The true death rate at this point is 6.3%

[The_jackalope]

You don't count the active cases. There are 68000 recoveries and 4600 deaths. 4600/72600 = 6.3%

This thing is 30 to 50 times more lethal than the flu.

It's self-quarantine time for everyone.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. But we don't know how many cases there really are

because not nearly everyone has been tested; also, some people with mild symptoms (or none) might never have sought medical attention at all so they are not included in any statistics re: total cases. So we really can't tell what the case fatality rate is vs. actual infections.

[uppityperson]

3. Exactly. You can tell death rates of those diagnosed, but not of those who have it

[AlexSFCA]

7. but the same applies to flu

it’s not like everyone gets tested for flu. Mortality rates are assessed the same way for all viruses. It’s all relative not absolute rates. It may not be 6.3% but it is 30x deadlier than flu.

[TwilightZone]

16. Not the same.

There's a difference between not testing all individuals and hardly testing anyone at all. The numbers will become more refined as more information becomes available and more testing is done. For the moment, the situations aren't comparable on a global basis.

For example, in South Korea, where they're doing lots of testing, the rate is 0.77%. That's likely much closer to a real number, certainly much more so than 6%.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-korea

[The_jackalope]

5. If you become identifiably symptomatic

The probability you will die is non-trivial. Close enough?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. That's true of many diseases. What we don't know about this one

is the actual proportion of deaths to infections. It is clearly more dangerous than seasonal flu, but less dangerous than Ebola or rabies if you get those diseases. It will be a long time before we have reliable statistics.

[GulfCoast66]

21. Less deadly than Ebola or Rabies.

Well that’s comforting.

[TwilightZone]

8. Agreed.

[lapfog_1]

23. yes, but we also don't know the number of deaths accurately either

How many old people have died in China or South Korea due to corona virus that were ascribed to "the flu" or something else (pneumonia).

[mr_lebowski]

2. The number we're getting for the flu is the Mortality Rate

Which is inherently different from the Case Fatality Ratio you're calculating with the COVID-19 numbers (and not comparable in the way you're doing there).

I learned this today, so ... just sharing

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

[Jarqui]

4. That also ignores those left with lung damages, etc

And if it overloads the hospitals, there will be a lot of deaths due to that not directly due to this virus

[lapfog_1]

24. and the long term probable outcomes for those people

up to 9% of those that catch this pathogen have lung damage. Many so severe that the next cold or flu they catch will be life threatening.

[TwilightZone]

6. No, it's not.

We don't know how many unknown cases there are (obviously) and until someone comes up with a valid known/unknown ratio, all stated death rates using your formula are simply wrong. We can't just ignore that there are cases that may never be symptomatic and/or won't be tested. There are tons of cases we don't know about and they would all need to be considered for a true mortality rate.

South Korea's mortality rate, for example, with lots of testing is about 0.77%.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-korea

[Turin_C3PO]

19. Dr. Fauci

seems to think the rate will settle at about 1%. That sounds about right to me.

[Blues Heron]

26. I'm going with Fauci on this too.

[obamanut2012]

32. Same n/t

[RockRaven]

10. The denominator is totally unknown. Iran, the US, and many, many other places are totally failing

to test people who should have been tested. We've got no clue how many people have been infected and recovered.

Do not mistake me for someone who thinks this virus is anything other than terrible. But the true mortality rate for all infected persons is not known at this time.

[GulfCoast66]

11. Yeah but it's just people over 50...

And those with high blood pressure, diabetes and such Sad I have to add it.

I am one not afraid to dive into the right wing hell hole site that won’t be named. I hear worse from some of my family.

Those blunder heads are just starting to realize that the people most likely to die of this are them! And are starting to get jittery. Well, except the majority who are still arguing that it is just the flu. A few are upset trump neglected to explain it is just the flu.

If so many others were not going to die I would be all Darwin Award on them. Unfortunately many of us here are also at high risk. Including my wife.

[mountain grammy]

15. My niece posted one today

Says virus caused by Schumer and Pelosi and the media trying to under mine the pres Seriously, under mine!. They’re idiots.

[GulfCoast66]

18. Not idiots. Many of them are highly intelligent. Cultist.

That is the description. They have been fed the same message over and over with no counter message until it has become ingrained in their synapses.

They truly will take deprogramming. Which will not happen.

Once trump is gone they will find another to fill the void.

[Turin_C3PO]

20. You're right about their intelligence.

The two Trumpers I know are my uncle and my grandpa. My grandpa has a PhD and was a professor for years. My uncle is a colonel in the Air Force with a Masters in chemistry. Both are very smart yet they lap up whatever filth Fox News and Rush Limbaugh are spewing that day. It’s mind boggling.

[PJMcK]

12. We were scheduled to go to the Netherlands

Then Trump opened his stupid mouth.

I don't have confidence that American citizens will be allowed back into the country. Accordingly, we're cancelling our trip.

I'm looking at a $4,500 loss if the airlines and hotel are unwilling to make some arrangements. They might and they might not. The truth is, I understand their circumstances all too well. In the end, I'll eat the loss because the alternatives could be far more expensive.

So, we'll hang out at our mountain house in the Catskills and limit our contact with others.

Some country you're running, Trump.

[Marrah_Goodman]

13. We don't have enough data to have a true death rate

Very few people have been tested here. I do agree that people need to start to isolate themselves as much as is possible.

[eleny]

14. Our 5th day staying at home because we can

We shopped and ordered stuff two weeks ago. Deep freeze is full. Spritz or wipe down delivered packages. Big yard so we can sort of take walks around here and do some gardening on warm days.

But I think I'm going to need a day away from all media. It's getting rough. Especially after Trump's "going through the motions" address tonight.

Be well!

[C_U_L8R]

17. It varies a lot depending your age.

60 and up looks very grim

[blitzen]

22. Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, Finland: 1766 cases, 1 death

https://ncov2019.live/data

[Blues Heron]

25. I'm going with Fauci on this - 1%

we've been through this BS on here too many times. The mild cases aren't in your number. Stop trying to scare people.It's bad enough as it is.

[JCMach1]

27. Fauci doesn't know the number either... It's sometimes fatal

And much more so than flu. Act accordingly.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

28. Hmmm. I read recently that 270,000 people in this country were hospitalized with flu.

30,000 died. That's an 11% death rate. O!M!G! Flu kills at least 10 percent of those it infects!

So yeah, if you use those numbers, rather than the very many more who get sick but who are NOT hospitalized, the death rate seems huge. In reality, a huge percentage of those who get it have mild or no symptoms, but they are not being counted in these statistics.

Get a grip.

[CentralMass]

29. Everyone is an expert on this.

[obamanut2012]

31. I was going to edit my post to say this, but well done for beating me to it

Exactly!

[obamanut2012]

30. Nope, not even close

Many people have probably had it already, including in the US, or have a mild "cold" and think that's all it is. Posting this scarebait is REALLY irresponsible of you.