My guess: Trump's taxes don't reveal impeachable crimes, but there's something in there bad enough

[StarfishSaver]

to turn off and drive away his base and to humiliate him.

I can't imagine what that could be given how slavishly and blindly devoted they are to him and his utter lack of conscience and shame. But he knows what it is, he knows it's bad and he's sure he needs to fight to the bitter end to keep them from seeing it because he can t bear to face the consequences.

[splat]

1. Money laundering for the Russians, who own his debt n/t

[StarfishSaver]

2. Do you think that's enough to humiliate him and drive away the base?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

12. Money laundering wouldn't show up as such in his tax returns,

(there's no line for that on a 1040) but a forensic accountant might be able to figure it out. Whether it would humiliate him is doubtful, though, unless going to prison counts as humiliating.

I think the only thing that could be revealed in his tax returns that might humiliate him is proof that he's not rich at all and that he's deeply in debt.

[Hoyt]

27. That's what I think too -- His returns will show he's not as successful as he wants us to believe.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

30. The average person probably doesn't understand what "money laundering" means.

It doesn't figure in their day-to-day lives. "Hey Bob," says the bowler to his friend, "have you heard that Fred got caught money laundering?" "Was he using the wrong kind of detergent?" Both laugh, and Bob throws a strike.

Even if there were computer files labeled "Trump Money Laundering Schemes" in the taxes, it wouldn't move a single vote.

[Merlot]

10. How does that show up in his taxes?

[StarfishSaver]

17. One way

Crooked Guy gives him $10 million - he declares $1 million on his taxes and buries the rest of it somewhere else. There's now a record of him getting money from Crooked Guy that could lead investigators to dig around Trump's finances to see if there are any other strange transactions or expenditures during that time that could be linked.to Crooked Guy.

[GusBob]

3. Humiliate yes. Drive away base never

The fools will be the jerks who put him on the richest people list

[StarfishSaver]

18. If he's humiliated, that will drive them away

His main value to them is his supposed invincibility. If he starts looking like a punk, he loses his tie to them

[Arthur_Frain]

4. Yeah, I wish we'd stop the rabid speculation.

Too many goddamn letdowns, I don’t need the buildup for this. There may be something actionable in there, and there very well may be nothing but a tired, frightened, empty shell of an old man trying desperately to make himself out to be the success that has always really eluded him.

I don’t know.

But until the court rules that we’d get to see them people claiming they “Know” that his taxes will prove he’s dirty irritates me about as much as when folks (especially politicians) say shit like “The vast majority of people........”. I don’t really give a shit what they say after that, because usually the divide is more like 50-50 or 49-51. And thats a vast majority.

Make a statement of fact that you can verify, or identify your statement as your subjective opinion, and then wait for the reveal.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. 3 potential bombshells:

1) he's never paid taxes due to fraudulent reporting
2) he's not a billionaire
3) he's deep in debt to Russian sources.

And a possible 4th, evidence of money laundering for Russians.

[empedocles]

21. A special kind of 'debt'

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. I think it will be exactly what Michael Cohen said he was doing -

undervaluing properties in order to lessen his taxes on them, and overvaluing the same properties for insurance purposes (and money laundering). I don't think evidence of wholesale tax evasion will either humiliate him or turn off his base, because the MAGAts are likely to regard tax evasion as a good thing - proof that he's a smart businessman who knows how to stick it to the government. Unless he's itemizing deductions for payments to hookers and porn stars, I don't know what would be in his tax returns that might embarrass him.

[Ohiogal]

11. Remember how he said during the 2016 debates

“Not paying taxes makes you smart.”

[Pachamama]

14. +100000

And there are prosecutable crimes associated with this

[former9thward]

32. Then why has NY not prosecuted him?

They have had his taxes for 50 years now.

[marble falls]

7. No but it'll show he had a tax rate of under 14% and committed fraud with the IRS. Ask Al Capone ...

how screwing the IRS worked out for him.

[former9thward]

33. OK, since the IRS has had his taxes for 50 years now

Why haven't they prosecuted him? The went after Capone because they had his taxes.

[mucifer]

8. I doubt we will ever find out

[marble falls]

36. Just hasn't been paid due attention and pressure before. Nows not the time to let up on him.

[beachbumbob]

9. sets up debt, liability, asset structure as well as reveal what he has claimed to have given in

charity, which he has lied his head off over 30 years.

[forthemiddle]

13. Are they truly being audited by the IRS?

If he is, wouldn’t they find any true crimes, or at least have the exact same information that the Congress is suing for?
I agree that the worst they will show is that he’s not as rich as he wants his followers to believe.

[StarfishSaver]

16. I don't think an audit would reveal fraud or crimes

Audits are based on the taxpayers financial records. If they provide documentation to support what's in the returns, there's no clear evidence of fraud.

The fraud becomes a parent if a third party compares the numbers and financial documentation submitted to the IRS with numbers and documentation submitted elsewhere. If they don't match, he's got some 'splainin to do. But that's beyond the IRS's purview.

I think one of the reasons he's fighting
so hard too keep his taxes returns secret is that he knows he submitted different, conflicting information - and probably forged documents - to banks and other entities. If Congress or a prosecutor gets all of those documents and starts comparing them, they'll have a prima facie case of perjury, fraud, forgery, etc.

