Li Wenliang, 34 year-old whistleblowing doctor, died, after finally testing positive.

[Ghost Dog]

... Li himself was infected when he operated on a patient with glaucoma, who he did not know was carrying the virus. On 10 January he started to feel sick, and his symptoms worsened over the rest of the month.

Hospitalised with fever and breathing problems, as he fought the illness, he also decided to fight the government, going public with details of how he had been silenced in the name of stability...

... His parents have also been reported as having contracted the virus. The health status of his wife and children is not clear.

After several negative tests, on 30 January he was finally confirmed as one of thousands of coronavirus patients, he said on a social media post, along with an emoji of a dog with its eyes rolled back and tongue hanging out, the BBC reported. “Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled. Finally diagnosed.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/li-wenliang-coronavirus-whistleblower-doctor-profile

So only after three weeks of sickness, and several negative tests, and having infected his family, did he finally test positive ony to die shortly afterwards.

This is bad.

[Pachamama]

1. I have believed for weeks now that the Chinese Govt has not only known for a lot longer than they

...say, but also that they know it’s much, much worse and the numbers much higher.

This Doctor Li Wenliang was a brave man... may he Rest In Peace and his family members survive.

[virgogal]

2. It certainly is bad,scares me.

[Blue_true]

8. 2% of hospitalized Coronavirus patients die. 5.5% of hospitalized

flu patients in the USA die, with one strain being particularly hard on people under 25 years of age. People need to worry about stuff that is closer to home.

[Ghost Dog]

10. Apples and oranges, I'm afraid.

If 2% of hospitalised and tested positive have so far died, many more of hospitalised are yet to die. And many more not yet hospitalised and neither tested, positive nor otherwise, will also infect others and die.

Not enough time yet has gone by for statistics to be accurate.

I doubt the 5% flu death rate is accurate, either.

[Blue_true]

12. 5.5% of people that get hospitalized for the flu die.

An average of 110 are dying each day here in the USA. I honestly won't argue over something that is easy enough for you to check (as opposed to just saying that you don't believe it).

[Ghost Dog]

14. Coronavirus outbreak is in it's infancy and ongoing;

Flu statistics are compiled once season is over.

Is everyone hospitalised with flu symptoms in the US actually tested for flu virus? How many with flu virus aren't hospitalised?

[Blue_true]

16. The hospitalization numbers are for this season.

Of the people how tested positive and were hospitalized, 110 per day are dying.

I had someone say that I am comparing apples to oranges, but that person ignores that the gross number of around 18,000 in one month are for people that are hospitalized with the Wuhan virus, the comparable number in the USA would be 30,000+. Something like 13 million Americans have tested positive for the flu, over 3 million per month.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Also, while 110 deaths from flu on average is what it is,

it's not a number that's rising exponentially, as in China, with no end in sight.

[Blue_true]

17. I tried to explain, the China number is NOT exponential.

Please study up on what exponential means, I have no urge to explain anymore.

[Ghost Dog]

19. It is rising at a compound rate

Is that geometric? Not exponential.

[Blue_true]

20. It is a rising straight line that is increasing at less that 2x on the slope.

An exponential is not reached until the exponent power becomes 2 or greater. About 3 days ago China was reporting 14,000+ cases, they are now reporting around 19,000. For the growth to reach low level exponential (power of 2), they would have to report 28,000+ as of today. The growth in cases and the number of deaths are staying steady, that is not exponential.

I really don't know what you mean by geometric. Other than straight line and exponential, there is sinusoidal, which certainly does not apply in this case. For the purposes of defining the graphical appearance of growth in this case, the curve will be either a line or a rising exponential (as opposed to a declining exponential, which is not applicable for this situation), and for this situation, the minimum level for an exponential description has not been reached.

[Control-Z]

3. K&R and bookmarking for roommate to read. eom

[evertonfc]

4. Damn

this virus kills dead- quick. My bet is the numbers are much, much larger than reported. I saw a woman with a mask on her and her dog today on bus. I was surprised on how well the dog tolerated the mask

[Ghost Dog]

7. There's evidence for much larger numbers

in this earlier thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212952858

[Blue_true]

9. It kills 2% of hospitalized patients, the two flu strains now in the USA

kills 5.5% of hospitalized patients, with one strain particularly deadly for people under 25 years old.

[evertonfc]

11. I didn't know that

thanks

[Blue_true]

13. News articles have come out weekly.

The only unique thing is the Wuhan virus is new and scientists don't know where it is headed yet. Seasonal flu, even killer ones, happen every year like clockwork, so there is no "newness" about them, even when 2x-3x more people are dying each day in the USA (with a healthcare system that is far superior to China's).

[Ghost Dog]

18. You do make good points, thanks.

We don't know where this is headed yet.

[meadowlander]

5. Tend to agree based on the response.

You don't lock down cities of 11 million people for a virus that's "a bit worse than a normal flu".

[Ghost Dog]

6. He'd warned colleagues, and caught the virus, in late December,

it seems. So there were two weeks until symptoms were observed and he was hospitalised, presumably getting some of the best treatment available; then three weeks, and several tests, before he tested positive; then within another week, six in total, he's dead, at 34.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/whistleblower-chinese-doctor-dies-from-coronavirus