PM
Jun 2020

more than 10 OP's right now addressing the very good polls...doom and gloom doesn't make people work harder...just the opposite.

DFW

(54,281 posts)
111. I guess I read the wrong threads
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:30 PM
Jun 2020

I don't live in this machine, and have a life out there in the real world. Besides, there is the time difference to consider, since we are anywhere from six to nine hours ahead of you people back there in North America. For example, I just can't be bothered to read the 487,634th thread telling me why Alexander Throttlebottom (or whoever it is this hour) just HAS to be Joe Biden's pick for VP. That goes for a lot of other threads as well, obviously.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
61. I believe in self fulfilling prophecies. If you have no hope and enough people have no hope,
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:03 PM
Jun 2020

then you will lose...what about the ones who did win like Clinton and Obama?

MoonlitKnight

(1,584 posts)
49. We have 130 days to go
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:52 PM
Jun 2020

What were the polls 130 days ago?

Also, if you look at the polls they show about 14% of the vote is still fluid.

Yes, the decision gets baked in right about this point of the race.
Normally both candidates get a convention bounce. No idea what happens in a pandemic.

Yes, we are very likely to win and win big. Let’s make sure we finish Trump and Trumpism and enabling Republicans all the way down the ballot. And let’s get those Biden numbers over 55% to lock in his vote.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
66. Now this is a reasonable useful post and I agree completely. And I would remind you that 130 days
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:05 PM
Jun 2020

ago, the primary was still going on. And the pandemic was not a factor or the terrible economy.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
50. It makes Michael Moore happy to see this type of negativity and hopelessness...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:53 PM
Jun 2020

It makes Michael Moore happy to see this type of negativity and hopelessness. Fuck Michael Moore. Rather than trying to get people inspired and motivated, his negativity just sucks the life out of a room and deflates everyone's sails. Fuck Michael Moore! It's almost as though he gets a bigger thrill out of being able to say "told you so" at the failures... rather than being a positive driving force that leads us to victory. Fuck Michael Moore.

PS: Great post! Thanks for the OP!!

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
68. Thank you Nurse Jackie...and your post is perfect and true. The constant 'what about 16 ' does
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:08 PM
Jun 2020

nothing but reduce enthusiasm, and make some think it is hopeless. And there are some here who supported a different candidate who want to be right as well.

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
53. Also, some of us are still twitchy
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:56 PM
Jun 2020

after 2016.

I'm literally afraid to be optimistic.

I look at the Trumpers I know who are still all-fucking-in on him and I feel hopeless.

I also feel stupid for having believed at one time that they were decent human beings.

So, I'm hoping for the best but preparing for the worst possible outcome.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
70. There are not enough 'Trumpers' for the win IMHO. And we have enough misery in our lives without
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:10 PM
Jun 2020

refusing to be hopeful when things look good...they do look good in terms of beating Trump and maybe it will be a historic realignment. It could happen.

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
75. Obviously you don't live in a town
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:19 PM
Jun 2020

filled to the brim with MAGATs. People who I once was able to be friendly with I now avoid, even before COVID, because I can't square their "hi how are you" friendly demeanor with what they have shown themselves to be at their core.

Yes, it looks good. It did in 2016 too.

Agent Orange is a whole lot more desperate now.

I'm hoping for the best while preparing for the worst, because if he wins, that will be devastating for all of us and not just emotionally.

I'm not counting any chickens right now.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
83. I live in Ohio. If you look at the polls that included Stein...not
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:32 PM
Jun 2020

surprising that Trump won the EC...remember he barely won...and he has lost support. We have reason to be hopeful.

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
92. I talk up the hopefulness with every person I meet
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:45 PM
Jun 2020

here, I allow myself to show how I really feel, because it's mostly a semi-friendly crowd, people who I figure should understand the dread that accompanies me every single day.

Yeah, there's reason to be hopeful, but also reason to feel that 'when will the other shoe drop' feeling.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
96. I wish I could make you feel better...living with dread is no way to live. Hubs and I are out of
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:53 PM
Jun 2020

work. We could lose everything we worked for...but still have hope. Good luck!

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
101. We're managing
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:02 PM
Jun 2020

DH is, fortunately, an essential worker. He fixes hospital sterilizers, so he's super cautious.

I've been trapped at home pretty much 24/7 since March, with my 19, 17, and 11 year old sons, two dogs, and a bunch of cats...so my moods are..um, variable.

Some days, I think "we've got this". Others, I feel hopeless.

Deep down, I don't believe that Dumbass Donny can pull it off without blatant in-your-face cheating and that's the part that worries me.

