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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThere are doom and gloom posts all over DU imploring us not to believe the polls. JUST STOP!
First of all the polls in 16 were not that far off in the states that gave Trump his victory...WI, MI and PA. And Hillary was ahead in the national polls and did win the popular vote by three million votes. Also, it was too late for polling to capture the damage Comey did at the end of the campaign. Trump eked out a small victory in the MI, WI and PA ...there likely was cheating involved. But every one of those states now has a Democratic government, and the polls in those states were not off by more than a couple of point
This election is not 16. We have a pandemic, an economic debacle and civil unrest. If one looks at history. Trump is not likely to be elected and the polls show he is losing badly. I celebrate those polls and feel the doom and gloom OP's serve no useful purpose.The posters offer no suggestions about how we avoid 'complacency or over confidence' ...some basically say really why bother as the Russians will make sure Trump wins...so inspiring . Thus I will repeat myself...for the love of Goddess PLEASE STOP!
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Last edited Fri Jun 26, 2020, 12:21 PM - Edit history (1)
"Stop panicking Democrats.
You are going to win!"
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)ACA. So now we can run on...vote us in our lose your health insurance. This would affect kids staying on their parents health care as well.
Response to SoonerPride (Reply #1)
Silent3 This message was self-deleted by its author.
malaise
(268,693 posts)I ignore them
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)jayfish
(10,037 posts)It's, very loosely, like setting your alarm clock 10 minutes ahead to trick yourself into thinking you're late for work every day.
Me.
(35,454 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)I've been in such a deep depression since 2016; the only way I can get out of bed in the morning is to persuade myself that there's hope of removing Turd and destroying his RePutin Party.
I have to talk myself off of the ledge every day. Quit telling me to jump.
Me.
(35,454 posts)we need to raise the enthusiasm gap and get out there and vote in record numbers, overwhelm him with votes so there is no question of who needs to be marched out of the WH. I think we should stop all the debbie downer posts. THey do not help anyone but the Menace in the WH.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)LakeArenal
(28,802 posts)Polls dont mean a thing to me.
Too many margin of error polls.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)LakeArenal
(28,802 posts)And by saying all the time shows me its the same people being polled over and over.
Not a representative sample.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)But doom and gloom depresses voter turnout and all these posts offer no advice about what people should other than panicking.
LakeArenal
(28,802 posts)Angry mostly.
Whatever emotion, doesnt mean we dont need to vote.
Im absolutely positive Joe will win.
But only if we vote.
2020 is not 2016.20. Despite medias attempts to have a horse race.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)people voting.
The Magistrate
(95,241 posts)People convinced they will lose are very good at making that conviction come true. Gen. Grant at the Wilderness exploded at his Army of the Potomac staff, telling them he was tired of being told what daring move or other 'Bobby Lee' was going to pull off soon, and that they ought to get to figuring out what they were going to do to 'Bobby Lee' and do it to him. Overconfidence should be guarded against, an enemy should not be underestimated, but a situation should be looked at dispassionately and judged without fear. We are winning, and we are winning because there are a damned sight more of us than them.
coti
(4,612 posts)I don't think he would say that we shouldn't take the threat from Russia very seriously.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)We need to have confidence...
Alex4Martinez
(2,192 posts)Because reliability of polls aside, they're fucking with the legitimacy of elections and this season I fear it will be at historic levels.
So, polls or no polls, even if the polls accurately reflect the intentions of actual voters, we could easily lose if we don't fight at the state and local levels to be sure we aren't fucked, again.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)three states that cost Hillary the EC are now in Democratic hands.
Alex4Martinez
(2,192 posts)The advice is to become engaged locally, is voting electronic where you live? Are the machines reliable? Have there been irregularities in the past and if so will they occur again?
Vigilance at the local level is the best advice I can give. I work with our county elections officer, I would hope that everyone else tries that.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)machines. Even votes by mail here use optical scanners but there is a record which is good...Ohio is where I live.
Johnny2X2X
(18,969 posts)Biden is too far out in front and there is too little time left for Trump to catch him in any legitimate election.
It will take major cheating , way more than in 2016, for Trump to win. The type of cheating where 80% of the country will be sure that he cheated because there is proof everywhere. In other words, only a coup of our Democracy can save Trump now.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)and over...If the blue wall holds the GOP are fucked...and we have Democratic governors this year...and why didn't the bad actors save the house if they could? I think we need too have polls watchers.
coti
(4,612 posts)You, on the other hand, are saying that we shouldn't learn from what happened in 2016. I completely disagree. We need to fully recognize the threat Russia's election attacks pose to our democracy.
