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The_jackalope

(1,660 posts)
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:13 AM Mar 2020

Well, I'm in the grip of dread tonight.

I feel like I just saw the Japanese tsunami 200 meters offshore.

My partner and I are 77 and 69 respectively. She has immune problems, I have asthma and a bum heart. So, we're in isolation. We have enough food and TP for at least a couple of weeks, maybe a couple more if we stretch. We've put strict entry rules in place - mostly for me if I have to go out. I doubt we'll be letting anyone in.

Some of you may know that I've been a long-time doomer. I've been preparing myself psychologically for the end of global industrial civilization for 15 years now. But it still surprised me. I thought it would be climate change that would toll the bell, but I know that major depopulation events are always diseases.

I've been running the numbers and reading epidemiologist reports online tonight, and I'm freaked right the fuck out. This thing is far bigger, way more severe and moving much faster than most people realize, or even could realize. Even than I, with all my practice, could realize. I wouldn't be surprised if, when all is said and done, much will have been said, but we'll all be done.

For example, many of us thought it didn't affect younger people so much. I just saw the demographics of positive cases in China, and 30% of them were 20 to 29 years old. Maybe not symptomatic, but definitely contagious.

My curve plots project over a million cases globally by mid-April, but those are based on diagnosed cases. The word from Harvard and Yale is that for every diagnosed case there are 10 to 50 unknown cases, walking around breathing and touching doorknobs.

To quote Kurtz from Joseph Conrad's "Heart of Darkness", "The horror! The horror!"

Sorry to be a Debbie Downer. I'll make sure to call my aged father in his locked-down retirement home regularly to make up for it.

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Well, I'm in the grip of dread tonight. (Original Post) The_jackalope Mar 2020 OP
I know this does not sound good, but even with your statistics, you are sitting at 85% survival rate LizBeth Mar 2020 #1
I'd be more sanguine if it wasn't for the health issues. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #4
I am sitting at 60 in a very high infection environment, working in a minimum wage job interacting LizBeth Mar 2020 #6
Thank you. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #11
My 81 yr old father falls into these statistics. Odds are in his favor. I will not sell him less. LizBeth Mar 2020 #12
If you drive, be sure to disinfect the steering wheel, key, etc. Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #2
We're pretty much on it. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #3
Help me understand Thunderbeast Mar 2020 #13
Your contaminated hands touch it. Sea Turtle Mar 2020 #18
That's all true canetoad Mar 2020 #5
The new norm will be masks and ghost towns for a while until we know who's sick uponit7771 Mar 2020 #7
Thank you. We need to hear both sides of the fence. KY_EnviroGuy Mar 2020 #8
Try not panic and stay put OhioChick Mar 2020 #9
Good advice. Thanks. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #10
Echoing thanks for the good advice. nt crickets Mar 2020 #24
Please calm yourself down vlyons Mar 2020 #14
you'd be amazed how fast this orange sack will be out of the white house and certainot Mar 2020 #15
This is our extinction level event. RandySF Mar 2020 #16
No. EndlessWire Mar 2020 #21
I don't know if this will help, but I can try. Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #17
about those photos ... Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #22
I don't have a digital camera, but I do have a scanner. Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #33
just in case ... Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #37
Did you catch the part where I said I'm woefully inept Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #39
We're going to do ok ... Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #40
I will come hunting for you when I get to that stage. Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #41
Dang. Now I have to cancel all my flights to concerts and sports events. Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #42
Yep. It sounds like you are definitely stuck in the hermit shack! Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #43
This is wonderful advice to live by renate Mar 2020 #25
If I told you what it took for me to get to this point, Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #36
This happened while I was in the midst of developing/writing my next book on art. CTyankee Mar 2020 #26
I hear you.. ananda Mar 2020 #19
i would say d_r Mar 2020 #30
Here's one thing - the two strains type S and type L Blues Heron Mar 2020 #20
I'm always amazed how much people fear death Nature Man Mar 2020 #23
To be honest, I am less afraid of death than I am of another four years of Trump. smirkymonkey Mar 2020 #27
+1 Dem2theMax Mar 2020 #34
With you on that, smirky. Totally Tunsie Mar 2020 #35
+1 jberryhill Mar 2020 #32
I do not want to shorten someone else's time. Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #38
You and yours GOOD LUCK and +VIBES+! Brainfodder Mar 2020 #28
Mother Nature makes fools of us all. defacto7 Mar 2020 #29
I'm turning 70 this month and I'm hunkered down. Taraman Mar 2020 #31

