The Ukraine as Stalking Horse

[TygrBright]

This is not a "new" development.

Former Lt. Colonel Putin of the KGB has a virtually endless playbook to run in maintaining and extending his control over the former Soviet Union.

Round One: Play capitalist to cozen the new class of Russian Oligarchs and either drag them under his thumb or run them out of business and confiscate their assets.

Round Two: Use the money to extend tentacles into foreign economies, and insert pro-Russian, anti-democracy code into their political software.

Round Three: Prepare a stalking horse to continue Round Two when the targets realize Russia is Not Their Good Buddy after all.

Ukraine is the stalking horse. Ukraine has always been a reliable frenemy to Russian oligarchy since the Cossacks allied with the Tsar in the 16th Century. It's a complicated place ethnically, politically, and historically, and has always had pro- and anti- Russian factions in its power structure.

Even after Ukraine declared independence in 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union ratified their status as an independent nation, Russian influence remained strong in the nation's power structure, and the center of political gravity for their region continued to be Moscow.

But Putin allowed them their veneer of independence knowing the value of having a "not Russia" in the region that remained, essentially, a Russian front. For more than a decade the "not Russia" mask was cultivated, allowed, and encouraged.

Even after the post-Orange Revolution chaos revealed the extent of Russian influence in the nation, the appearance of conflict served to continue the "not Russia" illusion while Putin and his local puppets brought the governmental and economic structure ever more firmly under Putin's control.

It is the "not Russia" illusion that allows Ukraine to function as Putin's stalking horse.

America's current issues are with "not Russia", you see? They're with Ukraine!

Putin's hands are clean!

Don't believe it.

This is Putin's KGB, pardon me, "the GRU" running the long-range playbook through multiple iterations of Round Three.

One of the purposes of Round Three is to degrade the intelligence and counter-intelligence infrastructures of its targets (Western democracies) in order to keep them from either effectively countering Round Three or preparing for Round Four.

And they are succeeding magnificently using their current puppet regime in the United States.

wearily,
Bright

[MaryMagdaline]

1. K&R

This is excellent, tygrbright!

[Anon-C]

2. маскировка!

[Tommy_Carcetti]

3. *Ukraine.

Also, I think it's a little more complicated than Ukraine as a "stalking horse" or "not Russia."

Putin has long attempted to control both business interests and politics in Ukraine. He has managed to do that only to a varying degree of success.

There are pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs who do Moscow's bidding. But there are plenty of regular Ukrainian oligarchs who just do their own bidding. And then you have the general Ukrainian populace, most of whom have no desire to be lorded over by Moscow.

Putin's control over Ukrainian affairs peaked of course with Yanukovych. The citizens saw this--as well as Yanukovych's own inherent corruption--and revolted against this, which ended up with him fleeing to Russia. But this upending also caused Putin to strike back against Ukraine in its weakened state, seizing Crimea and creating hell in the Donbass region.

As you say, it's complicated. Centuries old complicated, actually.

The two countries share a common historical bond, similar--yet not identical--cultures and languages, but vastly different mindsets. Russia is still imperial minded, whereas most Ukrainians simply want to be left alone.