IF he does cheat in a way that is utterly open and obvious...will anything be done? I fear this because, well, there have been few curbs to his behavior overall and Barr is willing to do literally anything in service to that orange creature. Republican governors are similarly supportive of anything he says or does, as well as Republican senators and congresscritters.

He has a lot of powerful enablers with no ethics.

So, ultimately, we'll see. Hopefully, it will go well and we'll get to watch him go to prison.

Thanks for the conversation. I'm tired of talking to boys all the time.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
124. Oh I get it and teens are rough...my son who is now a productive citizen sat up in his room and
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 07:14 PM
Jun 2020

played video games for almost two years...he was mad because we had to move when he was a senior...his Dad's plant was closing. Three boys are a handful I bet! I have three girls and one boy. Love them to death. Do yours talk? Mine mostly texted...hehe.

Bettie

(16,071 posts)
125. They converse occasionally
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 07:27 PM
Jun 2020

but, not for long.

They have been learning woodworking and blacksmithing from their dad this summer, though there is a lot of video gaming too.

The largest one is teaching the smallest to play Saxophone so he's good to go for 6th grade band.

The two big ones will both be in the same college in early August, both in marching band too. Well, if college actually happens, but we're in Iowa, where the population is kind of spread out.

I adore my boys, but sometimes, I really wish I had a girl to do some of the girl things with. Don't know what I'll do with only the small one around. He can't even reach the high shelves!

Ms. Toad

(33,992 posts)
56. So you liked 2016 and want to repeat it. Got it.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:59 PM
Jun 2020

People on DU (and elsewhere) were so cocky about the sure victory in 2016 that it contributed to Trump's election - by people skipping voting if it was inconvenient (because Clinton was a sure thing), but people voting for 3rd party candidates (because Clinton was a sure thing and they wanted to send a message to "President" Clinton), and by some even voting in the Republican primary to ensure that Trump (the nothinburger candidate) would be Clinton's opponent.

And, FWIW, your post telling us to stop with the doom and gloom is exactly what happened in 2016 to those of us who dared suggest that the election was not in the bag.

How you avoid complacency is to stop treating the polls as gospel, and to stop crowing about how big Biden's victory is going to be, and treat this work as if the polls didn't exist.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
73. There are more than 10 posts this morning saying essentially that we are going to lose in one
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:16 PM
Jun 2020

way or the other. and the polls are wrong blah blah..and what they don't understand and you as well...is that it is not 2016. This election is nothing like 2016. Refusing to recognize the good news in the polls is not a way to fight complacency...and your post gives no concrete suggestions to fight complacency. why should refuse to recognize good news and not feel good about it? iI increases enthusiasm and makes you want work harder while post such as yours dampen enthusiasm and lead to unnecessary hand wringing. I know that is not your intention and that you truly believe this is helpful...but I disagree.

 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
58. Agree, plays right into the pukes hand
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:00 PM
Jun 2020

Dems saying it is early, things could change.

The message should be, "Damn right Biden is going to kick his ass! what we should be talking about is what the hell is wrong with almost 40% of the electorate supporting a proven liar, loser, incompetent buffoon!"

FFS, we need to learn how to act like they would. tRump needs to be a laughingstock.

uponit7771

(90,301 posts)
84. Each one of them missed the MOE swing to the negative by 3%, that's horrible. Clinton LOST each swin
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:32 PM
Jun 2020

... swing state by around 1%

No other polling at any time in swing states had been that off IE Mueller's explanation of Russian backed Stein and Johnson

Music Man

(1,184 posts)
65. Yes. While complacency is not good, 2020 is indeed not 2016 at all, and the data show that.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:04 PM
Jun 2020

I'm also reminded of a sentiment from watching football games with my dad. If our team is leading in the final minutes, and I'm afraid the lead isn't big enough and we're about to blow it, my dad will often say, "I think I'd rather be leading right now."

If the shoe were on the other foot and national polls showed Biden losing to Trump 36-50% and losing in all the swing states (and then some), we'd be flipping the fuck out.

I'd rather be Joe Biden right now

Amy-Strange

(854 posts)
67. I'm begging everyone I know to please vote, but...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:05 PM
Jun 2020

-

unfortunately (or fortunately), Washington state went to Hillary in 16, and I doubt it'll go trump this time around.

Even though I know who's going to win in November, I'm still working my ass off telling everyone to vote and why?

We can't take any chances:

!!!trump NEEDS To GO!!!
=========

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
80. Take a look at your post...why is it unfortunate that Washington went to Hillary?
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:28 PM
Jun 2020

Democrats are very enthusiastic.