LizBeth

(9,946 posts)
1. I know this does not sound good, but even with your statistics, you are sitting at 85% survival rate
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:17 AM
Mar 2020

That is not bad. You are isolated. Get a neighbor or anyone you know to do your shopping and leave it on the porch. I am all for helping ANYONE that needs help. Look for it.

The_jackalope

(1,660 posts)
4. I'd be more sanguine if it wasn't for the health issues.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:31 AM
Mar 2020

We have a local supermarket and pharmacy that will deliver though, and we're in a fairly rural area, so it's about as safe as it can get.

LizBeth

(9,946 posts)
6. I am sitting at 60 in a very high infection environment, working in a minimum wage job interacting
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:55 AM
Mar 2020

with massive amount of bodies at work. It is scary. I am telling my bosses take me off the payroll for a month, guarantee my job/hours and lets see where we sit. I hear you. I haven't had an orange in a decade or two. Have eaten four in four days. I guess I gave my son the impression if I got sick I would let me die. He called today and told me it was well worth me going to hospital to get help regardless of cost and age. It is an interesting time. The best to you.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,746 posts)
11. Thank you.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:26 AM
Mar 2020

Every time I bring that up I'm accused of being a heartless bastard wishing death on the other 15%.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,039 posts)
2. If you drive, be sure to disinfect the steering wheel, key, etc.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:17 AM
Mar 2020

Quarantine mail and packages for a suitable time. Assume everything you buy and bring into your home is contaminated and treat it accordingly. Shoes?

The_jackalope

(1,660 posts)
3. We're pretty much on it.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:29 AM
Mar 2020

We disinfect all packages/mail with alcohol and/or steam. No outdoor shoes past the vestibule. We have sterile foot covers for unavoidable guests. All outerwear is bagged and left in the vestibule. Alcohol wipes for the car. Nitrile gloves...

Thunderbeast

(3,383 posts)
13. Help me understand
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:52 AM
Mar 2020

how your steering wheel gets contaminated. I would think a car interior would be among the safer environments in your control.

Sea Turtle

(69 posts)
18. Your contaminated hands touch it.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 05:28 AM
Mar 2020

For the sake of making it easy to understand, dip both of your hands in red paint. The red paint represents bacteria, viruses, and various forms of dirt.

Now, take out your keys, unlock your car, open the door, close it, fasten your seatbelt, start the car, put it in gear, put your hands on the wheel. See all the hand prints with red paint? There you go. That is how bacteria and viruses get around by touch.

canetoad

(17,088 posts)
5. That's all true
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:31 AM
Mar 2020

But realistically, what can you do about it?

Follow best practice as it is reported; wash hands, distance or isolate. Thats all we can practically do.

Look, I'm angry that it has come to this but in the scheme of the universe, we are no more of less important than the victims of the plague or Spanish flu.

It's wasted energy, raging at tRumps cack-handed response to the pandemic.

I personally hope that we can beat it back in Australia, long enough for a vaccine. We're a bit behind the US in infection rates but yesterday the first cases or person-to-person infectionw ere confirmed. Our curve will go sky-high in a week, just as it has in Sth Korea, Italy, most of Europe and the US. We're also entering the cold/flu season.

It really sucks, but there is too much outside our personal control.

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,483 posts)
8. Thank you. We need to hear both sides of the fence.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:05 AM
Mar 2020

I'm 72 and a stoic, rationalist and practical scientist. Perhaps being raised by parents that experienced the Great Depression and WW2 formed my attitudes and habits.

