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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe current state of the 13 flippable 2020 Senate seats (I was asked to make a reply an OP)
Last edited Tue May 12, 2020, 11:22 PM - Edit history (5)
Here is my completely up to date, most detailed post yet on the state of the races.
We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if Paedo Moore is not the Rethug Alabama nominee (and even that bastard will be hard for Jones to beat in a POTUS year in Alabama) and we lose Doug Jones. We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, and the lunatic Rump stooge (and Hope Hicks' ex BF/verbal abuser), Corey Lewandowski. Bolduc and Ayotte are probably their best shots there (with Bolduc worrying me the most), but I feel really good about our chances to hold it, due to Rump being between 11 and 17 points (depending on the poll) underwater overall in NH.
These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 11 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.
These are the only 2 states ATM with our strongest possible candidates running:
Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.
Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy.
Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet:
Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably be between Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014.
Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.)
Montana (The most glaring one, probably, grrrr as Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him, but he has said dozens of times he will not run, I just heard him say it again today. Only redeemable way this works is if Biden makes him his VP pick, which I fully support, as that ticket is the hardest to attack for Rump and the Rethugs.) I think we MIGHT have a shot if Brian Schweitzer changes his mind and runs.
Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and James Mackler)
Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. Jon Ossoff has now declared for David Perdue's seat. So far it looks like the best of the rest are Teresa Tomlinson, Stacey Evans, Sarah Riggs Amico, Jason Carter (Jimmy's grandson), Kasim Reed,and Michelle Nunn.
Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win.)
Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate, Theresa Greenfield (I think she will be the Dem winner) or Chet Culver (not declared) look to be the best of the rest, this is similar Maine IMHO)
North Carolina (our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, grrr, I so hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers) Tillis is so ripe for the picking if we get one of those 2 to run, and still may have a shot if it is another, Cal Cunningham perhaps, or Erica Smith, but both will have a harder time that Stein or Foxx would have had. This one is so so irritating me.
now the two wishful thinking states:
Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he ran (and won!!!) the Governorship. Amy McGrath is who we are probably going to have to roll with, and it is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.)
Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO, even if Beto runs (which I doubt he will.) Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, I hope she wins the Primary, but, I do not see a pathway to anyone beating Cornyn unless something massive breaks our way. MJ Hegar is the Democratic frontrunner atm.
We would need to win FIVE of those 13 to flip it to 51-49 IF Jones goes down in Alabama, and only CO is even close to one that I would say is a pretty good chance to label a semi-lock, and some are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run. My true target is 6 flips, so we are at 52-48, and thus negate Manchin and Sinema, who vote with the Rethugs 55% of the time, far more than any other Democratic Senators. I SO hope Hickenlooper does not become the 3rd member of that posse, lolol.
Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have) TX, and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ and CO now have our best possible, so that leaves:
AK (Begich run!)
MT (Bullock run! or if he is VP, or if he refuses, Schweitzer run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
NC (Foxx and/or Stein run!)
GA (2 seats) (Abrams run! and Yates run! if Abrams is the VP or refuses still, hopefully we can find another strong candidate from that list above.)
IF all those above change their minds and run, I can say, with at least 60% or more confidence, we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets crushed, win 11 of the 13, and if he goes down with my biggest possible EC count giving us EVERY remotely possible EV, we may get all 13, plus keep Jones. If that happened we would have 60 seats, so a filibusterer proof majority.
Finally, one of the dead Red lock states is by far the best bet to be a huge surprise, that being Mike Rounds in SD going down, hopefully to ex-Senator Tim Johnson's son, Brendan Johnson. The max possible EC victory count by the way, that paved the way for a 13 out of 13 sweep plus Jones holding and SD even maybe flipped, was our Dem POTUS nominee 472 - Rump 66. A girl can dream!
rampartc
(5,388 posts)but yes, 472-66 would be a nice way to consign Trumpism to the dustbin of history.
there are 2016 % cut-off reasons, plus demographic underpinnings as to why all the blue is blue,and the red remains
obviously this assumes we can overcome voter suppression (to get to this Blue end-times level tidal wave)
if you turn the map upside down, the red part looks like a wounded (NE thin stripe of red is like a gaping side wound) dog shitting itself
It looks like a wounded elephant.
(shitting itself)
Celerity
(43,128 posts)onetexan
(13,023 posts)And to see it so deeply AA yet so red ...arg.
Sebelius in Kansas would be amazing.
Celerity
(43,128 posts)than Cruz was)
Same weaknesses for Gardner (TOAST in a Blue state) Ernst, Thillis, Sullivan, Collins (first time in ages, and it is a Blue state), McSally, and Daines.
KS and TN are OPEN seats, Tim McGraw and Sebelius can take those and they are the ONLY ones who can!
Only Cornyn and Moscow Mitch are the super reaches
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)He has a net approval rating but his approval rating is only in the 30s (and that's his highest they've ever been), more people have no opinion on him so there's an opportunity to tie him to Moscow Mitch and Trump, which will probably be liabilities in Texas in 2020. There is a decent dive into his numbers at this link:
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/tale-senator-cornyns-poll-numbers-democrats-line-chance-challenge-him-2020
Celerity
(43,128 posts)this number from that link does trouble me
only 59% of TX Dems disapprove of Cornyn overall???!!!!
wtf
xmas74
(29,671 posts)For that seat last month. Abby is trying to keep her House seat. She also received an AFSCME endorsement last month.
I was at the convention. They both spoke then our Council president announced they were AFSCME endorsed.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)I can understand Abrams since she is holding out for the VP but the rest? Beto should have just kept his Senate campaign going and be awarded with a cabinet position if he falls short.
I don't want to see our first term Representative (Abby Finkenauer) run and have a repeat of the double loss (lose the House seat and the Senate seat).
ChoppinBroccoli
(3,781 posts)............then Beto would be a prime candidate for a running mate. Not only would he put Texas in play (whether or not he could actually bring it home, I have my doubts, but if you make Trump defend Texas, you've already won), but he's exactly the kind of running mate you'd want (young and charismatic) if the nominee happens to be an older guy like Biden.
Merlot
(9,696 posts)and putting Texas into play would be big.
Steve Bullock brings how many electors? 3? The idea that he should be on the ticket just because he won in a red state is democrats once again trying to appease republicans, and we all know how well that works. Bullock, though nice, is not as charismatic as Beto. Biden already as enthusiasm issues, adding Bullock to the ticket won't help that at all.
calimary
(81,125 posts)the El Paso massacre that it wouldnt surprise me to see his poll numbers go up.
He was downright presidential.
xmas74
(29,671 posts)That she's running to retain her seat. I was at a recent convention and we endorsed her. Greenfield was endorsed for Senate that same night.
bucolic_frolic
(43,062 posts)there are voters without brains
Gumboot
(531 posts)Cory Gardner has got to go, but Hickenlooper has backed the fracking industry over local householders for years. So many people have lost their well water supplies here due to fracking, and instead of trying to help, he's threatened to sue them instead.
I'll be backing Andrew Romanoff instead, a true progressive with an excellent platform.
https://andrewromanoff.com/
Celerity
(43,128 posts)As you could probably tell, I am not a big Hickenlooper fan, lol. I just want us to win, and I have said for months that I think Gardner is toast no matter who we put up, but Hickenlooper sure seems to be a pure lock now, unless something big happens.
I was disappointed that Jena Griswold decided to not run, but she is only 34, so has plenty of time.
I knew Hickenlooper's record on fracking (he drank the fluid, etc, lol) and fossil fuel expansion in CO, but was neutral somewhat (would have only supported him for POTUS if he won the primary however) until he started that damn red-baiting. I am very pragmatic when it comes to the POTUS, but ffs, accusing progressives of recycling Marxist and Stalinist ideas?? Come the hell on. That is a straight up RW Rethug smear and talking point.
If he tries that in the Senate race he is bonkers.
RobertDevereaux
(1,847 posts)Here's what Romanoff emailed yesterday. [I've omitted the links to donate.]
%%%%
The Senate race got a little bigger today, and the choice became even clearer.
We deserveand I pledge to runa campaign grounded in public policy. I know and respect both Cory Gardner and John Hickenlooper, but I disagree with them on some fundamental issues.
As Colorados next senator, Ill lead the fight for a Green New Deal. Theyre leading the fight against it.
Ill champion Medicare for All. Theyve vowed to defeat it.
Cory and John have attacked these progressive priorities as socialist or Stalinist. Thats outrageous. Would they say the same of Social Security or Medicare itself? [
Democrats must decide whether we want to combat the climate crisis and end our reliance on fossil fuelor allow polluters to bankroll Congress and block reform. Whether well ensure health care for allor condemn half a million Americans to bankruptcy each year and thousands to an early grave. Whether well build an economy that works for everyoneor force families to work even harder for less.
The best way to defeat Cory Gardner is to present a clear alternative. Echoing his talking points will achieve nothing and inspire no one. This is no time to surrender our dreams.