Amy-Strange

(854 posts)
93. Because...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:51 PM
Jun 2020

-

I'd rather be in a state that needs more work to get trump OUT!!!

Washington is too damn easy, fortunately, but I'm still doing the best job I can.
============

Amy-Strange

(854 posts)
99. Maybe, but all my relatives and everyone else I know...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:58 PM
Jun 2020

-

lives Back East (New England) and those are all going against trump.

And besides, everyone I know hates trump, so who do I call exactly?

I'm not trying to be facetious. I really want to know.
==================

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
102. Pick state, do some research on the state or maybe you used to live there or pick a candidate you
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:02 PM
Jun 2020

like who needs help in a different state...the Democratic campaign will give you a list so you can call to GOTV.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
108. You are welcome...be warned some don't answer and some are rude as they are called to much...lists
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:24 PM
Jun 2020

overlap and all. But I have talked to many wonderful people. And you can do the stuff Biden is doing on the internet too...if you go to his website you will see all sorts of things.

chriscan64

(1,789 posts)
69. Just Vote.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:09 PM
Jun 2020

It does not matter if you believe and take joy in the polls or if you are leery and choose not to. I would bet my last dollar that every single person here wants to physically pull the lever or push the button against Trump.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
81. I agree. Everyone here wants Trump gone. But doom and gloom hurt our efforts to get the vote
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:29 PM
Jun 2020

out IMHO.

Amy-Strange

(854 posts)
109. Good news is good news, but...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:25 PM
Jun 2020

-

some people enjoy being negative.

They love being the bully, and the resulting attention gives them a thrill.

The best way to deal with them is to ignore them, unless they come after you with a gun!!!
=======

ecstatic

(32,652 posts)
110. It's not about the polls, it's about election security, funding for mail-in
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:27 PM
Jun 2020

voting, early voting access, and voter suppression. All of those things need to be addressed prior to the election before we worry about polls.

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
117. Having a clear overwhelming victory will help with that...and Stacy Abrams, Obama., and I believe
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:57 PM
Jun 2020

Bloomberg are involved in this. There is no way we can completely address this but we are working on this. Consider, we took the house by over-performing in gerrymandered districts. And polls do matter.

bucolic_frolic

(43,044 posts)
112. It's sound reasoning but but but
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 02:35 PM
Jun 2020

you have to account for MAGAts. They are conditioned by their leader to lie about everything. So you think they're being honest with the pollsters?

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
120. Some are...and the others are truly worried and tend to be pessimistic and some wanted a different
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 03:05 PM
Jun 2020

Last edited Fri Jun 26, 2020, 06:58 PM - Edit history (1)

candidate.

lettucebe

(2,336 posts)
122. They're all saying "don't think we've won it and you can stay home" -- we all still need to vote
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 05:03 PM
Jun 2020

I think that's the messaging behind "don't believe the polls."

Demsrule86

(68,456 posts)
123. It is still a depressing message and no one will stay home...but some are saying don't believe the
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 06:58 PM
Jun 2020

polls. Why?

edhopper

(33,479 posts)
126. What some of us were saying
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 07:29 PM
Jun 2020

is pay attention to the State polls, the national polls don't mean anything.

And we have definitely offered how to avoid complacency and over confidence.

If we ignore the Russians and voter suppression, we will lose.

bdamomma

(63,799 posts)
127. Everyone
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 07:33 PM
Jun 2020

just breathe, we got this if we all vote. Plus watch out for Russian propaganda on full tilt.

VOX

(22,976 posts)
128. This cuts both ways: if Trump's way down in polling, why vote, if it's in the bag?
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 08:19 PM
Jun 2020

Look, this my belief— polls mean nothing, if I really want Joe to win. I’m pleased by the numbers, but I want to fight as if it’s neck-and-neck. Democrats should never get complacent, especially when there’s something new in the mix— 45’s backed by zealots. Not supporters, but *zealots*, who will obey no law or rule of fair play to keep their “god” in power.

Silent3

(15,147 posts)
130. There's always one faction who think good polls are bad news, and another that thinks...
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 08:27 PM
Jun 2020

...bad polls are bad news.

One camp claims "they" are trying to lull us into complacency.

The other camp claims "they" are trying to discourage us.

And I'm pretty sure there are a bunch of people who belong to both camps, being certain that any kind of poll, good, bad, or indifferent, is part of some kind of plot.

They idea that many polls could actually be, you know, agenda-free information with varying degrees of quality based on polling technique... unheard of!

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