This thing is clearly demonstrating the gross failures of unfettered capitalism and globalism which I've seen as doomed for eventual failure for along time. Our populace has become enamored to it with our worship of wealth, privilege and celebrity rather than humility, humanism and environmentalism.

My wife of 54 years passed last fall and in some ways she's lucky, her being such a free spirit. My son and I are hunkered down as best we can be and stocked up pretty good. I'm far more worried about my daughter across town and her family.

I wish you and your partner well and it sounds as if you're about as prepared as can be - and far better than most. No one can say you are in denial.

Thanks for sharing.......

OhioChick

(23,218 posts)
9. Try not panic and stay put
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:07 AM
Mar 2020

Don't let anyone in...or go out unless absolutely necessary. If you must, other posters gave you wonderful advice about gloves, sanitizers, mask, wiping things down, etc.

I forced my mother into hibernation, as she has health issues as well. She's stocked up on food, necessities and isn't going anywhere, or giving me grief, as she realizes the seriousness of the situation.

Try not to cause undue panic by going over numbers because experts don't even know the true numbers, yet. Try watching some comedies on television, playing cards, crossword puzzles, anything not to think about this 24/7.

vlyons

(10,252 posts)
14. Please calm yourself down
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 05:07 AM
Mar 2020

Worrying about it won't make it any better. You do what you can to practice hygiene and social distancing. Go shopping early in the morning, when the stores are less crowded. Fact is, we're all going to die some day. The only thing we take with us is our mind.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
15. you'd be amazed how fast this orange sack will be out of the white house and
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 05:15 AM
Mar 2020

the country 15 pts left when the left finally stops ignoring RW talk radio

EndlessWire

(6,376 posts)
21. No.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 11:29 AM
Mar 2020

Don't think that way. It's tough, but it's not like that. We are at war, and we are cut off from command. But, we are well trained, and we can think for ourselves. It will not last forever.

Our scientists are working to help us. We will have a vaccine next year. WE WILL. So, until then, we'll hang tough, vote in November, and laugh at Trump. One day, this will be in the rear view mirror. So will Trump.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
17. I don't know if this will help, but I can try.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 05:27 AM
Mar 2020

I used to be the kind of person who thought the only way to find a solution to anything that might happen, was to constantly worry. I thought if I worried my way through a possibility, I would be prepared for whatever came, and I would be able to deal with it.

Mind you, I was worrying about things that I was inventing in my own head. It didn't mean they were actually going to happen. They were just possibilities. And a friend who knows me pretty well kept asking me the same question every time she saw me.

What is this worry getting me?

It didn't get me anything but stressed out. It has taken time, but now I live day to day. I have survived some really rough times in my life. And those times have made me strong enough to realize I can survive anything else that comes my way. There are days when I freak out a bit, but then I force myself back to reality. I realize that stressing myself out isn't doing me any favors.

We are definitely in a very scary place. This is something new to all of us. We are all learning together. But at least we are together.

I have decided that since I'm in the house, and I'm going to be here for some length of time, that I'm going to do things around here that I have put off for ages. I don't have any excuses left. I have to clean out the closets. I have to clean out the dresser drawers. I have to organize the photos. I've been saying that for 10 or 12 years. Well, now I really do have the time to do it.

I can get on the phone and have long conversations with friends and family. That's something I usually don't take the time to do.

All I can do is make the best of a really bad situation. But I can do as much as is humanly possible to keep that bad situation on the outside of my front door.

You can still have joy and happiness and love inside your home. Yes, we have to pay attention to the facts so that we know how to best take care of ourselves. But I repeat, you can still have joy and happiness and love inside your home. Let that be your life. And enjoy it! Who knows? For a lot of us, we may find silver linings. We may spend time with loved ones that we never would have done otherwise. We may be making memories now that we never would have had.

If there's one thing I have learned in life, it is that even in the absolutely worst of times, there is always good, there is always laughter, there is always love.

