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Tue Jun 23, 2020, 10:57 AM

Here's my prediction of how November and beyond might end up playing out.

November 3rd is Election Day. Due to lingering (or perhaps full on) coronavirus effects, many states will see massive vote-by-mail numbers.

Even before midnight on November 3rd, all exit polls and early returns are pointing towards a massive Biden landslide and clear loss for Trump. Joe Biden will take the stage and address his supporters and the nation as the presumptive President-Elect.

However, because there will be far more mail-in ballots than usual, Trump will refuse to concede that night. He will insist he will stay in until "the very last vote is counted."

That will probably take up to two weeks. During those two weeks, Trump will begin raising questions about the fairness of the vote. He'll start throwing out all sorts of baseless claims of voter fraud and conspiracy theories. The more time goes on, the more unhinged he'll become.

During this time, there will be no attempt whatsoever to facilitate any sort of transition period between the administrations, so our entire government will remain in limbo.

Finally, the vote tallies are done and they are certified and ready to be sent to the Electoral College. At this point, Trump will file a lawsuit in desperation hoping to enjoin the Electoral College from finalizing the vote.

I predict he will not have much success at all in the courts. It will rapidly move all the way up to the Supreme Court, who will refuse to entertain the case, effectively confirming the will of the people and various states in electing Biden.

Now, that is as far as I am confident in predicting. What comes after that I'm far less certain of.

Here is the "best" case scenario: Trump, feeling angry, bitter and defeated, chooses to resign sometime in December. Mike Pence is sworn in as the nation's 46th President. Trump will have demanded that he be given a Nixon-like blanket pardon, and Pence, being the spineless lapdog that he is, will oblige. Pence will, however, facilitate a half-assed, hurried transition period, and on January 20, 2021, Joe Biden is sworn in as the nation's 47th President. (The next day, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg will announce a very well-earned retirement.)

As for the "worst" case scenario...well, I'd rather not go there quite yet. All I say is that it would probably look a lot like Ukraine in 2014.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 10:59 AM

1. Seems Reasonable, Sir

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:04 AM

2. do we want to transition with these people?

biden needs people working now to line up appointees and formulate policy with the clear understanding that everything now in place is totally wrong and must be rethought and renegotiated.

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Response to rampartc (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:06 AM

4. It would be full of crap. Biden will need to pick up the pieces and move forward.

Fortunately, he's been there before. He knows how government should work.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:04 AM

3. Yep, quite probable! n/t

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:24 AM

5. Mail in ballots are counted as soon as received

In Oregon anyway. The running totals are a closely guarded secret. All they have to do on Election Day is empty the official drop boxes at 8:00 pm and count the last minute votes. Postmarks don’t count, you must make sure to mail it in early enough to be delivered no later than Election Day. Or use one of the official drop boxes.

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Response to central scrutinizer (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:27 AM

7. Oregon has the advantage of having done this for a long while.

I worry other states might not have everything down to such an exact science. I know Maryland in their primaries took 2 weeks to announce final results.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:34 AM

10. I've always had a problem with the rush to call races

But Americans want everything NOW, accuracy be damned. The networks are all racing each other to be first to declare the winner. And I’m sure it will be no different this year.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:25 AM

6. Different perspective here. If, trump doing poorly before the Election, and 'serious crimes', [in

addition to his multitudes of 'misdemeanors'], on the level on treason are exposed, [ shaking the vote foundations, where republicons fear imprisonment and are competing to flip] , . . . , then - anything can happen!

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:29 AM

8. Very plausible scenario. Thanks for posting. n/t

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:33 AM

9. +1

I honestly don't think we need a transition this time. There will be nothing the Orange One or his lackeys can relay to Biden that will be of any use.

Other than that, I can see many of those things you mentioned happening.

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Response to llmart (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:41 AM

11. I Wouldn't Believe Anything Trump's Admin Would Say Or Turn Over In Such A Transition Anyway....nt

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 11:49 AM

12. Biden needs to assemble his cabinet right now.

He knows the WH and its workings better than anyone else. I think he will pull off the transition just fine.

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Response to MoonRiver (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:30 PM

16. "I think he will pull off the transition just fine."

Yup. No doubt. He’s been around Washington a bloody long time and knows how and which levers to pull and buttons to push.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden’s team already has all their Candidates for the various Cabinet Positions already sorted.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:11 PM

13. Whenever we talk about what Trump might do...

Whenever we talk about what Trump might do, we need to keep in mind who his mentor, patron, advisor, confidant, handler, boss, and puppetmaster are. When you think, "What will Trump do?" replace that thought with "What would Putin do?" Arresting prominent Democrats would not surprise me. Plutonium on Biden's doorknobs would not surprise me at all.

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Response to hvn_nbr_2 (Reply #13)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:27 PM

15. Who will do the arresting?

The short answer is “Nobody”

The Office of the President does not come with a secret police. He can not order someone be arrested without Due Process, and even then, who is he going to say those words to?

I’ve often thought that it would be delicious to hear Biden’s first words after “So Help Me God” come out as “Arrest that man”, but it just can not happen.

There are no “Palace Guards”, so to speak. He can not command Anyone in the Military to do so, because that would be an unlawful order.

All this speculation is amusing, to say the least. While the possibility (or likelihood, if you prefer) of Trumpy throwing his teddy out of the pram when he loses and refusing to bugger off is certainly a concern, It will be to no avail.

Once the Electoral College vote is certified by Congress, the rest is academic.

I do so hope to see him carried out by the elbows to the corner of Pennsylvania Avenue and Jackson Place NW and dropped unceremoniously.

That would be absolutely amazing video.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:14 PM

14. Sounds about right.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:34 PM

17. We are faced with many horrifying possibilities, those two among them, because

the gop is corrupt, cowardly, derelict, sociopathic as a group, and fundamentally undemocratic. And have been for a long time. The country and the world would not be in this position but for their complicity. They are enablers and recognize what they have to do to retain power and it does not involve a fair election process, or an objective DOJ, or a functional senate the way we used to think of them. Oversight is gone, meaning a corrupt incompetent sociopathic president does whatever he wants.

Trust this election? Given no low bar, given the interests of oligarchs all over the world, given 40 years of gop wet dreams, given the enormous power the WH/senate/DOJ wield together...I'm not sure there will be one and if there is it will be such a shit show of false flags, projection, confusion, lawsuits, threats, misinformation and suppression that most people will have no idea what is going on. Like a covid task force meeting on steroids where no one really knows how many people voted, how they voted, and who they voted for. This is a fundamental tool of the gop...misinformation and confusion. Kristol (who has a lot of bad karma to make up for):

You look at the polls and think "he can't win." But Trump's path to victory doesn't depend on persuading Americans. It depends on voter suppression, mass disinformation, foreign interference, and unabashed use of executive branch power to shape events, and perceptions, this fall.


So what are dems, pundits, journalists, and sane goprs doing about it? What can they do about it? Is there a reasonable path and hope that this won't end really, really badly? Lincoln Project is great and dems should have been doing that for years but if voters are their targets then is Kristol correct in saying the gop has a plan that doesn't involve voters?

Back to the GOP: will enough of them step up for democracy, sanity, history, the 99.9%, and principles? Or will just one or two? Seems to be in their hands, IMHO. We need to go en mass to the polls and vote like everything depends on it but I think we need a bit more than that too.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Original post)

Tue Jun 23, 2020, 01:57 PM

18. Your narrative looks very reasonable... God help us if it is at all close on November 4

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