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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe bond market is flashing its biggest recession sign since before the financial crisis
***The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes has fallen below 10 basis points for the first time since 2007.
***An inverted yield curve, where short-term yields are higher than their longer-term counterparts, is considered a reliable recession signal.
***The Federal Reserve this week said the U.S. economy is still strong but is facing challenges from global weakness.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powells assertion this week that the U.S. economy remains strong is facing a stern test from the bond market.
In fact, government fixed income yields are delivering a strong recession indication that hasnt happened since 2007
The spread, or yield curve, between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes just broke the longest streak ever of being above 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point. The two maturities were last below that level in September 2007, a run of 3,009 trading days, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
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The two maturities inverted (last) Friday morning, a near-perfect sign that a recession is coming. An inverted yield curve does not mean a recession is imminent but that one is likely over the next year or so.
Economists see the yield move as a dark signal for an economy coming off its best year since the recovery began in mid-2009.
Yield curves are responding to what they see, to what I believe is a global economic slowdown, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. You dont see this kind of move in curves, not just here but everywhere, unless you get one.
Short-term yields moving ahead of their longer-duration counterparts is seen as a sign that growth will be higher now than it will be in the future. New York Fed research considered by many to be seminal on the spread between yields found that the most-telling relationship was between the 3-month and 10-year notes.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy for the Fed, said Wednesday that it wont be raising rates anytime soon likely for at least the rest of the year unless economic conditions change.
Powell said the U.S. economy is in a good place though it is facing pressure from slowdowns in Europe and China. He and his colleagues collectively lowered their expectations for GDP growth domestically, now seeing just a 2.1 percent gain in GDP for all of 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020.
WATCH: Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller: Greater than average chance of recession in next 18 months
(snip)
All anyone needs to do is read the first paragraph of the Fed press statement to see that the central bank has marked down its assessment of the economic landscape the choice of words suggests far more than the tweaking that was done to the numerical projections, David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, said in his daily note Thursday.
Like other financial market observers, Rosenberg noted the diverse reactions between the bond and stock markets fixed income yields are falling, indicating lower growth, while the stock market is rising.
The stock market may not agree with the recessionary message from the Treasury market, but it would be foolish to disregard this bond curve move entirely, he wrote. The real yield [compared to inflation] on a 10-year note has collapsed to a 14-month low of 0.56% it never got his low during any part of the 2008/09 Great Recession, for some perspective.
To be sure, the dire warnings coming from the bond market have been coming over the past year or so, with still no recession in sight. Some market veterans are betting that this may be an example of the stock market getting it right and the fixed income side being too cautious.
Could it be that the yield curve is signaling weak global economic growth and low inflation without necessarily implying a recession in the US? We think so, and the US stock market apparently supports our thesis, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in his morning note Friday. So why are global stock markets also doing so well? Perhaps there is too much pessimism about the global economic outlook.
Theres also some indication in the market that the Feds move Wednesday to telegraph a decidedly dovish stance could help widen the spread somewhat.
However, the challenges for the economy remain.
It will come down to the U.S. consumer. Thats the last thing thats holding us up, Boockvar said. Well need a decline in the stock market to tip over the consumer. So if the stock market can hang in, I think the U.S. can continue to see some growth. If we start to go back to the December lows again, that could be enough to tip us over.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/a-key-recession-indicator-just-did-something-that-hasnt-happened-in-12-years.html
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)Takket
(21,625 posts)Rethugs destroy the economy
Dem becomes president and inherits the mess
Foreclosures and unemployment are blamed on the Dem
Dem fixes economy by second term
Rethugs take credit for the fixing and get elected
Return to start
unblock
(52,317 posts)2008 was a financial recession. the cause was a financial screw-up; too much lending to subprime mortgages and too much dependent on that financially. the underlying economy was otherwise not in bad shape. think of it as a good car that gets an oil leak and the whole thing seizes up without lubricant, but most of the systems were otherwise fine.
ok, extensive damage, but you repair it and move on.
this time there's no safe haven. every sector of the economy is showing cause for concern. when the collapse happens this time, the damage will be more severe and more widespread and more fundamentally difficult to repair.
it may very well look more like the great contraction of the 1930s.