McConnell Underwater in Kentucky

[applegrove]

McConnell Underwater in Kentucky

February 21, 2019 at 3:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 130 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2019/02/21/mcconnell-underwater-in-kentucky/

"SNIP....

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kentucky finds just 33% of voters approve of the job Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is doing, while 56% disapprove and 11% are unsure.

.....SNIP"

[ProfessorGAC]

1. Reality About The Puny Tax Cuts Sinking In?

Just hazarding a guess. Maybe in conjunction with the shutdown?

[marble falls]

2. Would 55% disaprove enough to vote for a good Democratic candidate? Is there a Kentucky ...

"Beto" or "Beta"?

[Blue_true]

3. An attorney who is a massively popular radio DJ there has filed to run in the democratic primary.

From what a few people have written about him an DU, he is a real liberal and really sharp guy.

[Cha]

11. Matt Jones!

This Liberal Sports Radio Host Thinks He Can Take Down Mitch McConnell

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/25/adam-jones-kentucky-mitch-mcconnell-sports-radio-217656

[Polybius]

20. Can a real liberal win in super-conservative Kentucky though?

We might need to nominate Manchin II, I fear.

[Blue_true]

22. I think so.

Kentucky has places like Louisville and Lexington and other places where universities are located. Most of the state's population is in those places, but their voting percent records are dismal. People need to realize that people that vote get to make the rules, until we as progressives take that to heart and vote in every election, we will continue to complains about asinine republican policies.

[Stonepounder]

41. Kentucky isn't as conservative as you might think.

The Rethugs have done a job gerrymandering the state to hold the legislature, but until the Trump debacle, while the legislature was GOP, the Executive was Democrats. For quite a while, the top three, Gov. Lt. Gov and AG, were Dems. The thing with The Turtle is that he access to a huge pipeline of money. His wife's father is a shipping magnate and very wealthy, and McConnell also seemingly has a pipeline into Russian Oligarch money that gets laundered through a number of shell Corporations.

[sheshe2]

8. I like this.

Is there a Kentucky ..."Beto" or "Beta"?

I liked Allison Lundergan Grimes.

[Cha]

13. Yeah, that's brilliant!

This Liberal Sports Radio Host Thinks He Can Take Down Mitch McConnell

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/25/adam-jones-kentucky-mitch-mcconnell-sports-radio-217656

[sheshe2]

17. Ha!

This Liberal Sports Radio Host Thinks He Can Take Down Mitch McConnell
He might be right.

Boom.

Let's make it so, Cha. Mitch needs to go!

[California_Republic]

16. Beta. A like it!

[question everything]

4. All depends on who is running against him

[Initech]

5. Vote his ass out already!!!!

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. Oh God, you had my hopes up like you wouldn't believe...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

40. Not being election time I though maybe he drove off a bridge.

[MagickMuffin]

7. About the same % as *Trumpery

* definition (something without use or value)

peas/pods

[guillaumeb]

9. But this has 2 differnt aspects to consider.

1) Would these dissatisfied, and presumably GOP, voters actually vote for a Democrat, and

2) Will McConnell have a GOP challenger?

[madville]

12. Answers

1) No

2) No

He had the same bad numbers in 2014 and easily beat Grimes 57-42.

[Polybius]

21. Why no on #2?

He might have a GOP challenger.

[madville]

26. The interesting thing about McConnell's lack of popularity with KY Republicans

Is that 30-40% typically think he is not conservative enough, think about that a minute, those people that dislike him want a Republican farther to the right. Trump is gonna have GOP challengers but none will get over 5% support, he's too popular in the GOP. Primary voters are a different breed than general election voters though. I doubt McConnell is vulnerable in a potential KY GOP primary, he'll pander to the base leading up to the election, get 60-70% in the primary and Trump will probably make a friendly campaign stop for the general.

All these same polls and articles were done in 2014 and had near identical numbers. PPP skews quite a bit to the left as well, their polling in red states is usually 5-10% left of the final results so I consider that error when looking at their data. In 2014 for example, PPP had McConnell +8 right before the election, he won by +15.

[klook]

32. Useful, though dismaying. Thanks. (nt)

[smirkymonkey]

35. That is really effed up.

How much more to the right can you get than Mitch McConnell?

[Polybius]

37. You'd be surprised

Jesse Helms was 10 times further right. In 2019, Cruz and several others are to his right as well.

[madville]

10. McConnell wins easily with Trump at the top of the ticket

KY went to Trump 62% to 32% for Clinton, McConnell will get a good boost from the turnout.

McConnell had the exact same horrible favorability numbers in 2014 and still beat Grimes by 15%, 57-42. PPP pretty much wrote the exact same article in 2014 also:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-within-striking-distance-of-mitch-mcconnell-for-2014/

[Takket]

14. correct.......

people often confuse "disapprove of" with "won't vote for".

[spooky3]

19. or they may interpret "disapprove of" as "would prefer someone more progressive" rather

than "would prefer someone even more right-wing and loathsome."

[madville]

28. If you look at PPP's past polling data in KY

A large portion of the people that disapprove of McConnell in these polls feel that way because they don't think he is conservative enough..........They don't usually consider the Democrat as an answer to that particular problem.

[INdemo]

38. Take a look at the polls ub 2014 just a few days before the election.

It was a tug of war. Neck and Neck...then all of a sudden McConnell won by 15%...something was wrong there.

A candidate doesn't gain 11 or 12 percent about the average polling in two days....

I think he could be beat but the challenger must have be able to have an excellent staff to guard against vote flipping etc.

[madville]

43. McConnell was between +5% to +9% in 2014 polls leading up a month to the election

They weren't really tied leading up to the election, average from 10/15/14 until election day was McConnell +7.2%. There were some polls months before the election in the margin of error but the gap steadily widened in polling through September and October 2014.

Same thing that year with Abbott and Davis in TX. There were early polls that showed Wendy within 6-8% but as the election draws closer the gap steadily widens and she lost by 20% to Abbott.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

[ffr]

15. GOTV and make it a reality. Flush that turd!

[Lonestarblue]

18. McConnell has usually had a low approval rating in Kentucky.

I lived in Kentucky for years, and I don’t recall McConnell ever having more than 50% approval. Yet somehow he has always won, with rumors of some vote buying and various other activities that have never been proven. Amy McGrath ran a strong campaign against Andy Barr for the Ky 6th district. Barr comes from a wealthy, politically powerful family in the area. Now that McGrath has more name recognition, she might be a good candidate to take on McConnell.

[madville]

33. He's always unpopular

because a large portion of the voters think he isn't conservative enough.

[JudyM]

23. Hoping he'll be indicted by then.

[ashling]

24. Let him drown

[SoCalDem]

46. Amen !!

[zentrum]

25. He's one of

...the most powerful men in the country, and one of the most evil. I'm amazed. Could there really be a ray of hope?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

27. Isn't that normal for him?

[madville]

31. Yes, same numbers as 2014 and he easily won

I'm not saying the 15% gap from 2014 can't be narrowed, he could only win by 5-10% this go around.

[Ford_Prefect]

29. Mitch doesn't care because he's been told by the BIG MONEY that he's fire proof.

[INdemo]

30. Hell he stole the damn election in 2014 and there are some issues that point to the

fact that he might have had Putin's help back then. How did 2.5 Mill of Russian money end up in his PAC..He doesn't even hide that

[Hermit-The-Prog]

34. teaser

I was hoping to read about cops dragging McTurtle out of Green River.

[rufus dog]

36. Don't turtles spend most of the time underwater? n/t

[GulfCoast66]

39. Your dreaming if you think we can beat him.

Not a Kentuckian but went to college there and still have family living there.

A large percentage of his disapproval is from hard core Limbaugh listeners. Who don’t think Mitch has supported trump enough. Outside of Louisville and Lexington there are nothing but evangelical rubes. Ok, I’m sure there are some on DU who don’t match that description, but they are rare.

They aren’t voting Democratic.

[mwooldri]

42. The poll that needs to be done is McConnell vs generic Dem.

Approval ratings matter not. There are plenty of people who do not approve of the job XYZ person is doing, but will vote for them again because they have a R or D by their name.

[defacto7]

44. This has definitely been our lucky day!

[Fuzzpope]

45. F U C K

Y E A H

[Buckeyeblue]

47. I think whoever runs should focus on Kentucky

Neither 45 nor McConnell have done a thing for Kentucky.