LakeArenal
(28,802 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)"I am calling BS on polls showing Biden way ahead"I am not linking it but here is a title...
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)There have been many posts where people explicitly say they don't believe the polls...and worse than that, some claim no matter what we do, we will lose because of the Russians or massive GOP cheating. This sort of thing depresses turnout...it doesn't increase it.
ProfessorGAC
(64,852 posts)One was verbatim. "Don't believe the polls" in the title.
So, to say nobody is saying it is false.
In addition, while I agree with your concerns, there is a refusal to believe, among some, that human nature won't make some people to back a winner if they swing vote. People who diligently vote, but aren't committed to one philosophy, are less likely to decide to vote for someone trailing badly. And, they're more likely to want to feel they're part of the solution and vote for the person who has the lead that makes them appear to be obviously the winner.
I think these big poll leads for Biden are a PR weapon, not something to dismiss.
And, the bigger the lead, the harder it is to cheat.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)People want to be part of a winning campaign.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Polling margin of error is huge these days. Hillary was also way ahead of Trump in polls. Lack of skepticism is a great way to put peoples guard down, and that can be deadly.
Take back from the polls what matters. Trump is trending down - thats useful data. Trump is polling loweER in key states. Good news, but dont trust the spread and keep working like hell in those states because likely voters are not the same as people who actually do show up at the polls and vote.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)How does that help. No useful advice is ever given in these posts.
AnotherMother4Peace
(4,237 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)No answer I see.
AnotherMother4Peace
(4,237 posts)efhmc
(14,723 posts)So logic and reason can't calm that fear until if and when Joe Biden is in the WH.
coti
(4,612 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Now, Trump promised manufacturing jobs in hard hit blue wall states who had not recovered that much from then 2008 recession. And some took a chance making the election too close. Sure the Russians had trolls on Facebook and twitter...maybe even here trying to get people to vote for Trump and it worked...but this is a different year. We didn't have a pandemic, economic collapse, social unrest or an incumbent president in. This election is all about Trump and he is losing...a referendum on Trump.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)I dont care about polls. I live in red state Texas and I SEE the idiots who support Trump, actually WORSHIP Trump, on a daily basis. There are a whole hell of a lot of them!
Fuck every last poll out there. All that matters is who is the certified winner after November 3rd. If we want to win, weve got to vote in record numbers.
LakeArenal
(28,802 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)that it is hopeless which is what some not but some of these OP's
hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)Those to me represent a danger that voters will think Aw, Biden will win anyway, so why should I bother voting.
It was a tactic used in 2016.
Just vote. Period. Ignore the polls. They mean nothing. They are just someones opinion.
Faux pas
(14,644 posts)maybe?
bullwinkle428
(20,628 posts)Okay, fine.
Faux pas
(14,644 posts)was referring to the gloom and doomers, so excuse the hell out of me.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)What actions would do this? And how does being happy about a poll encourage complacency? I vote in every election...all of them. I work every election.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)and some may be trolls...who knows? I have not seen but one OP that I though the person might be a troll.
AnotherMother4Peace
(4,237 posts)as the Russians will make sure Trump wins". Never ever stop being alert and calling out putin/bunker boy/GOP corruption, because they're not stopping. If anything they will just get more devious.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)AnotherMother4Peace
(4,237 posts)what are the DUers saying in "doom and gloom posts all over DU imploring us not to believe the polls." - that they need to "JUST STOP!"
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)complacent...not calling out any DUer but there have been more than ten probably today.
AnotherMother4Peace
(4,237 posts)like prudent advice to me. Ask any athlete or sport enthusiast what happens when one gets "cocky or complacent".
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)This is the problem with going to extremes in various situations and in communication.
In this case, the old adage, hope for the best and prepare for the worst is close to the way to put it.
Is it hard to celebrate and be jubilant about good polling news while also realizing that you have to be part of fulfilling the contract, so to speak, by turning out and doing your part and reinforcing the indications? Can't they both coincide?
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)be pleased and it could make us want to work harder...
Newest Reality
(12,712 posts)Well, I support your OP.
Doom and gloom have no place in this historic battle we face, that's for certain. It sounds like depression and fear my play into that as well and it is understandable that the stress and shock of recent events would induce that.
Here's wishing everyone more intestinal fortitude, solidarity and better focus on the important duty we have to democracy itself.