Hang in there. We are here to keep you company. Stay safe and healthy.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,039 posts)
22. about those photos ...
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:33 PM
Mar 2020

Digitize any photos that you have and send copies to family members. This is the best way to make them flood- and fire-proof. Before digital cameras became good enough, I scanned my mother's old photographs and negatives at 4800 dpi, put them on dvds and handed those out to sister, brothers, nieces and nephews. Now a digital camera on a tripod can make a good copy and the Internet works for distribution.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
33. I don't have a digital camera, but I do have a scanner.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:25 PM
Mar 2020

When I bought it, the scanner was the top of the line. Right after I bought it, my parents started having health issues and I never used it. I was too busy.

I don't know if it will work with Windows 10! I still have an older computer here that has Windows 95 on it. So I could use it just for the scanning. Then I'd have to put everything on a disk or a flash drive to get it over to the other computer. I don't have Wi-Fi. I'm living in the Dark Ages. And I'm woefully inept when it comes to IT.

Thank you so much for the advice. I may be able to find a workaround from everything you suggested. The ultimate goal is exactly what you said, get the photos out to all of the family.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,039 posts)
37. just in case ...
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:43 PM
Mar 2020

If your scanner doesn't work with it, you could boot that w95 box to knoppix and try that:

http://knoppix.net/

http://www.knopper.net/knoppix/index-en.html
What is KNOPPIX®?

KNOPPIX is a bootable Live system on CD, DVD or USB flash drives, consisting of a representative collection of GNU/Linux software, automatic hardware detection, and support for many graphics cards, sound cards, SCSI and USB devices and other peripherals. KNOPPIX can be used as a productive Linux system for the desktop, educational CD, rescue system, or adapted and used as a platform for commercial software product demos. It is not necessary to install anything on a hard disk. Due to on-the-fly decompression, the CD can have up to 2 GB of executable software installed on it (over 9GB on the DVD "Maxi" edition).



http://www.knopper.net/knoppix-mirrors/index-en.html

I have one computer running knoppix (10 versions out of date) from a 16G usb key, connected to my tv just for watching movies -- lets me skip the stupid previews and ads on DVDs.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
39. Did you catch the part where I said I'm woefully inept
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:09 PM
Mar 2020

when it comes to technology? Lol!

But I do have someone here in the village who could walk me through that over the phone.

He would totally understand what you just wrote. Me? It may as well have been in a foreign language. It WAS in a foreign language, at least for me.

Seriously, thank you for that information. Because I really do know someone who would be able to do it for me.
I could put the computer and the scanner out on the porch, and he could come and get them. Once he's done, he can bring them back and leave them on my porch!

Oh, the joys of social distancing! waving from somewhere in California!

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,039 posts)
40. We're going to do ok ...
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 04:37 PM
Mar 2020

I'd bet that you can plug that scanner into either computer, as is, and it will work. Try that before changing what you have (there are enough changes being forced on us right now).

We are going to be sharing help and hurt while socially distancing, as long as we have these global communications systems.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
41. I will come hunting for you when I get to that stage.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 06:30 PM
Mar 2020

I know where you are.

Not quite up to it yet. I'm still running a temperature and I'm really weak. It will probably be a few weeks before I start getting around to it. But we will all still be right here, taking care of each other.

So expect me to come hollering for you at some point!
This will be you.
And this is definitely me.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,039 posts)
42. Dang. Now I have to cancel all my flights to concerts and sports events.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 07:03 PM
Mar 2020

Guess I'm stuck here in the hermit shack for a while.

Back about the turn of the century, I spent all night in a "chat room" talking a kid in Australia through his first ever installation of an operating system. It was the unleashing of a monster -- he spent the next week trying out every version of Linux he could download.

I can't help with Windows. The last time I messed with that, their latest version was 2000.

Socially isolated, except for DU, is my normal condition. I won't need to go to civilization until warm and fair weather returns to Kentucky at the earliest. However, my wife is used to going to town once a week. She may go stir crazy before we run out of supplies. Good thing we have a few terabytes of movies we can watch again.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
43. Yep. It sounds like you are definitely stuck in the hermit shack!
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 07:33 PM
Mar 2020

At least you have a wife, so you have company!

