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Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:46 AM

The conventional wisdom is that impeachment will help Trump.

But I don't understand exactly how it would help Trump and the Republicans??

It seems to me that if Trump was impeached, it would increase Democratic turnout.

Trump's base is going to turn out, if there is impeachment or not. I don't see where he increases his vote totals?

Perhaps someone can explain how this would work?

Is there a "silent majority" out there just waiting for a reason to vote for Donald Trump?

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Reply The conventional wisdom is that impeachment will help Trump. (Original post)
kentuck Apr 2019 OP
Fiendish Thingy Apr 2019 #1
TwilightZone Apr 2019 #26
Fiendish Thingy Apr 2019 #32
Eliot Rosewater Apr 2019 #27
Fiendish Thingy Apr 2019 #33
Eliot Rosewater Apr 2019 #34
Fiendish Thingy Apr 2019 #35
Eliot Rosewater Apr 2019 #44
mcar Apr 2019 #45
ehrnst Apr 24 #47
BlueWI Apr 2019 #41
ehrnst Apr 24 #48
BlueWI Apr 24 #50
ehrnst Apr 24 #53
BlueWI Apr 24 #57
OhZone Apr 2019 #2
stopbush Apr 2019 #3
kentuck Apr 2019 #4
PRETZEL Apr 2019 #10
Chin music Apr 2019 #11
OhZone Apr 2019 #9
kentuck Apr 2019 #12
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #13
bdamomma Apr 2019 #46
ProudMNDemocrat Apr 2019 #5
Ponietz Apr 2019 #6
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #14
anarch Apr 2019 #18
BlueWI Apr 2019 #43
redstatebluegirl Apr 2019 #7
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #15
world wide wally Apr 2019 #8
Chin music Apr 2019 #16
MineralMan Apr 2019 #17
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #19
redstatebluegirl Apr 2019 #36
uponit7771 Apr 2019 #42
manor321 Apr 2019 #20
unblock Apr 2019 #21
jmowreader Apr 2019 #25
kentuck Apr 2019 #22
diva77 Apr 2019 #40
loyalsister Apr 2019 #23
KPN Apr 2019 #24
Recursion Apr 2019 #29
Recursion Apr 2019 #28
kentuck Apr 2019 #30
Recursion Apr 2019 #31
librechik Apr 2019 #37
ms liberty Apr 24 #58
Awsi Dooger Apr 2019 #38
ElementaryPenguin Apr 2019 #39
llmart Apr 24 #49
marylandblue Apr 24 #55
blm Apr 24 #51
mainstreetonce Apr 24 #52
FBaggins Apr 24 #54
Thomas Hurt Apr 24 #56

Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:51 AM

1. It's really not truly conventional wisdom

It's just the ill informed, evidence-free opinion of bland centrists and cowardly defeatists, which gets spread around as "some people are saying" by pundits.

Impeachment can only help the Dems; for more rationale in favor of impeachment, see links in my sig line.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:42 PM

26. "evidence-free opinion "

Well, the claim that there wouldn't be a backlash and that this wouldn't be politically damaging to Democrats in any way is no more based in evidence than the contrary opinion. It's just a guess based on very limited information.

At this point, contrary to your confidence in your opinion, no one, including you, has any clue what the ramifications would be.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #26)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 01:31 PM

32. We can identify the risks to the Constitution

Of Trump continuing unchecked and unimpeded.

Any electoral consequences are necessarily speculative.

For informed speculation as well as evidence based arguments for impeachment, please follow the links in my sig line.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #1)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:45 PM

27. Yeah, I mean what the fuck does someone like Nancy Pelosi know about politics, right?



dont bother responding, this is the FIRST and LAST time I talk to you

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #27)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 01:32 PM

33. Ah, see you're focused on politics...

Whereas I’m focused on protecting the Constitution...

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #33)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 01:37 PM

34. Yeah, what does Nancy Pelosi know about protecting the Constitution...



EVERYTHING is what she knows, pretty much.

Getting the nazis out of power is the goal, period.

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #34)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 01:42 PM

35. The Constitution can't wait until 2020

Apparently you’re OK with letting “the Nazis” continue unimpeded until then.

