Gulf of Mexico states pay attention

[malaise]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of
low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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A Sharpie may be on the way

[eppur_se_muova]

1. Next time they get to 'S' in the alphabet, I hope they name a hurricane Sharpie. nt

[KatyMan]

2. Shit.

We're cruising out of Galveston on Saturday. Hope this doesn't interfere!

[malaise]

3. Sadly this looks like the same area that got hit with Michael last year

We'll see - it's a few days away from land.



NOte - 2.00pm changes
An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[malaise]

4. 8.00pm update from NOAA - formation chance up to 60%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche has increased during
the past several hours. This system is forecast to move northward
and then northeastward across the western and central Gulf of
Mexico during the next couple of days and it could become a tropical
or subtropical cyclone during that time. Regardless of development,
the low could produce gusty winds and rough surf when it nears the
northern Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. For more information about marine hazards while the
low moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

Forecaster Zelinsky