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donkeypoofed

(2,187 posts)
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:34 PM Jun 2020

If no Covid spike in protest cities soon, then Covid is over

I did notice that a large number of protesters were indeed wearing masks (good!), but also a large number who weren't. If there are no spikes in cases over the next couple of weeks, can we call Covid almost over?!

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If no Covid spike in protest cities soon, then Covid is over (Original Post) donkeypoofed Jun 2020 OP
2 week lag. Right now we're just beginning to register the rise from Memorial Day nt Xipe Totec Jun 2020 #1
if no spike by Tday then I will venture out samnsara Jun 2020 #2
Tday? Demovictory9 Jun 2020 #13
I believe that's thanksgiving MissB Jun 2020 #39
??? Florida has the highest number of cases since the middle of April. judesedit Jun 2020 #3
Oh yeah it's over. Oh wait..Florida today has the most new cases since April. bullimiami Jun 2020 #4
Don't jinx it! dawg day Jun 2020 #5
uh, no RussBLib Jun 2020 #6
It's Spiking Right Now All Over The Place. jayfish Jun 2020 #7
Dig in a bit. Igel Jun 2020 #26
The hospitalizations aren't though, there's no fudging the increase in them week over week. CNBC ... uponit7771 Jun 2020 #30
Totally agree. Hospitalizations are increasing. Blue_true Jun 2020 #32
*We'll have to live with this for a long time. elleng Jun 2020 #8
Florida has been reporting increasing hospitalizations. Blue_true Jun 2020 #33
No way in hell is COVID19 over. nt sheshe2 Jun 2020 #9
NO hlthe2b Jun 2020 #10
The spikes will likely show up in the cities people came in from Lucinda Jun 2020 #11
There's probably a 2 to 3 week delay before we know how many cry baby Jun 2020 #12
No words. demmiblue Jun 2020 #14
I admit, I'll be shocked if our medical system isn't totally overburdened in southern Mike 03 Jun 2020 #15
No... Newest Reality Jun 2020 #16
And who even recs this... oh wait. n/t demmiblue Jun 2020 #17
LOL Mike 03 Jun 2020 #19
Viruses have a funny way of not giving a damn... Moostache Jun 2020 #18
Sometimes in life people have the misfortune of coming upon things that just Blue_true Jun 2020 #35
Huh? SouthernCal_Dem Jun 2020 #20
Sure, but that's not what's going to happen lettucebe Jun 2020 #21
A study has just been published that stated that masks and social distancing Blue_true Jun 2020 #36
Why would you think it's over when we have thousands new cases each day? LisaL Jun 2020 #22
Some people are emotionally worn out and are into wishful thinking. Blue_true Jun 2020 #38
"We" can't, but 'you' can. stillcool Jun 2020 #23
108 thousand gone struggle4progress Jun 2020 #24
You can call it done. Just don't come near me. Stinky The Clown Jun 2020 #25
The stupid - it burns! Blecht Jun 2020 #27
Ohio has an increase as do other states...not over. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #28
And at least one person with covid attended the protest. LisaL Jun 2020 #29
That is so irresponsible. Demsrule86 Jun 2020 #42
The virus is spiking in Florida right now as a result of re-opening. nt Blue_true Jun 2020 #31
Yes!!! Do you know why? PCIntern Jun 2020 #34
People are still becoming infected. It's not over. lindysalsagal Jun 2020 #37
It's not over. cwydro Jun 2020 #40
I admire the optimism BannonsLiver Jun 2020 #41
Right now is reopening/ Memorial Day spike JCMach1 Jun 2020 #43

dawg day

(7,947 posts)
5. Don't jinx it!
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:39 PM
Jun 2020

We're still getting 21K new cases a day. The death rate is a bit lower (very likely due to medical personnel figuring out the better ways to treat it), but the infection rate hasn't slowed down with the warmer weather.

It's not getting worse, but at this rate, we'll have 2 million sometime next week.

RussBLib

(8,985 posts)
6. uh, no
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:40 PM
Jun 2020

This virus is likely to come back each year in some form as the flu does. It's not "over" till we get a vaccine or some good therapeutics.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
26. Dig in a bit.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 06:14 PM
Jun 2020

Take the WI Forbes link. (Picked because ... dunno why.)