Just a reminder, the Nazi’s weren’t removed from power by an election...they were “impeached” by the allied forces...

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #35)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 05:17 PM

44. Another VICIOUS PERSONAL ATTACK

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #35)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 06:59 PM

45. Don't think Eliot said that

But that's obvious.

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #35)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 10:07 AM

47. Attack that Strawman much?

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #34)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 04:40 PM

41. Have you noticed that not every Democrat agrees with Pelosi?

It would seem not.

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Response to BlueWI (Reply #41)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 10:11 AM

48. Dems don't need all agree on everything. However, Nancy has been selected by our reps

in their collective experience serving with her, and dealing with Trump as the most capable to lead our caucus and make certain crucial decisions as Speaker.

I know enough to know that I'm not qualified to armchair quarterback her decisions. I'll defer to her decades of experience and deep knowledge of where the bodies are buried and other information that I don't have access to.

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Response to ehrnst (Reply #48)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:12 PM

50. Being an active citizen with independent insight is not armchair quarterbacking.

Officeholders are elected to represent us. It's our republic if we can keep it, as the founders said.

Dissent is patriotic, and it's often justified as we look back at the many instances where citizen activism led to just and wise action.

The impeachment issue may be one case where the voices of dissenters lead and official leadership follows. We'll see.

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Response to BlueWI (Reply #50)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:34 PM

53. And flying the plane looks very different from coach than it does from the cockpit.

I don't assume I'm entitled or qualified to march in and tell the captain how to get us to our destination faster, even though I'm pissed off at the delay, even if most of the rest of the passengers are pissed off, too. Some things require judgement that a crowd of angry people doesn't have.

As I said, dissent is not considered bad among Democrats - we don't walk lockstep. But that also means that not everyone is going to get what they want RIGHT NOW THIS VERY MINUTE. Someone has to make the decisions, and not everyone is going to be pleased with every decision. Democrats have leadership of the house. Yes, by all means let your rep know what you think, but I trust Nancy to do the job her peers selected her for, and not simply abandon it in an effort to make everyone happy in a dystopian time in our country. I like the fact that she's NOT seeking higher office, so she'll do what she thinks will be best for the country, instead of trying to win a popularity contest. I like that she's not freaking out, screaming or otherwise trying to validate fears that she doesn't know how serious the situation is.

We are all frustrated, and blaming someone for it feels more powerful and in control than acknowledging what we can't control right now.

Giving everyone on the bus a handle for a brake will get us nowhere. I'm not a straight white male, so I'm used the world not revolving around my preferences, so I have some tools to get through this.

One of them is coping well when the world doesn't display deference to my expectations.





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Response to ehrnst (Reply #53)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 07:15 PM

57. Meh.

Being an active citizen = flying coach.

Ok. Got it.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:51 AM

2. Because it will fail in the senate -

And will make it look like Trump was innocent.

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Response to OhZone (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:53 AM

3. The way OJ's acquital made him look innocent.

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Response to OhZone (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:55 AM

4. Or would it make the Republicans look as guilty as Trump?

The facts would speak fairly loud, I would think. How do you defend working with the Russians and obstructing those attempting to get to the truth? Is the Repub propaganda that good?

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Response to kentuck (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:06 AM

10. That's the thing

I think too many Democrats are looking at this as something that could damage them in the coming elections. I tend to disagree but it has to be done right,

Yes, impeachment is at its core a political issue and that public opinion ultimately plays a part in that process. However, and I think as time plays on and as the administration continues to stonewall subpoenas and the oversight process, that perception just as easily turns on the Republicans.

I absolutely agree that the various committees need to continue investigations, not only based on the Mueller Report, but with other actions taken.

This is going to be a process. As the committees find the evidence that the administration not only committed acts not in accord with the Office of the President, then the Articles of Impeachment will have both merit and will have irrefutable evidence.

That is the job at hand.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #4)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:09 AM

11. +1

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Response to OhZone (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:03 AM

9. An impeachment is an indictment. If the Senate doesn't toss him out, it's like an aquittal.

An impeachment is an indictment. If the Senate doesn't toss him out, it's like an acquittal.

