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Holy Shit - they're saying Cat3 Hurricane Michael - and it's now Cat4 with 140mph winds (Original Post) malaise Oct 2018 OP
"Fake lib news. It's all OK. I'm in charge. Believe me. Trust me." - Dirty Donny* (R) Achilleaze Oct 2018 #1
How could there be such a bad storm coming? I look outside and it's sunny and clear. TheBlackAdder Oct 2018 #26
Still? malaise Oct 2018 #87
Oh, I'm in NJ :-D TheBlackAdder Oct 2018 #88
I knew you were joking malaise Oct 2018 #90
This will help Rick Scott sadly NewsCenter28 Oct 2018 #40
Storm gonna scuzzy up the red tide, of toxic big ag republicorp origin Achilleaze Oct 2018 #47
I was sicking watching local TV this afternoon in Miami Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #66
You know Don the Con is really bad luck malaise Oct 2018 #97
Malaise...new to this Lars39 Oct 2018 #2
It's developing much faster than expected. Ilsa Oct 2018 #3
Thanks! Lars39 Oct 2018 #4
Plus it's got some really warm water that it is going to traverse BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #6
So many variables Lars39 Oct 2018 #8
Are they even open? I thought they (and on either side) got hit pretty hard from Florence BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #10
It's right in the path of the storm. dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #11
I hope the area isn't hit hard Lars39 Oct 2018 #25
When is hatching time? dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #36
Not sure. Lars39 Oct 2018 #37
Oct is really the end of the season. aikoaiko Oct 2018 #102
Are you talking about Top Sail in North Carolina? Separation Oct 2018 #46
No, the one in Santa Rosa Beach FL. Lars39 Oct 2018 #48
National Hurricane Center prediction YessirAtsaFact Oct 2018 #5
NOAA, Noon news on all Florida stations and here's the WashingtonPost malaise Oct 2018 #7
Thank you! Lars39 Oct 2018 #9
Stay safe malaise Oct 2018 #12
Yeah, this is not a good time to visit the coast of the Florida Panhandle csziggy Oct 2018 #15
Thanks for the information! Lars39 Oct 2018 #16
Mr. Dixie didn't understand my insistence that we keep 1/2 tank in the car at all times. dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #38
'sWhat kills me is that my husband's Prius was already warning about low gas csziggy Oct 2018 #41
Mike (from Mike's Weather Page) was predicting a Cat 3 yesterday based on barometric pressure DrDan Oct 2018 #18
Oh ok. Thanks DrDan! Lars39 Oct 2018 #19
Here is the Saffir-Simpson scale DrDan Oct 2018 #22
Thanks! That's good info Lars39 Oct 2018 #23
That did not look right to me, so I checked. dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #39
The chart DrDan posted was in kilometers per hour csziggy Oct 2018 #51
exactly - thanks - I was focussed on the barometric pressure and did not convert wind speeds DrDan Oct 2018 #60
That chart uses "Catastrophic" for both cat 4 and 5. Shouldn't cat 5 be "Trump admin"? n/t royable Oct 2018 #54
So how did we know this on Monday but not the people warning folks to move? malaise Oct 2018 #115
Mike was warning us of this storm on Oct 2 - and he was denigrating the media DrDan Oct 2018 #116
Yep malaise Oct 2018 #117
Supposed to make landfall mid-morning on Wednesday! Make your preparations now! Baclava Oct 2018 #13
K&R... spanone Oct 2018 #14
We left home (Pensacola) on Sat. To meet up Grammy23 Oct 2018 #17
I've always wanted to do a river cruise Phoenix61 Oct 2018 #80
:) Serenely watching medieval towns and castles pass by Hortensis Oct 2018 #84
I went out to run errands, thinking I could fill up my tank when I was done The Blue Flower Oct 2018 #20
It will only get worse malaise Oct 2018 #44
A frined's daughter saw a fist fight over gas csziggy Oct 2018 #52
Oh, my. We have a place west of Ocala, and friends Hortensis Oct 2018 #85
We're in Tampa tonight csziggy Oct 2018 #93
Still cat 4 this morning. We've always left our cats at home, Hortensis Oct 2018 #100
The wind is already picking up in Miami & we're nowhere near the center. Scurrilous Oct 2018 #21
