The election is already over in 35 states.

[EveHammond13]

This is a swing state election at the presidential level. (Aren't they all.)

Focus your energy on those states.

Ignore national polls.


Also - read Rick Wilson's book.

[TwilightZone]

1. "Ignore national polls."

This cannot be stressed enough.

[blueinredohio]

3. I always do.

[MANative]

16. This!!!!!! nt

[ooky]

19. I take them with a grain of salt. Kind of like being ahead, but

for sure can't take them to the bank.

Personally I think its going to come down to 7 states unless there is a major surprise somewhere.

[Takket]

22. yes, they are completely meaningless

the only thing that matters in 50.1% in enough states to add up to 270EVs

[doc03]

2. Democrats have to figure out why they can't carry

Ohio anymore. Has any Democrat ever been elected without Ohio? If we get someone that can carry Ohio we will win.

[SCantiGOP]

4. Florida or Texas would also make it nearly impossible for the repubs to win

[doc03]

6. Yep also true I remember in Ohio history it was said "As Ohio goes

so goes the nation."

[SCantiGOP]

15. They had a long run of voting for the POTUS winner

Your "as Ohio goes..." comment reminded me of watching the FDR series on PBS years ago.

When he was re-elected in 1936 he carried 46 of 48 states. You could likely win a bar bet by asking which two states he didn't carry. One was Maine, and the other was..........the Republican stronghold of Vermont.

Until then, Maine had a long history as a swing state that had voted for the winner in enough elections to get the title of "As goes Maine, so goes the nation." A headline after the '36 election read, "As goes Maine, so goes Vermont."

[Amishman]

5. Same reason we're much weaker in western PA

Non-college educated blue collar workers have drifted away from the party. Private sector unions have declined our advantage with those that remain has declined as well. Social issues hurt us with this crowd.

[doc03]

7. That tells me we need a moderate candidate to

win the presidency IMO.

[Whiskeytide]

13. I'm conflicted on this. I'm starting to believe that ...

... we can’t have a “moderate candidate” in this election. No matter who wins the primary, they will be painted by republicans and the MSM as a wild-eyed, slobbering, gun taking, baby killing, income redistributing, anti-capitalist socialist. They are good at messaging. It will stick in a lot of states.

Perhaps we need to worry more about turning our base out by strongly and unabashedly embracing democratic principles instead of battling with them for the middle. They seem to always beat us at that game.

[TwilightZone]

14. No one is going to buy the argument that Mike Bloomberg is an anti-capitalism socialist.

He's probably better qualified to blunt that argument than any other candidate.

[EveHammond13]

20. Amen

[Doremus]

18. That's what they said in '16. Lost by 80k blue collar voters in the rust belt.

We can't fall in that trap again.

Give them a transformational candidate, they'll come out. Status quo forget it.

[TwilightZone]

8. There haven't been any state polls there in months.

The most recent were in October. Biden, Sanders, and Warren had leads on Trump at the time, but no idea if the same would hold true today. Trump's approval there has been hovering around even to slightly underwater, which is higher than ideal if we're to win it. And a bit inexplicable.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

9. If anybody knows, it would be Sherrod Brown

We *can* win without Ohio (Kerry came somewhat close to winning electorally in 2004 without it, although there's still some dispute about the vote-counting in Ohio in 2004), but it definitely makes the electoral math harder. We carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012 with Obama (hell, we even got Indiana, which was a huge a** fluke), but it seems to have regressively gotten redder since then and a lot of Blue Collar Dems apparently went for Trump over manufacturing/jobs that they (somehow) thought that Trump would bring back for them. Some of the midwestern states that (narrowly) helped Trump win in 2016 have gone more Democratic and soured on Trump, so, there is a possibility that Ohio might be winnable this year. I think that it will depend largely who we choose as our Presidential nominee as to who will Ohio this year. Sanders or Biden would probably play well in Ohio. Not sure how the rest of the nominees would fare. I'm not from Ohio, so I can't speak for it, so Ohioans, please feel free to critique my response.

[marked50]

17. I have also read about Ohio's poor performance in voting rights.

I am not from Ohio. Ohio has some bad gerrymandering from 2010 by the Republicans. Solidifying Republican control of Sec of State Office and Legislature. And from that all sort of voting suppression has spawned ( even before 2010). Draconian voter Id's, roll purges, etc. The task to counter is difficult. Remember Ken Blackwell-one of the worst Sec of States.

[doc03]

21. I think the most disastrous thing a Democrat ever done was when

Clinton signed NAFTA. I think he was suckered in to that, from day one the Republicans have been hammering
Democrats on NAFTA even though it passed with mostly Republican votes. I think Obama may have promised to make some reforms
with NAFTA, I don't know if he did. But Trump ran against NAFTA and got rid of it. That was a brilliant strategy
for him. He got rid of NAFTA and came back with the USMCA. I think there was a pension bail out for the miners and other things the Democrats
got through. But guess what he will take the credit for that too. I couldn't believe in the debates the other night when
the Democrats spent several minutes praising the changes made with the USMCA. That was like a campaign ad for Trump.

[Polybius]

10. The same reason why Republicans can't carry Virginia anymore

A lot of people moved, making Ohio more conservative and Virginia more liberal.

[maxsolomon]

11. I left Ohio because it was stultifying and humid.

As did blue-collar manufacturing and resource extraction jobs.

CONSERVATIVE businessmen sent their factories to Communist China for the cheap labor, and the abandoned workers blamed Liberals who couldn't stop it.

Walmart came in and destroyed retail in nearly every small town, transforming small business owners into underpaid wage slaves, who blamed Liberals who couldn't stop it.

Plus Abortions.

[handmade34]

12. YES, yes, yes...

can't be stressed enough!! so who thinks Bernie will win the swing states??