Oh well.

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Response to OhZone (Reply #9)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:09 AM

12. Maybe they can get Barr to declare him exonerated again?

He can say it but that doesn't necessarily make it true. The facts are over-whelming.

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Response to OhZone (Reply #2)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:09 AM

13. Then at the least let America see that it's republicans wanting to keep the criminal in place

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #13)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 07:03 PM

46. and not doing a thing about it either

GOP=thugs/criminals

McConnell needs to go. Guilty as sin.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:56 AM

5. We know how Trump TWISTS things to his advantage....He is SCARED....

Trump will use impeachment as a reason why he needs another 4 years to AVOID prosecution and a pardon for crimes he committed as President. He is not sitting happily as more investigations around him take place in all the other venues Mueller farmed them off to. The SDNY, EDNY, NY AG office, and other States where Trump does business, etc.

Then there are the Tax Laws that state that when requested, tax returns must be turned over to a House Committee. Defiance of those requests cannot be disputed. The law is clear.

Trump will be as defiant as if he were a King. It is up to us as voters to resist those claims that NO ONE is above the law, not even a King or President. We must also paint any Congressional Republican who is loyal to Trump as an AIDER and ABETTOR of a Criminal, thus a TRAITOR to the very US Constitution they swore to uphold against enemies of the US be they Foreign or Domestic. I doubt Republicans running for State and Federal offices will like the moniker of TRAITOR. We must make our voices loud and clear as the Election approaches however we can.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 10:58 AM

6. I think it comes down to just not having 220 votes

I want everyone, Democratic and Repuke, on the record, now.

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Response to Ponietz (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:10 AM

14. This is another possibility

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Response to Ponietz (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:12 AM

18. yup. n/t

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Response to Ponietz (Reply #6)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 04:41 PM

43. Important point.

Hopefully the Speaker is a yes vote herself.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:00 AM

7. He will play the victim, say the democrats targeted him and solidify his support

with his base, and peel off a few independents who are sick of all of the investigations and see themselves as victims. I hate a man that whines and he whines better than anyone I have ever seen. Some people react positively to that bull so we have to be careful. I would rather begin serious investigations based on the report and keep it on the front page until election.

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Response to redstatebluegirl (Reply #7)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:10 AM

15. He'll do that anyway, he's a liar. We're damned if we do damned if we don't might as well do the....

... right thing

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:01 AM

8. There is s reason Republicans don't want Trump impeached

Think about it.

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Response to world wide wally (Reply #8)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:11 AM

16. Exposure to sunlight?

All that NRA money they thought was free.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:12 AM

17. Then, there is unconventional wisdom, which appears to be what we need.

Conventional wisdom leads you down the same road you're already on. We need to take the left fork, instead.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:14 AM

19. Impeachment hurt dems after Johnson and Clinton and hurt reps after Nixon there's no

... factual consensus on this.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #19)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 02:56 PM

36. It never turns out well.

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Response to redstatebluegirl (Reply #36)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 04:40 PM

42. +1

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:14 AM

20. It won't. It will put Republicans on the DEFENSIVE, having to defend Trump's actions.

 

Impeachment is all upside for us.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:14 AM

21. Proponents of this argument point to Clinton's impeachment

And acquittal in the senate, after which Clinton's popularity went up, and Democrats picked up seats in Congress in 1998, a rarity in a presidency's 6th year.

And most of the main actors on the republican side did not fare well politically after that.


Of course, this overlooks a number of facts, such as that the impeachment drive against Clinton was obviously driven by partisan politics and the "high crimes and misdemeanors" cited were widely viewed more as tawdry and inappropriate rather than criminal or a basis for removal as president.


While I agree that it's important not to seem overly eager or partisan in pursuing impeachment, I think the public already recognizes that Donald fraud's crimes are vastly more serious and that impeachment is more than appropriate.

A sustained, formal focus on the crimes of him and his cronies will not serve him well politically, even if the senate bails him out.

Moreover, people don't understand that failing to impeach him in the first place gives him all the advantage of an acquittal without the bad press of a trial.