%%%%
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)ChoppinBroccoli
(3,781 posts)...........what about Julian Castro? I haven't heard anyone suggest that he drop out and run against Cornyn. He's a viable, experienced candidate too. And quite frankly, the experience would do him good in any future run at the White House he might make.
Celerity
(43,128 posts)Cornyn isn't Cruz, and back-to-back-to-back defeats would put Beto on ice, electoral career-wise.
I personally have not been strongly pushing either to run v Cornyn. Castro's de-crim stance on illegal immigration, plus his reparations platform are both electoral poison in TX.
MagickMuffin
(15,933 posts)I think Julian could beat Cronyn because of his name recognition and Texas has a large hispanic base that would vote for him.
However, I wanted Julian to run against Abbott last election cycle. I think he would have won that race as well. He has a good message and I think he would have a large following.
standingtall
(2,785 posts)that she will be the nominee. They are several other candidates already in the race and several big name candidates such as Rocky Adkins still considering it.
Corgigal
(9,291 posts)however I'm waiting to see if Matt Jones will run. He would be the best candidate. Look him up, you'll see.
standingtall
(2,785 posts)If we are going to go with a conservative Democrat than we might as well go with the one that has proven he can win in republican areas of the State and that would be Adkins. As far as Matt Jones goes. I like Matt Jones, but he would have little to no chance of beating McConnell. Our best chance of beating McConnell with a pro-choice candidate would be Adam Edelen if he runs.
Corgigal
(9,291 posts)for anyone against McConnell. We just moved here 2 years ago, it's my first vote against this asshole. Can't wait.
Danascot
(4,690 posts)Retaking the Senate is absolutely crucial to the survival of the country. I want this issue to be front and center from now until election day.
We have a path to victory but it is not at all a sure thing. Are people assuming we'll win based on the 2018 blue wave? I cannot for the life of me understand why more people aren't galvanized by this issue and why our best candidates wouldn't run. Take one for the team guys & gals!
kiri
(789 posts)What is ATM in your usage?
Celerity
(43,128 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)To reread later and absorb it all... Great work !
mwooldri
(10,301 posts)Would be nice to see Virginia Foxx (T) out of a job. But that's the House and not Senate. I don't see a high profile candidate to take on Tillis in NC
Celerity
(43,128 posts)recruitment situ really is pissing me off.
these are the big 6 where they simply must change their minds
MT (Bullock run! or if he is VP, or if he refuses, Schweitzer run!)
TN (McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
NC (Foxx and/or Stein run!)
GA (Abrams run! or Yates run! if Abrams is the VP or refuses still)
If you put Bullock, Foxx and Yates (I really think Abrams is going to be Biden's VP pick, her or Deval Patrick, in which case Abrams must run IMHO) , plus the other three single picks into those 6 races, we have a fighting shot at a sweep, and winning at least 3 or 4 at a bare minimum.
Celerity
(43,128 posts)Last edited Fri Sep 27, 2019, 07:30 AM - Edit history (3)
Abrams will NOT run (she is going for VP) so we REALLY need Sally Yates to step up to the plate as that helps with one of the 2 GA Senate races we now have.
Stacey Abrams will not run for Senate seat in Georgia now that Republican Johnny Isakson to retire
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/stacey-abrams-not-run-johnny-isaksons-senate-seat-georgia/2145887001/
WASHINGTON -- Democrat Stacey Abrams, former gubernatorial candidate in Georgia, said Wednesday she will not be running for the seat Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., will be vacating, after he announced that he will be retiring for health reasons. An Abrams spokesman said in a statement: "Our thoughts are with Senator Isakson and his family. Leader Abrams' focus will not change: she will lead voter protection efforts in key states across the country, and make sure Democrats are successful in Georgia in 2020."
While she will not be a candidate herself, she is committed to helping Democratic candidates win both Senate races next year," the statement continued.
A special election will be held in November 2020 to fill the remaining two years of Isaksons term in addition to the regular election already planned because Sen. David Perdue's, R-Ga., full six-year term is up in early 2021. Perdue is seeking re-election for another six years in the Senate, the Atlanta Journal Constitution has reported. Isakson's retirement means that both Republican-held Senate seats in the state will be up for grabs in the same election next year.
Abrams has also already taken herself out of consideration for a 2020 presidential run after she garnered national attention following her 2018 run for governor. But Abrams has said she would be open to being the running mate on the Democratic ticket next year.
snip
Jon Ossoff Will Run for Senate in Georgia
Mr. Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker who nearly flipped a conservative House district in 2017, will run in one of two Senate races in the state next year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/09/us/politics/jon-ossoff-2020-georgia-senate.html