Deaths and new positives peaked the same day. Since there's a 2-week lag between "positive" and "deceased" the two can't be related. Both were after a several-day-long dip because of a 3-day weekend, though.

Plus the spikes are just that--very short-term upticks. That kind of fluctuation happens all the time in fairly random data, esp. with small numbers. The peak reported death # is 18. Average is probably around 8 for WI. Most of the panic simply due to noise.

Remember, the #s you see reported today are just the test results or deaths reported today, not the test results or deaths that occurred today.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
30. The hospitalizations aren't though, there's no fudging the increase in them week over week. CNBC ...
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:35 PM
Jun 2020

... shows them in the morning and its clear, infections week over week are going up.

End of June should be telling

elleng

(130,156 posts)
8. *We'll have to live with this for a long time.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:40 PM
Jun 2020

'Summer is almost here, states are reopening and new coronavirus cases are declining or, at least, holding steady in many parts of the United States. At least 100 scientific teams around the world are racing to develop a vaccine.

That’s about it for the good news.

The virus has shown no sign of going away: We will be in this pandemic era for the long haul, likely a year or more. The masks, the social distancing, the fretful hand-washing, the aching withdrawal from friends and family — those steps are still the best hope of staying well, and will be for some time to come.

“This virus just may become another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away,” Dr. Mike Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, warned last month. Some scientists think that the longer we live with the virus, the milder its effects will become, but that remains to be seen.

Predictions that millions of doses of a vaccine may be available by the end of this year may be too rosy. No vaccine has ever been created that fast.

The disease would be less frightening if there were a treatment that could cure it or, at least, prevent severe illness. But there is not. Remdesivir, the eagerly awaited antiviral drug? “Modest” benefit is the highest mark experts give it.

Which brings us back to masks and social distancing, which have come to feel quite antisocial. If only we could go back to life the way it used to be.

We cannot. Not yet.'>>>

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-facts-history.html?

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
33. Florida has been reporting increasing hospitalizations.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:44 PM
Jun 2020

Yesterday, it reported the highest number of new infections since sometime in April.

The "going away with summer" claim is bullshit. There are fewer places hotter than Florida has been for the last month.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
11. The spikes will likely show up in the cities people came in from
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:42 PM
Jun 2020

many seemed to be from surrounding areas

cry baby

(6,682 posts)
12. There's probably a 2 to 3 week delay before we know how many
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:42 PM
Jun 2020

have gotten sick enough to be tested or go to the hospital.

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
15. I admit, I'll be shocked if our medical system isn't totally overburdened in southern
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:43 PM
Jun 2020

and some other states by the end of June. But I can tell you here in AZ we are seeing our highest new case numbers since this thing began. In March and April we averaged 150 to 250 new cases a day and we are now up around a thousand new cases a day. 1127 yesterday and nine hundred something today, and higher death totals. It has moved gradually upwards through May. Now AZ is just one state, but I've noticed Florida totals are high and peripatetic.

This prediction isn't based solely on the protests but the Memorial Day opening debacle and some states moving to Stage 2 of the reopening despite climbing case numbers.

Newest Reality

(12,712 posts)
16. No...
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:44 PM
Jun 2020

I don't see that. Covid is my no means over. Wishful thinking might induce that idea though.

We have, (thanks to leadership blunders, premature actions, reckless behaviors, etc.) a potentially worse, second wave waiting in Fall and, possibly smaller ones after that. Then it may "peter out".

The current wave is more likely to be exacerbated by ideas of it being over. We will see some big spikes soon, IMHO, that could send us back to square one for not staying consistent and preserving.

Moostache

(9,895 posts)
18. Viruses have a funny way of not giving a damn...
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:46 PM
Jun 2020

They do not care about anything because, technically, they are not alive in the first place. They are genetic material with a singular mission - find some cellular mechanisms to hijack and begin making copies of itself.

The virus is being spread right now. The question is to how many people who may never even develop symptoms and how many people who will and how many people THEY will infect as a result.

There is no vaccine.
There is no cure.
There are precious few effective treatments.

There ARE advances in caring for people and in preventing hospital transmission to staff - though that is still as hazardous a job as you can find today...