Maybe the idea of what we may be able to accomplish after we win will also help. The focus on democracy itself is at issue now and we really have to expand and strengthen it in every way so that it does not fail, (perish the thought) and takes us all into the rest of this century with more equality, freedom and prosperity for everyone and for all races which means ALL Americans.
Much work and many changes await and we can do that with the right kind of Executive Branch to lead us into a new cycle of resilience and vision that brings pragmatic results more rapidly than ever before. We can and will do better, if we want.
Eyes on the prize!
betsuni
(25,377 posts)screaming and never stop. Biden will win unless there is major cheating.
coti
(4,612 posts)Now what?
betsuni
(25,377 posts)Sigh, don't know what to do.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Be of good cheer and have faith. It we all work to get out the vote and vote, we will win this.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)I am tired of this sort of thing...there was an OP not long ago that was titled 'Fuck the Polls".
betsuni
(25,377 posts)SERENITY NOW.
agingdem
(7,805 posts)stop the fretting, the pearl clutching, the gloom and doom scenarios...Biden is doing great...and please no more "why isn't Biden out there hammering Trump"... not sure who said this but I'll paraphrase "you don't kill someone when they're committing suicide"... and Trump is rotting and he's taking the rancid GOP with him...so relax...Biden's got this
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)doing a good job and is driving Trump crazy...Trump said Biden would be the next president on Hannity the other night (saw it online). How does Trump think Biden wins but some here are wringing their hands?
agingdem
(7,805 posts)are buying into trump's gaslighting garbage...never said it, never happened, fake news blah blah...when FUX news has trump's poll numbers swirling the toilet then it's time to believe it...but not get complacent...
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)a good thing. I am telling you this could be a realignment election...Joe Biden may be our Roosevelt and may save this country. We may see more progressive policy than we have in decades. Joe Biden is a progressive and always was. He has good ideas and if we get the Senate, we could truly see some policy we have wanted for decades become law.
agingdem
(7,805 posts)We have to go back to when we were part of the global community .. when our air and oceans were cleaner ..when we embraced immigrants ..when we spurned dictators.. we have to realign our courts and on and on .. only then can we move forward and lead
sarisataka
(18,483 posts)That was the result of the final poll, and the only poll that matters.
Some things said in 2016 about chaves of winning, negative data and people urging caution:
- guaranteed
- in the bag
- take it to the bank
- bet the farm
- we could run a ham sandwich
- landslide
- historic margin
- poor poll question
- biased polling
- too small sample
- media wants a horse race
- debbie downer
- trolls try to suppress votes
- doom and gloom
There were many others, but I have seen most of these repeated in 2020
I expect the final poll will be much closer this time, about 287 - 260.
I am not yet confident which person will get the 278, so I intend to keep pushing people to vote. I do not want overconfidence to be a factor.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,422 posts)We win handily in a fair election.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)for one. I think we will win. We had a gerrymandered house and yet we over-performed and took it back. We can do this.
DFW
(54,281 posts)The posts I see are just reminding us that our seeming advantage at the moment is something we dare not piss away due to over-confidence. Indeed, whatever our advantage, we should press ahead with it AS IF it weren't there. Complacency is our enemy. Enemies are more easily overcome when not ignored. Not doom and gloom, just sound advice from people who have been there, seen that. If Hamilton Jordan were still around, he could speak volumes on the subject. 1976 and 1992 were victories that were closer than they should have been because they seemed so obvious.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)more than 10 OP's right now addressing the very good polls...doom and gloom doesn't make people work harder...just the opposite.
DFW
(54,281 posts)I don't live in this machine, and have a life out there in the real world. Besides, there is the time difference to consider, since we are anywhere from six to nine hours ahead of you people back there in North America. For example, I just can't be bothered to read the 487,634th thread telling me why Alexander Throttlebottom (or whoever it is this hour) just HAS to be Joe Biden's pick for VP. That goes for a lot of other threads as well, obviously.
Miguelito Loveless
(4,454 posts)rise to the presidency.
Color me cynical.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)then you will lose...what about the ones who did win like Clinton and Obama?
MoonlitKnight
(1,584 posts)What were the polls 130 days ago?
Also, if you look at the polls they show about 14% of the vote is still fluid.
Yes, the decision gets baked in right about this point of the race.
Normally both candidates get a convention bounce. No idea what happens in a pandemic.
