Coronovirus: Took one month to reach 1,000 deaths. Took two days for the next 1,000 deaths

[iluvtennis]

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This is scary. US has to start testing, testing, testing so we can get accurate assessment on how CV19 is impacting the US. With the test results, we'll be able to isolate those with CV19 from those without and cut down on the spread.

[at140]

1. They did not get sick and die in 2 days.

It took many days of incubation, more days of getting sick and finally dying.
So long as people are not practicing prevention steps seriously, virus will spread.

[iluvtennis]

2. Agree...it was just in reference to the final tally. nt

[DenverJared]

3. The number of cases doubles every week if quarantine is not enforced

The number of deaths are a bit tricky depending upon who the new cases are

If a vast majority of the new cases are elderly and/or sick people, the death curve will outpace the new infections curve

[uppityperson]

4. Deaths are doubling every 3 days in USA

[Jarqui]

5. 81,000 Americans dead from this virus projected by July

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/opinions/us-most-confirmed-cases-sachs/index.html

China is 3-4 times the US in population and they have roughly 3,000 dead from this virus.

So one can extrapolate if the US did as well as China, the US should come in around 1,000 dead. But we're heading way beyond that - even with the advantage of 2 months advance notice and knowledge China never got.

One can bicker about China's numbers but the discrepancy would be 3,000 dead vs 243,000 dead - that's pretty tough to cover up. I'm sure there's some. But China's approach of locking down everyone makes a ton of sense in how they stopped it.

In my opinion, 80,000 of the 81,000 US dead by July is blood on Trump's hands.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. trump + GOP yields 80,000 dead

[clutterbox1830]

7. I actually think that is an underestimate.

I predict over 100k by May from the models I simulated

[Jarqui]

8. You may well be right

I was going off a CNN article projection of a couple of days ago.

The United States should have been a leader in how to handle this.
Instead, it is demonstrating many bad ways of handling it that will cost lives.

[clutterbox1830]

9. I think that base there number from this one study but it is highly optimistic.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Or something similar by this modeled is highly flawed imo.

Watch this person rough estimate. It is so far giving more accurate numbers so far, but not as polished.

I think by april 20ish, we would lose around 100k unless higher quarantine measures are not installed. Also I dont know how accurate to counting would be at that point.

[Jarqui]

10. The problem with them all is the data sources and the testing

Trump is keeping the numbers he's got a secret - no one seems to be managing numbers reliably and putting them out at the Federal level.

And the testing is woefully incomplete and we may well hit the horror they have in Europe ... find out that a significant % of the tests are inaccurate.

It's major guesswork at this point.

But I think there's one common agreement among many: tens of thousands or more Americans are going to die from this and it was avoidable.