I'm surprised how it is pushing clouds up into FL like that. BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #24
I was wondering why we were getting east wind with rain gusts. dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #42
There is a big high over northern Maine BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #53
Hello neighbor Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #56
Been a weather lover since the ripe old age of 8. BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #61
Same Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #91
LOL I didn't even know there was a weather forum here. BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #92
Hypnotic! Scurrilous Oct 2018 #57
Another cool site is this BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #62
Calm but cloudy in Marion County. Unless it shifts East, it should not affect us much. nt Blue_true Oct 2018 #32
Be careful malaise Oct 2018 #43
I should be fine. Blue_true Oct 2018 #45
Stay safe malaise Oct 2018 #98
I am in Tallahassee minoan Oct 2018 #27
Stay safe mcar Oct 2018 #29
villages MOMFUDSKI Oct 2018 #82
Don't think you'll get the worst of it malaise Oct 2018 #31
It's moving fast and taking an Eastward turn I don't like mcar Oct 2018 #28
It's picked up speed from 7mph to 9mph malaise Oct 2018 #30
Thanks malaise mcar Oct 2018 #34
You are on the Gulf coast. Look like trouble for you. Blue_true Oct 2018 #33
Thanks Blue_true mcar Oct 2018 #35
It's still very hot in the Gulf Cetacea Oct 2018 #49
Michael is moving fast - now 12mph malaise Oct 2018 #59
Don't worry .... flying-skeleton Oct 2018 #50
It's amazing how many of his supporters are heading inland malaise Oct 2018 #55
Here's a great website Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #58
Thanks malaise Oct 2018 #63
Excellent info. Scurrilous Oct 2018 #65
Great site workinclasszero Oct 2018 #77
Recent image as we lost daylight (vis - ir) BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #64
It's getting more organized malaise Oct 2018 #67
It's trying to form and stablize an eye. BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #68
Zeroing in on Panama City Beach Baclava Oct 2018 #69
Michael now a Cat 2 as of 8am ET update BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #70
Scary Haynx Oct 2018 #71
Now 110mph malaise Oct 2018 #74
Was heading for the condo next week, now fingers crossed it's still standing. sarcasmo Oct 2018 #72
Good luck malaise Oct 2018 #73
... Scurrilous Oct 2018 #75
Moving north now malaise Oct 2018 #76
My friend's daughter drove home from FSU last night. Scurrilous Oct 2018 #78
Nmichael now 120mph 5.00pm update malaise Oct 2018 #83
I just heard the words, possible 4, from a forecaster JCMach1 Oct 2018 #79
The water is hot but I'm not sure there's enough time malaise Oct 2018 #81
He was right malaise Oct 2018 #103
24k stuck in Panama City Beach area with no way out JCMach1 Oct 2018 #114
Hurricane Michael's Storm Surge Will Likely Erode 75 Percent of Florida's Gulf Coast Beaches Scurrilous Oct 2018 #86
Those high rise hotels will also face a serious test malaise Oct 2018 #89
140mph is catastrophic malaise Oct 2018 #96
Yep. Scurrilous Oct 2018 #99
The worst side of Michael could devastate Apalachicola malaise Oct 2018 #101
Aren't the areas that are going to be hit mostly red? LakeSuperiorView Oct 2018 #94
Yes malaise Oct 2018 #95
Did the con say that in terms of water that this is supposed to be the wettest? TexasTowelie Oct 2018 #104
LOL malaise Oct 2018 #105
As of 7:45 is now 145 mph and down to 933 mb, so very deadly wishstar Oct 2018 #106
145 mph, still strengthening. Only 10 mph below a Cat 5 now. Hortensis Oct 2018 #107
Scary indeed malaise Oct 2018 #110
I'm getting tired of climate change, Hortensis Oct 2018 #112
Kick superpatriotman Oct 2018 #108
Well say one thing for Don the Con malaise Oct 2018 #111
145 now - with hours more over the bathtub gulf DrDan Oct 2018 #109
"I'm not seeing the level of traffic on the roadways that I would expect" - Sheriff Ford said womanofthehills Oct 2018 #113

