Flattening the Curve A great article on the response to the Corona virus
What my hospital is doing, is managing resources such as hand sanitizers, isolation gowns and masks. Other resources. I was in several areas today because of tasks I had to do, and each unit manages resources slightly differently. On three units, I had to ask the charge nurses for face masks. My unit is switching from disposable gowns back to our old yellow cloth one. Physical therapy will no longer be using the gyms in places, to save on wipes. Many other interventions.
Schools are closing in Seattle, NBA is being put on hold , vacations and business trips are cancelled everywhere, Trump is being a dick and blaming the entire EU.
All this sounds very ominous right? It’s scary, I agree.
This article describes the why of the response (excerpt Trump, he’s just a nasty, ignorant, piece of shit) given we were essentially without leadership at the National level with this outbreak, but science and scientists still rule facts and help with follow though. It’s a good read
The main uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak in the United States now is how big it will get, and how fast. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Nancy Messonnier told reporters on March 9, “many people in the US will at some point, either this year or next, get exposed to this virus.”
According to infectious disease epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch at Harvard, it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will be infected with Covid-19 disease. So far, 80 percent of cases globally have been mild, but if the case fatality rate is around 1 percent (which several experts say it may be), a scenario is possible of tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US alone.
Yet the speed at which the outbreak plays out matters hugely for its consequences. What epidemiologists fear most is the health care system becoming overwhelmed by a sudden explosion of illness that requires more people to be hospitalized than it can handle. In that scenario, more people will die because there won’t be enough hospital beds or ventilators to keep them alive.
A disastrous inundation of hospitals can likely be averted with protective measures we’re now seeing more of — closing schools, canceling mass gatherings, working from home, self-quarantine, avoiding crowds — to keep the virus from spreading fast.
Epidemiologists call this strategy of preventing a huge spike in cases “flattening the curve,” and it looks like this:
Link to tweet
More: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation
