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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWell folks, we're in this for the LONG Haul IMO... (Atlantic article)
"The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal"
The coronavirus outbreak may last for a year or two, but some elements of pre-pandemic life will likely be won back in the meantime.
JOE PINSKER
MARCH 26, 2020
(snip)
The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the populationpossibly 60 or 80 percent of peopleis resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the diseases spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there.
There are two realistic paths to achieving this population-level immunity. One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many othersthose who contract the disease and then recoverimmune. Theyre just Teflon at that point, meaning they cant get infected again and they wont pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon statusthough we dont yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunitynormalcy will be restored.
Unfortunately, both of these paths could be a year or two long, but degrees of normalcy will likely be won back in the meantime: Come summer, Americans might get restaurants but no music festivals, offices but no crowded beaches, bars with spaced-out seating. Projecting when each facet of daily life will be restored would be easier if public-health authorities had an omniscient view of who is infected, who has recovered and become immune, and who is still susceptiblethis is the information that would emerge from widespread testing, which the United States is terribly behind on deploying.
Longest term 12-18 months folks
Nothing we have seen in a couple generations... wow, just wow...
Here's the full LINK
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/?fbclid=IwAR0xC_d4O2MMjXpAe8Jmy6anfHILBwjPBCtMlOVnvvQv3wjS27hYzySOwl8
50 Shades Of Blue
(9,920 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)SWBTATTReg
(22,065 posts)you're kidding me. Seriously thought that this would be over with in several months? I think that the best estimates that I've seen is that perhaps it'll abate over the warmer months, move to the southern hemisphere, and then perhaps come roaring back when winter strikes again next December. Hopefully we'll have made some progress on several fronts, e.g., several possible vaccines being tested, other possible vaccines being developed, repurposed drugs (originally developed for other purposes, now used for different things), maybe some more abatement processes in place, e.g., restrict overseas travel between countries or at least have more effective quarantine procedures in place, etc.
FirstLight
(13,355 posts)I miss having a real grown up in charge
Demovictory9
(32,421 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(33,254 posts)FirstLight
(13,355 posts)There's way too many variables IMO