[crickets]

15. 1. Garden variety tax fraud.

2. Proof he has no real wealth.

[Stuart G]

19. I think that if we see his taxes, it will be proof that...Donald Trump paid Zero in Income Taxes...

... Zero
... Nada
... 00
... Empty
... Nothing
... Brilliant ???
... Illegal
... Foolish
... Con Artist
... Very Stupid if he tried to con the IRS..My guess is no, He didn't try to con the IRS....He just doesn't want anyone to see that he is not as rich as people think he is, and he paid ZERO ..in taxes...When other presidents were truthful about their taxes and that they paid them... He will be somewhat embarrassed, but he really doesn't give a sh*t about anyone but himself.

[gopiscrap]

20. could be minority ownership in a private abortion clinic

[George II]

22. I don't think so, either. Most of what's in them took place before he became president, so...

...most likely they don't fall into the impeachment category.

However, NYS and NYC both levy income taxes, and both of those jurisdictions DO have his tax returns. Not Federal returns but State and City returns.

Letitia James is already on the case. There will be state crimes, probably related to income tax evasion. They're not pardonable.

[CaptainTruth]

23. Sadly, I don't think anything would drive his base away from him.

I don't think he's fighting so hard to keep his tax & bank records secret because he's trying to preserve his base, I think he's fighting because he knows he reported different numbers to the IRS & lenders, committing bank fraud or tax fraud, or both. I think he knows how mobsters were taken down by financial fraud & he realizes he can't just lie his way out of it, so it could take him down too, & that scares him.

[leftstreet]

25. Only if the tax returns prove he's broke. They hate the poor n/t

[Odoreida]

24. Unless he's getting rent from an abortion provider ... n/t

[dawg day]

26. Michael Cohen said Trump understates his income for taxes...

and overstates them for bank loans.

Then again, those are actual crimes, which bother "the base" not at all.

What would bother them, perhaps, would be that he isn't a billionaire, and isn't very rich at all.

I wonder if anyone has tried to add up how much he must be worth? The only really profitable business event I can think of is when he sold that Florida estate for to more than twice what he bought it for-- to
Dmitry Rybolovlev, the Russian oligarch who has all sorts of suspicions of laundering his rubles (he was the one who bought and sold the supposed "Da Vinci" painting last year).

Trump made $45 million on that sale... and the oligarch razed the house afterwards, having paid then more than $90million for an empty lot (he broke it up and sold it in pieces... a rather good way to launder lots of ill-gotten gains).
What else has made him real money? And could that possibly add up to "billions"?

[matt819]

28. Two possibilities

That he has declared multi millions or even billions in income and paid zero taxes.

Or

That he has declared virtually no income and paid zero in taxes.

[Gothmog]

29. I am a corporate attorney and I suspect that these returns will show many interesting things

First, it is clear that trump is not as rich as he claims. The federal forms require gross income numbers and the numbers reported are not what you expect from a true billionaire.

Second, while the federal forms require disclosure of true debt, these forms not require disclosure of private equity investments or foreign ownership of trump assets. It is a common structure to form a LLC with the managers having a small investment and outside equity source having the bulk of the economic investment. In this structure, the "owner" is in effect managing the assets for the private equity investor and only gets paid if the private equity investor gets its investment back plus some sore of preferred return. After the private equity investor gets their investment back plus an agreed to preferred return, then there is a flip and "owner" start sharing in the income of the property at a higher level.

I suspect that many of trump's golf and other properties were financed by Russian or Saudi financing sources and that trump has a small capital account in these investments. Many of trump's golf courses are losing money which means that trump may have little or no equity in these entities.

We need to know who owns these investments. It is common for this structure to provide the right of the private equity investor to remove and replace the management team if certain thresholds are not met. Again, there are reports that trump's golf properties are losing money and so it may that Russian or Saudis private equity investors can remove trump at any time for failure to perform. This could explain why trump is so subservient to Putin and MBS

[Hermit-The-Prog]

35. IOW, he's scared of being shown to be a phoney

[Hekate]

37. Always nice to get an informed opinion. Thanks, Gothmog.

And happy holidays!

[uponit7771]

31. Maddow showed evidence of bank and insurance fraud when dealing with Deutche Bank. He overstated

... the value of his home to the bank.

IE, the reason why they lost his paperwork

[Generic Brad]

34. My two cents...

The tax returns he filed with the IRS don't come close to matching the tax returns he used to secure loans. Can you say massive fraud on an unprecedented large scale?

[jmowreader]

38. I think he's embarrassed as to the source of his money

Listen very, very close: there are no impeachable crimes to be found in Trump's tax returns. Come on, be serious: if you were going to go out and commit a crime, would you then list the money you made from it on your taxes? Of course you wouldn't! Trump is as stupid as he is ugly but there's no damn way he is dumb enough to report his ill-gotten gains.

Having said that, take a very close look at Trump's proclaimed "business": he's a landlord. The man has to sell towels, rent out his name and produce bad television because his actual business - commercial real estate leasing - is what most rich people get into because they need a source of tax loss.

I figure his total Line 7b income (on the new form), not counting what he's getting from charging the government to watch over him, has been between $500k and $2M for the last five years.