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Response to unblock (Reply #21)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:36 PM

25. As you know, there's a big difference

The “Contract on America” Congress had several members who campaigned on their plans to impeach Clinton over Whitewater or the Arkansas state trooper scandal. We spent $70 million investigating all the atrocities Clinton supposedly committed and they came up dry. Impeaching him because they claimed he lied about a blowjob (in reality he did not; in DC “sex” is only intercourse; by law blowjobs don’t count. And he didn’t have intercourse with her. Bill Clinton is a talented attorney who got an A in Hair Splitting.) America didn’t see a perceived lie about a BJ to be worthy of impeachment.

Trump is different. There are real and significant crimes here. A halfway decent investigator with Trump Hospitality’s business records and Trump’s dealings with foreign governments would be able to build an extremely solid influence peddling case. Plus the Russia matter. Plus obstruction. If we can build a solid case against him and the Senate acquits, there are 25 Senate Republicans and enough House Republicans to give us a veto-proof majority who will probably lose their seats.

Here’s how it will go: “We stood behind the president when we believed he was innocent of crimes. We can no longer do that.”

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:20 AM

22. I do believe Republicans are very effective with messaging...

...and Democrats are fearful of taking them on in a battle of propaganda. The Repubs are better at it and the Democrats know it.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #22)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 03:20 PM

40. Dems would be better at messaging, too, if they had the media monopoly the rethugs have.

All those hate talk shows can't possibly be as profitable as a well-reasoned discussion show, yet the radio dial, both am & fm plus fux, plus other cable "news" shows (with the exception of a handful), plus PBS are wingnut controlled. Yeah, they're sooooo great at messaging.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:09 PM

23. Suppose there are Democrats who don't support it?

Imagine the vitriol among some angry Democratic voters that would follow.

I recall many conversations with people who expected the worst but hoped to be surprised. There are also people who have been hoping we could just get through four yrs with a minimum of damage.

It seems like the argument in favor of drafting articles of impeachment without further investigation relies on a lot of assumptions. One is that Pelosi has the votes to support them. The usual assumption that if everyone knew they would suddenly agree with those of us who see Trump through our lenses informed by our perception that he is irredeemably corrupt, hateful, and ignorant and has no business being president. I think it is also premature to assume that there are no viable counter arguments.

Impeachment is not a sports event or a reasonable political strategy. It's a response to a tragic situation that requires thorough investigations and a measured approach rather than a knee jerk reaction based on report that aligns with our biases.

A comprehensive investigation is an approach that is consistent with recognition of the fact that it is a glaring abnormality in government as opposed to the historical manipulation of process to inflict political damage (ie Bengazi and the various investigations into Bill Clinton during his prsidency).

The current situation does not necessarily appear to be much different to a lot of people and their elected officials know it.

I think Pelosi has it right. Investigate and see what emerges. They have to consider that there will be defenders who will have their own interpretations and arguments.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:15 PM

24. Conventional in whose minds?! Not mine. Conventional wisdom here, based on Nixon, is that

impeachment proceedings will lead to either his resignation, successful impeachment or unsuccessful impeachment in which case his and the GOPs loss of the WH and Senate in 2020.

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Response to KPN (Reply #24)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:46 PM

29. In the minds of people who remember 1998 (nt)

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:46 PM

28. His turnout is going to be depressed because the ACA still exists and there is no wall

The risk inherent in impeachment is that it gets those people who had given up on him back to the polls.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #28)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:50 PM

30. That is a possibility..

I suppose? But I doubt that there are many that have changed their mind about him. They love him. They are baked in.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #30)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 12:54 PM

31. Two separate questions

They haven't become Democrats by any means, they've just given up on participating in the political process because things turned out to be hard. We want to keep them that way.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 03:02 PM

37. I submit that the public was sick of inflating the issue of infidelity

Last edited Thu Apr 25, 2019, 01:09 PM - Edit history (1)

into a six year pogrom. Clinton committed no crime in the eyes f most of the electorate, most of whom have poor marriages too.

None f us thought it was fair to pick on Clinton just because they could.