Yes, we are very likely to win and win big. Lets make sure we finish Trump and Trumpism and enabling Republicans all the way down the ballot. And lets get those Biden numbers over 55% to lock in his vote.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)ago, the primary was still going on. And the pandemic was not a factor or the terrible economy.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)It makes Michael Moore happy to see this type of negativity and hopelessness. Fuck Michael Moore. Rather than trying to get people inspired and motivated, his negativity just sucks the life out of a room and deflates everyone's sails. Fuck Michael Moore! It's almost as though he gets a bigger thrill out of being able to say "told you so" at the failures... rather than being a positive driving force that leads us to victory. Fuck Michael Moore.
PS: Great post! Thanks for the OP!!
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)nothing but reduce enthusiasm, and make some think it is hopeless. And there are some here who supported a different candidate who want to be right as well.
Bettie
(16,071 posts)after 2016.
I'm literally afraid to be optimistic.
I look at the Trumpers I know who are still all-fucking-in on him and I feel hopeless.
I also feel stupid for having believed at one time that they were decent human beings.
So, I'm hoping for the best but preparing for the worst possible outcome.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)refusing to be hopeful when things look good...they do look good in terms of beating Trump and maybe it will be a historic realignment. It could happen.
Bettie
(16,071 posts)filled to the brim with MAGATs. People who I once was able to be friendly with I now avoid, even before COVID, because I can't square their "hi how are you" friendly demeanor with what they have shown themselves to be at their core.
Yes, it looks good. It did in 2016 too.
Agent Orange is a whole lot more desperate now.
I'm hoping for the best while preparing for the worst, because if he wins, that will be devastating for all of us and not just emotionally.
I'm not counting any chickens right now.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)surprising that Trump won the EC...remember he barely won...and he has lost support. We have reason to be hopeful.
Bettie
(16,071 posts)here, I allow myself to show how I really feel, because it's mostly a semi-friendly crowd, people who I figure should understand the dread that accompanies me every single day.
Yeah, there's reason to be hopeful, but also reason to feel that 'when will the other shoe drop' feeling.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)work. We could lose everything we worked for...but still have hope. Good luck!
Bettie
(16,071 posts)DH is, fortunately, an essential worker. He fixes hospital sterilizers, so he's super cautious.
I've been trapped at home pretty much 24/7 since March, with my 19, 17, and 11 year old sons, two dogs, and a bunch of cats...so my moods are..um, variable.
Some days, I think "we've got this". Others, I feel hopeless.
Deep down, I don't believe that Dumbass Donny can pull it off without blatant in-your-face cheating and that's the part that worries me.
IF he does cheat in a way that is utterly open and obvious...will anything be done? I fear this because, well, there have been few curbs to his behavior overall and Barr is willing to do literally anything in service to that orange creature. Republican governors are similarly supportive of anything he says or does, as well as Republican senators and congresscritters.
He has a lot of powerful enablers with no ethics.
So, ultimately, we'll see. Hopefully, it will go well and we'll get to watch him go to prison.
Thanks for the conversation. I'm tired of talking to boys all the time.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)played video games for almost two years...he was mad because we had to move when he was a senior...his Dad's plant was closing. Three boys are a handful I bet! I have three girls and one boy. Love them to death. Do yours talk? Mine mostly texted...hehe.
Bettie
(16,071 posts)but, not for long.
They have been learning woodworking and blacksmithing from their dad this summer, though there is a lot of video gaming too.
The largest one is teaching the smallest to play Saxophone so he's good to go for 6th grade band.
The two big ones will both be in the same college in early August, both in marching band too. Well, if college actually happens, but we're in Iowa, where the population is kind of spread out.
I adore my boys, but sometimes, I really wish I had a girl to do some of the girl things with. Don't know what I'll do with only the small one around. He can't even reach the high shelves!
Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)People on DU (and elsewhere) were so cocky about the sure victory in 2016 that it contributed to Trump's election - by people skipping voting if it was inconvenient (because Clinton was a sure thing), but people voting for 3rd party candidates (because Clinton was a sure thing and they wanted to send a message to "President" Clinton), and by some even voting in the Republican primary to ensure that Trump (the nothinburger candidate) would be Clinton's opponent.
And, FWIW, your post telling us to stop with the doom and gloom is exactly what happened in 2016 to those of us who dared suggest that the election was not in the bag.
