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LuvLoogie

(6,854 posts)
Wed Apr 22, 2020, 11:43 PM Apr 2020

Looking at Worldometer, resolved U.S. cases are at about 132,000...

That is both recovery and deaths.

I checked the graph. The US reached that level of known cases around 28-30 march. That was around 6 to 7 weeks ago. I've seen that severe cases could be about a six week slog either way.

The U.S. currently stands at about 849,000 known cases. About 717,000 of those cases are yet to be resolved.

Of the 132,000 currently resolved cases, 36% are deaths.

Current levels of known are after current peaks of testing--where we are only testing those who show symptoms and need monitoring, care, or hospitalization.

If we take the 717,000 unresolved, we could be at over 175,000 by the second week of June--and that's calculating at 20% mortality.

We'll certainly blow by 65,000 by July, let alone by August.

This perhaps only occurs if current known cases are mostly composed of mid-level symptomatic and above patients.

Talk me down.

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LuvLoogie

(6,854 posts)
4. Yeah, I saw just a couple of days ago
Wed Apr 22, 2020, 11:58 PM
Apr 2020

some official saying 50K by May1. I'm afraid we could be there by this weekend. And we're probably under counting by at least 10% nation wide.

Celerity

(42,640 posts)
12. by Monday night at the latest, maybe sooner at this rate, & Rump is now going to trying even harder
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 07:23 AM
Apr 2020

to utterly suppress testing, plus case and death reporting. He is 100% painted into a corner by his own lies and sheer ineptitude.

The shitstorm is only at the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. The next 194 days (plus the lame duck period until January 20, 2021 if/when Rump loses) is going to be BANANAS.

LuvLoogie

(6,854 posts)
3. You are right, thanks.
Wed Apr 22, 2020, 11:55 PM
Apr 2020

I don't know if that means cases are generally resolving either way more quickly within 3 to 4 weeks. Perhaps my six weeks is including incubation and time before symptoms show.

But do you think that skews my thinking in that we could be around 175,000 by the beginning of the summer? Current cases are baked in. Maybe that is why the trump administration wants to shift control to the states just as the numbers really start kicking in fatally.

Roland99

(53,342 posts)
10. I just wonder if recovered is tracked all that accurately
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 07:16 AM
Apr 2020

Esp if someone tests positive but is never hospitalized

They go home and isolate a few weeks or largely stay asymptomatic and never report their recovery

 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
7. You have to look at the logarithmic scale
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 12:37 AM
Apr 2020

The rate of growth is going down quite a bit, and starting to look more linear than exponential.

Yes, the number of cases and deaths are increasing, but at a decreasing rate.

regnaD kciN

(26,035 posts)
6. I'm VERY skeptical about those figures...
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 12:34 AM
Apr 2020

...specifically, about the "recovered" figure. Because, as they themselves show, and you note, that would imply a 36% fatality rate, which is more than ten times the projected fatality rate of 3.2% of diagnosed cases, and is similarly way out of line with cases elsewhere in the world.

My guess is that the "recovered/discharged" figure really means more the latter than the former -- that it's the number of cases where people have been hospitalized for severe cases and then recovered and were released from hospital care. Which leaves off anyone who was diagnosed with the illness but self-treated at home and recovered without needing hospitalization

It is known that, from diagnosis onward, it takes approximately two to three weeks (not the three to four weeks mentioned above) before a case's outcome is known. Based on that assumption, we can go back and look at CDC figures, assuming that every case diagnosed before three weeks ago (to use the most cautious estimate) has either resulted in death or recovery. If that's the case, then the current number of active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as of 4/23 (which is the latest date for which we currently have CDC data) is 616,482 -- a far cry from the 690,503 listed at Worldometer. And, if you use a case duration of two-and-a-half weeks (midway between the estimated two and three), you get active cases of 512,027. Even if you use the three-week number, and then figure the projected 3.2% fatality rate (which is, once again, probably leading to an overestimate, because the longer into the illness period your are, the better the chance of survival) from there, you get an additional 19,727 deaths, not 175,000. Which is pretty close to being in-line with projections currently coming out of the IHME.

LuvLoogie

(6,854 posts)
8. Yeah. I'm not at all knowledgeable about statistics. The site's percentages and timelines struck me.
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 01:57 AM
Apr 2020

Unless the drop off is steeper in the next week versus the rise of last week, I don't understand how we don't get to 60k and beyond by June. I just wonder whether the way we are testing is taken into account in the official models.

regnaD kciN

(26,035 posts)
9. I tend to agree on the death count...
Thu Apr 23, 2020, 02:23 AM
Apr 2020

I think we're clearly going to get past 60,000, probably by the beginning of May. I'm guessing we'd wind up with 70-75,000 total by August (i.e. at the end of the "first wave" ), if we'd kept to isolation policies that were only gradually relaxed, depending on regional circumstances, throughout the country. Sadly, I'm guessing that the Trump/Republican rush to reopen is going to result in a lot more, and that we'll be seeing a dramatic climb in the rate of new cases by early-mid May, and a corresponding spike in deaths by the end of that month.

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