With Trump the Republicans are using all the bogus memes of the Clinton impeachment against us--while ignoring the reality of the atrocities Trump is committing against us.

Unlike Clinton, Trump IS IN FACT a corrupt and untruthful criminal who should not be in the oval office. It is absolutely justified to try and obstruct him from damaging more.

There will not be much of a movement complaining about impeaching Trump--most people think he deserves it, unlike Clinton.

Unlike Clinton, impeaching Trump would be enormously popular, except among his true acolytes, whom we outnumber. We need to educate the public about Trump's crimes, most of which the public will never see otherwise

The Senate can block and obstruct as much as they want. If we do what Nancy says and publicize Trump's behavior the fact of whether the corrupt Republicans will block it is minor. WE need to capture the zeitgeist.

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Response to librechik (Reply #37)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 07:50 PM

58. This. Well said. n/t

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 03:10 PM

38. Focus should never be on turnout

Both sides are going to turn out. We are never going to win an election by avalanching the GOP via turnout.

How will swing independents react to impeachment? That is all that matters. IMO, it is a difficult forecast but bottom line 56% of independents are male. That's what makes me nervous. Very easy for males to rationalize a shift back to the right, especially when economic conditions are good and an incumbent holds the White House. Swing voters assign credit to the incumbent if the economy is good, and that variable tends to obliterate all other factors.

We need to do anything to keep Trump's approval rating where it is now. If impeachment would accomplish that, I am not against impeachment. This is not an easy evaluation. Comparisons to prior situations are not fully valid.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Tue Apr 23, 2019, 03:17 PM

39. And that's asinine!!!

This guy committed treason! He's not being accused of accepting blow-jobs - which most sane people comprehended was not impeachable.

Nobody who didn't like Trump is now going to vote for him BECAUSE HE GETS IMPEACHED - AND IS PUBLICLY SHOWN TO HAVE DONE AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF WRONGDOING!!

His disapproval numbers would continue to rise over the course of impeachment - and the GOP senators that refuse to convict this obviously guilty traitor will be hurt in their own reelection races.

Trump desperately wants to be reelected (to avoid prison), and if his side really believed it would help him to be impeached they would want him to be - but they don't want him to be impeached - and Trump clearly does not want to be impeached!

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 10:12 AM

49. Speaking for myself...

I've never been one to go along with "conventional wisdom" anyway, since I actually think I'm smart enough to form my own opinions. Conventional wisdom to me is like "just follow the crowd". That's pretty dangerous. I'm not always right; I'm not always wrong, but my decisions are based on my instincts and facts.

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Response to llmart (Reply #49)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:47 PM

55. That's pretty much how I do it, but

I've noticed that if I disagree with someone based on my own thinking they tend to be unable to absorb it. In this case, my ambivalence about impeachment is based on Trump being unlike any President in recent American history, therefore we have to look further afield for historical examples. But I've had no luck explaining to anybody why the assassination of Julius Caesar is a more instructive precedent than Clinton or Nixon.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:16 PM

51. It's pure bullshitbeing pushed by Trump and GOP - a Dem would be pretty damn naive

or cowardly to notcall their bluff and take it to the whole lot of them.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:29 PM

52. If they don't impeach

I can hear Trump rallying crowds.
They wanted to impeach me,but they couldn't. That proves I am innocent. Proves it was all a witch hunt.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:43 PM

54. I would not assume that he can't pick up votes

There are a significant number of Republicans who refused to support him the first time around because they assumed that they were being lied to about judges and assumed that he would not govern as a conservative. Those people are now willing to accept pretty much anything if it means replacing Ginsburg or Breyer with another Kavanaugh.

There are also millions of people who don’t follow politics and don’t care about what he’s done. “It’s the economy, stupid” is still a thing.

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Response to kentuck (Original post)

Wed Apr 24, 2019, 06:48 PM

56. I think the argument would be...

he is impeached but not convicted. He and the GOP use that narrative to attack the Democrats. He wins.

Donnie is a martyr grift.

Not saying that the citizenry would buy it but I am not saying that enough wouldn't either.

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