How you avoid complacency is to stop treating the polls as gospel, and to stop crowing about how big Biden's victory is going to be, and treat this work as if the polls didn't exist.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)way or the other. and the polls are wrong blah blah..and what they don't understand and you as well...is that it is not 2016. This election is nothing like 2016. Refusing to recognize the good news in the polls is not a way to fight complacency...and your post gives no concrete suggestions to fight complacency. why should refuse to recognize good news and not feel good about it? iI increases enthusiasm and makes you want work harder while post such as yours dampen enthusiasm and lead to unnecessary hand wringing. I know that is not your intention and that you truly believe this is helpful...but I disagree.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)Dems saying it is early, things could change.
The message should be, "Damn right Biden is going to kick his ass! what we should be talking about is what the hell is wrong with almost 40% of the electorate supporting a proven liar, loser, incompetent buffoon!"
FFS, we need to learn how to act like they would. tRump needs to be a laughingstock.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)uponit7771
(90,301 posts)... swing state by around 1%
No other polling at any time in swing states had been that off IE Mueller's explanation of Russian backed Stein and Johnson
Music Man
(1,184 posts)I'm also reminded of a sentiment from watching football games with my dad. If our team is leading in the final minutes, and I'm afraid the lead isn't big enough and we're about to blow it, my dad will often say, "I think I'd rather be leading right now."
If the shoe were on the other foot and national polls showed Biden losing to Trump 36-50% and losing in all the swing states (and then some), we'd be flipping the fuck out.
I'd rather be Joe Biden right now
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Amy-Strange
(854 posts)-
unfortunately (or fortunately), Washington state went to Hillary in 16, and I doubt it'll go trump this time around.
Even though I know who's going to win in November, I'm still working my ass off telling everyone to vote and why?
We can't take any chances:
!!!trump NEEDS To GO!!!
=========
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Democrats are very enthusiastic.
Amy-Strange
(854 posts)-
I'd rather be in a state that needs more work to get trump OUT!!!
Washington is too damn easy, fortunately, but I'm still doing the best job I can.
============
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Amy-Strange
(854 posts)-
lives Back East (New England) and those are all going against trump.
And besides, everyone I know hates trump, so who do I call exactly?
I'm not trying to be facetious. I really want to know.
==================
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)like who needs help in a different state...the Democratic campaign will give you a list so you can call to GOTV.
Amy-Strange
(854 posts)-
thank you.
==========
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)overlap and all. But I have talked to many wonderful people. And you can do the stuff Biden is doing on the internet too...if you go to his website you will see all sorts of things.
chriscan64
(1,789 posts)It does not matter if you believe and take joy in the polls or if you are leery and choose not to. I would bet my last dollar that every single person here wants to physically pull the lever or push the button against Trump.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)out IMHO.
Amy-Strange
(854 posts)-
some people enjoy being negative.
They love being the bully, and the resulting attention gives them a thrill.
The best way to deal with them is to ignore them, unless they come after you with a gun!!!
=======
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)ecstatic
(32,652 posts)voting, early voting access, and voter suppression. All of those things need to be addressed prior to the election before we worry about polls.
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Bloomberg are involved in this. There is no way we can completely address this but we are working on this. Consider, we took the house by over-performing in gerrymandered districts. And polls do matter.
bucolic_frolic
(43,044 posts)you have to account for MAGAts. They are conditioned by their leader to lie about everything. So you think they're being honest with the pollsters?
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)linda52
(26 posts)Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)Last edited Fri Jun 26, 2020, 06:58 PM - Edit history (1)
candidate.
lettucebe
(2,336 posts)I think that's the messaging behind "don't believe the polls."
Demsrule86
(68,456 posts)polls. Why?
edhopper
(33,479 posts)is pay attention to the State polls, the national polls don't mean anything.
And we have definitely offered how to avoid complacency and over confidence.
If we ignore the Russians and voter suppression, we will lose.
bdamomma
(63,799 posts)just breathe, we got this if we all vote. Plus watch out for Russian propaganda on full tilt.
VOX
(22,976 posts)Look, this my belief polls mean nothing, if I really want Joe to win. Im pleased by the numbers, but I want to fight as if its neck-and-neck. Democrats should never get complacent, especially when theres something new in the mix 45s backed by zealots. Not supporters, but *zealots*, who will obey no law or rule of fair play to keep their god in power.
Silent3
(15,147 posts)...bad polls are bad news.
One camp claims "they" are trying to lull us into complacency.
The other camp claims "they" are trying to discourage us.
And I'm pretty sure there are a bunch of people who belong to both camps, being certain that any kind of poll, good, bad, or indifferent, is part of some kind of plot.
They idea that many polls could actually be, you know, agenda-free information with varying degrees of quality based on polling technique... unheard of!