It's just me and the cell phone and the TV here. LOL?

You reminded me of a DU'er who used to post here. I haven't seen him on here in years.

Anyway, he helped me install some hardware on my computer. He was on the East Coast and I'm on the West Coast. I even had him doing remote work for me on my computer. I had no idea my computer could run that fast. He was quite the wiz kid.

And then he fell in love and disappeared from DU.

I'm okay with the windows part. The guy I was telling you about, who lives here in the village, is totally into Linux.
He's tried to convert me, but I'm afraid! I'm an old dog. It's hard to teach me new tricks. Especially when it comes to technology.

I would bet your wife will go nuts in a few weeks. I've been stuck in this house for two weeks and counting and I am going stir-crazy. And I'm very used to being a hermit. It's part of my normal nature.

Funny how the second we are told we can't do something, that's when we want to do it. I will be happy when the weather warms up here enough so that I can go sit outside in the backyard and enjoy the Sun.

My dad's side of the family is from Kentucky. Ever heard of Central City? That's where they come from.

Dem2theMax

(9,595 posts)
36. If I told you what it took for me to get to this point,
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 03:36 PM
Mar 2020

It would probably take you a week to read it.

I won't put you through that! LOL.

But I'm glad that what I wrote struck a chord with you.

I am always learning from everyone on this board. If I can help someone once in a great while, yay!

Take care and stay healthy and safe!

CTyankee

(63,771 posts)
26. This happened while I was in the midst of developing/writing my next book on art.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:58 PM
Mar 2020

the self, within. I have scads of points to research (which is something I love to do). I have a body of knowledge based on my travels, so I am trying to refresh my memories of "being there" and actually seeing the art in person, rather than in books.

This is a boat/ship taking me out to sea. I have done this kind of book before and this book will follow on the heels of that one.

It's a good thing to be doing during this crisis. The Internet is my partner in all this and thank God for it. More research!

ananda

(28,783 posts)
19. I hear you..
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 07:01 AM
Mar 2020

This virus is the direct result of climate change.

It won’t kill everybody but it’s a good harbinger
of the way class warfare and fascism make the
change results worse for everyone especially
when societies are collapsing amid an already
stressed planet and ecosystem..

Blues Heron

(5,898 posts)
20. Here's one thing - the two strains type S and type L
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 07:17 AM
Mar 2020

We haven't heard anything outside of that one study a week or 2 ago. One is milder. Let's hope that's the one that will be prevalent. Wouldn't a more virulent one peak sooner? Didn't they say as much in the study?

Nature Man

(869 posts)
23. I'm always amazed how much people fear death
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 12:36 PM
Mar 2020

and never come to terms with their own mortality.

We're not immortal, we only get so much time, SOOOO much is not up to us.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
27. To be honest, I am less afraid of death than I am of another four years of Trump.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:00 PM
Mar 2020

And I'm not even that old.

Brainfodder

(6,423 posts)
28. You and yours GOOD LUCK and +VIBES+!
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:02 PM
Mar 2020

The real stink is the selfish asshole snowflakes spreading it too quickly, Right Wing "News" still keeping up THE ACT and the rush to the hospitals overwhelming them & ending some lives in the process?

There will be REVENGE having angry people, you know it.... and I aint standing in their way!













Taraman

(371 posts)
31. I'm turning 70 this month and I'm hunkered down.
Sun Mar 15, 2020, 01:29 PM
Mar 2020

When I was in my 20s I took microbiology labs and learned sterile techniques, then worked as a student in a pathology lab for a while. My advice (that I keep telling myself)...

Have good sterilization techniques. Do them every time. But trust the technique and don't fret about it after that.

This bug can't jump distances. Yeah, it can stay intact on surfaces for a little while, so sterilize hands and feet after touching an unknown object.

Trust your procedure and get on with living.

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