I'm thinking Biden will have to win by 10 million votes

[bluestarone]

And maybe 15 million? What do you think?

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Nah.

[jimfields33]

2. I think 5 million is that number I heard.

[bluestarone]

4. Maybe closer but Hillary won by 4 million i believe

I just want it to be fail-proof lol.

[jimfields33]

7. I totally get that. Hillary was 2 million I believe.

[tblue37]

18. Just under 3 million, actually. nt

[bluestarone]

22. TY so maybe 6 million will do it!

We gotta get them electoral votes!!

[ProfessorGAC]

11. 5 to 6 Million

Seems to be the number, based on a few pieces I've seen.
Provided, of course, that 10-15% of that is from states that were close in 2016, like WI, OH, PA.
Two big states get flipped and domination in the expected blue states & it's an electoral blow out.

[Blue_true]

28. 4 million likely gives Biden a victory. But 5 million would be nice. nt

[J_William_Ryan]

3. As long as he gets the 270 votes that matter.

[bluestarone]

6. yea that even worries me!

[mwooldri]

5. Total number in the popular vote nationwide means diddly squat.

Just ask Al Gore or Hillary Clinton.

Electoral college is where it's at.

[bluestarone]

8. yep

[PoliticAverse]

9. He has to get 270 electoral college votes(*)

(* Or win in the House of Representatives in case no one gets 270).

[Under The Radar]

10. Need to vote as if he needs 200 million

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. 2 points is the inflection point.

[Midnight Writer]

13. He needs to win by at least 7%. That is in votes cast, not votes counted.

[abqtommy]

15. And here I've always thought that it was the votes that were counted that are important. Or maybe

that's what you're saying. But I'm uneasy about who counts the votes and how...

[tblue37]

20. He's assuming at least some cast for Biden won't get counted, so Biden needs a well padded

buffer of votes.

[beachbumbob]

14. I hope 20 million margin and 400 electoral votes

along with a net 10+ in the senate, net +40 in the house and alls sorts of state and local democratic victories

[leftieNanner]

16. I like your plan!

[bluestarone]

17. Wow i like your thinking here!

[uponit7771]

19. THIS !!!! Crush em

[Blue_true]

21. I think that you are way wrong.

Hillary's campaign made all types of strategic errors in Florida, IMO, and lost the state by less than 100,000 votes. It will be harder to win Florida this time, but if Biden runs a strategic campaign and has the right VP choice, he takes Florida, IMO.

In Biden has anything over 4 million votes more, he will like win in a rout, like President Obama did in 08 and 12.

[bluestarone]

24. Yea

I do feel better about Florida. Hoping Joe takes it there!

[SWBTATTReg]

23. So out of 66 +63 million votes cast in the last presidential election cycle, Biden, up by a 8% ...

lead over rump, would have 70 million votes and rump (129-70) = 59 million, a margin of 11 million votes.

Assuming that there's not an increase in overall voter numbers and the same percentages vote R vs. D (republican vs. democratic). Of course this is all conjecture. Personally, I think the margins will be greater in favor of Biden. Just a gut feeling, based purely on trump's massive unpopularity numbers.

[bluestarone]

26. If fair and square Biden will kick ass!! But

We ALL know that it will be so crooked that we gotta win with HUGE numbers!!!

[SWBTATTReg]

30. Exactly! Be safe!

[aikoaiko]

25. The popular vote matter so little to me. 270+ EC votes is that matters.

Biden could get 30 million more votes than Trump, but if they are in the wrong distribute we'll have 4 more years of Trump.

[bluestarone]

27. AGREE!

[ProfessorGAC]

29. That Helps GOTV?

Sounds like green party "my vote doesn't count" rhetoric.

[aikoaiko]

31. Well, that's imaginative.

My point is that, talk of popular vote fails to keep the eyes on the prize as well-intentioned as it is.

[ProfessorGAC]

32. The EC Is A Linked Outcome

Given a large enough margin, the EC will follow.
The 2 oddities recently are just that. Very tight popular vote margin, so the EC aberrated.
Get the lead up 3 million (6 Million vote win). The plausible ways of that happening obviate the EC countering the popular vote. (For instance, Biden isn't getting 2 million more votes in CA, NY, & IL gaining no EC seats. The probability of gaining that greater fraction of votes in states easily won in 2016 is a 1 or 2%. So, there's a 1 in 220,000 chance of that outcome.
Far more likely is that extra 3 million votes comes from states that were close & went Obama in '08 & '12.
You pretty cavalierly tossed out that 30 million vote number.
Could you provide any notion of the probability of that actually happening? What scenarios allow a 30 million vote wipeout and an EC loss? What assumptive probability would we assign to such a cosmic event? Or, the likelihoods of each of the series of events?
Your post does, IN FACT, have the ring of "votes don't matter" sirens. It doesn't take imagination to see that.

[beachbumbob]

33. impossible for biden to get 30 million more votes than trump and NOT win the EC vote count

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

34. I have a feeling Trump and the GOP will win in a landslide

The reason for my fear is that he is going to cause a second spike in this virus which will be followed by a more comprehensive shutdown; a lot of people who KNOW the harm this thing can do will stay at home rather than expose themselves or their families while the Trumpian Heaven’s Gate cultists will be queuing up wearing masks with mouth holes cut out so they can give their ruler free reign to do whatever he wants in his second (but possibly not final...) term.