Remember the equations...TIME x PROXIMITY = Escalating Chance of INFECTION

If you are outdoors, physically separated by at least 3-6 feet and not coughing or sneezing onto, then your risks are fairly low, though NOT zero.

If you are indoors, packed together elbow to elbow and breathing in the same air for hours on end - like at a ballgame or concert or restaurant or bar or even airplanes (though some believe the air exchange in airplane cabins is effective at some mitigation) - then your odds go up for contraction.

COVID-19 is definitely not over though...not even close really...

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
35. Sometimes in life people have the misfortune of coming upon things that just
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:49 PM
Jun 2020

don't give a shit, deadly vipers, cyanide, lightening, deadly viruses.

lettucebe

(2,336 posts)
21. Sure, but that's not what's going to happen
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 05:45 PM
Jun 2020

I'm more interested to see how many who were attending protests and wearing masks, did end up with virus (or didn't). It'd seriously help us to know if the masks are helpful.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
36. A study has just been published that stated that masks and social distancing
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:55 PM
Jun 2020

made a difference in infection rates.

An earlier study on the 1918 Virus showed that wearing the shitty mask of that time reduced infection rates by 25%.

Our best hope is the virus ticks down on lethality and not go up like it did for a while in 1918.

LisaL

(44,962 posts)
22. Why would you think it's over when we have thousands new cases each day?
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 05:49 PM
Jun 2020

Around 20k each day, and that's without any spikes from protests. I guess math is not your strong suit.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
38. Some people are emotionally worn out and are into wishful thinking.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:59 PM
Jun 2020

I went to help one of my brothers today and had to remind him to wear a mask. He has been good about wearing masks in public and when around me (we live in seperate places, so should treat eachother as strangers relative to SARS-COV-2.

stillcool

(32,626 posts)
23. "We" can't, but 'you' can.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 06:09 PM
Jun 2020

I know there are still cases being reported in my county. Still deaths. So I can't call anything almost over.

Blecht

(3,803 posts)
27. The stupid - it burns!
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 06:18 PM
Jun 2020

Science can help us figure when this is "over", not a two-sentence message board post.

LisaL

(44,962 posts)
29. And at least one person with covid attended the protest.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:22 PM
Jun 2020

Realistically it was likely a lot more than just one.
So it's about five days later-new cases will likely start popping up soon.
"Columbus Health says the individual was symptomatic on May 27 but still attended the protests."
https://www.nbc4i.com/news/protester-who-took-part-in-downtown-columbus-demonstrations-tests-positive-for-covid-19/

Demsrule86

(68,352 posts)
42. That is so irresponsible.
Thu Jun 4, 2020, 02:14 PM
Jun 2020

I think we will have a spike...hope I am wrong...they were outdoors but really close together...sigh.

PCIntern

(25,347 posts)
34. Yes!!! Do you know why?
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 07:47 PM
Jun 2020

Because all the viruses were reading the newspapers and magazines and watching CNN and MS NBC. And they heard the president say that it was over. So they pack their suitcases and left for a different planet.

Disease is like economic difficulty: if your neighbor is laid off it’s a recession if you’re laid off it’s a Depression. If no one you know is sick and there’s a virus if people you know are sick and it’s a problem if you or your family members are sick that is a serious concern. And I don’t mean a concern like the senator from Maine gets a concern. When this thing comes roaring back and it is in the process of doing so, all of a sudden it’s going to be a big problem. And people will throw up their Hands and say we’re doomed we may as well just let everybody die who’s going to die and such is life. Until of course it hurts their family, in which case it’s a catastrophe.

This asshole in the White House has led to a period of unbridled narcissism. I’m going to be obscure and make a Pun of a book title which was a science fiction classic and titled The World of Null-A by A. E. Van Vogt: this is the world of null-A: No Altruism. Sub-Species which do not possess the trait of altruistic behavior tend to become extinct before the others in their Species.

 

cwydro

(51,308 posts)
40. It's not over.
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 08:07 PM
Jun 2020

It seems many people on the right believe that, and now I keep seeing it here.

Cases are spiking in my hometown (not where I live). And that was before the protests. No one should feel complacent about this virus.

I live in a red area, and I've actually noticed mask wearing is increasing. People know this isn't gone.

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