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FirstLight

(13,355 posts)
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 09:42 PM Mar 2020

Well folks, we're in this for the LONG Haul IMO... (Atlantic article)

"The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal"
The coronavirus outbreak may last for a year or two, but some elements of pre-pandemic life will likely be won back in the meantime.

JOE PINSKER
MARCH 26, 2020

(snip)


The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the disease’s spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there.

There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored.

Unfortunately, both of these paths could be a year or two long, but degrees of normalcy will likely be won back in the meantime: Come summer, Americans might get restaurants but no music festivals, offices but no crowded beaches, bars with spaced-out seating. Projecting when each facet of daily life will be restored would be easier if public-health authorities had an omniscient view of who is infected, who has recovered and become immune, and who is still susceptible—this is the information that would emerge from widespread testing, which the United States is terribly behind on deploying.


Longest term 12-18 months folks
Nothing we have seen in a couple generations... wow, just wow...


Here's the full LINK
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/?fbclid=IwAR0xC_d4O2MMjXpAe8Jmy6anfHILBwjPBCtMlOVnvvQv3wjS27hYzySOwl8
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Well folks, we're in this for the LONG Haul IMO... (Atlantic article) (Original Post) FirstLight Mar 2020 OP
Trump and his Republican minions are mass murderers. 50 Shades Of Blue Mar 2020 #1
K&R, without nationwide unfettered testing this will get worse and worse uponit7771 Mar 2020 #2
If anyone thought otherwise (that the CV would go away after 'within' weeks as rump said (idiot)), SWBTATTReg Mar 2020 #3
you are spot on... sadly FirstLight Mar 2020 #5
kick Demovictory9 Mar 2020 #4
Immunity? What about mutations? Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #6
yeah, we already know ppl can get re-infected and do worse... FirstLight Mar 2020 #7

SWBTATTReg

(22,065 posts)
3. If anyone thought otherwise (that the CV would go away after 'within' weeks as rump said (idiot)),
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 10:45 PM
Mar 2020

you're kidding me. Seriously thought that this would be over with in several months? I think that the best estimates that I've seen is that perhaps it'll abate over the warmer months, move to the southern hemisphere, and then perhaps come roaring back when winter strikes again next December. Hopefully we'll have made some progress on several fronts, e.g., several possible vaccines being tested, other possible vaccines being developed, repurposed drugs (originally developed for other purposes, now used for different things), maybe some more abatement processes in place, e.g., restrict overseas travel between countries or at least have more effective quarantine procedures in place, etc.

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