Achilleaze

(15,543 posts)
1. "Fake lib news. It's all OK. I'm in charge. Believe me. Trust me." - Dirty Donny* (R)
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:09 PM
Oct 2018
* aka republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

NewsCenter28

(1,835 posts)
40. This will help Rick Scott sadly
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:12 PM
Oct 2018

In his deadlocked senate race. I’m praying it is nowhere near as bad as feared.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
66. I was sicking watching local TV this afternoon in Miami
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 09:26 PM
Oct 2018

Rick Scott was wearing a NAVY hat and matter of factly telling anyone in the panhandle how to proceed. He was terrible at this type of thing early in his years as governor but now he has a relaxed effective delivery with proper emphasis, and it fools many people into believing he gives a damn

Ilsa

(61,656 posts)
3. It's developing much faster than expected.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:14 PM
Oct 2018

It wasn't supposed to be a hurricane until much later today. They revised the estimate from high Cat 2 to Cat 3.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
6. Plus it's got some really warm water that it is going to traverse
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:22 PM
Oct 2018

before it gets to Florida so it will probably explode. Things to look out for at this point though is how it interacts with land (cone is showing it side-swiping Cuba) and what that does to the circulation... as well as what kind of wind shear (if any) happens once it is in the Gulf.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
10. Are they even open? I thought they (and on either side) got hit pretty hard from Florence
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:37 PM
Oct 2018


My concern is how much rain this could generate once it gets on land because rivers are still running high in the Carolinas and this will just exasperate it.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
36. When is hatching time?
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:41 PM
Oct 2018

I have been gratified to see stories of beach volunteers who rescue the exposed eggs, and hatchlings, after storms.

aikoaiko

(34,113 posts)
102. Oct is really the end of the season.
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:35 AM
Oct 2018

Most are hatched by now but a few late nests might still be there.

Separation

(1,975 posts)
46. Are you talking about Top Sail in North Carolina?
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:22 PM
Oct 2018

If so, that was my wife and I's favorite place to go while I was in the Marine Corps and stationed there. There was a little restaurant that had a pier that went over the water and we would go there every weekend for the French Onion soup. Then hurricane Bertha came through and totally destroyed it. Nobody was allowed to rebuild there after that storm.

YessirAtsaFact

(2,064 posts)
5. National Hurricane Center prediction
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:20 PM
Oct 2018

Michael will become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Sustained winds of 110 mph or more.

malaise

(267,460 posts)
7. NOAA, Noon news on all Florida stations and here's the WashingtonPost
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:25 PM
Oct 2018
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081438.shtml


https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/08/michael-strengthens-hurricane-is-forecast-make-landfall-florida-dangerous-category-midweek/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e44637619768

Capital Weather Gang
Michael strengthens to a hurricane and is forecast to make landfall in Florida as a ‘dangerous’ Category 3 midweek

Hurricane Michael is strengthening as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and Florida is its target. The storm is expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. It will probably be the area’s strongest hurricane in 13 years.

“Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Monday.

The storm surge, which is the rise of ocean water at the coast above normally dry land, could reach at least 8 to 12 feet, inundating roads, homes and businesses at the coast.

In addition, “heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday,” the Hurricane Center warned.

csziggy

(34,115 posts)
15. Yeah, this is not a good time to visit the coast of the Florida Panhandle
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:33 PM
Oct 2018

We're outside of Tallahassee but are supposed to board a ship in Tampa on Thursday. Originally we were driving down Wednesday but we're leaving tomorrow ahead of the winds. We'll still have wind and rain but will be inland and should not get into any serious bands.

Our major worry is gas - lots of lines and some stations are running out. My husband was supposed to fill up last Friday but didn't. He's headed to Costco right now to try to fill his car for the drive down.

Save your trip to the sugar sands of the Panhandle or a few weeks.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
38. Mr. Dixie didn't understand my insistence that we keep 1/2 tank in the car at all times.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:58 PM
Oct 2018

It stems from 1995 ( when I was still single) Hurricane Opal was supposed to just graze our area, but in the middle of the night she turned.
The water was ankle deep when I woke up and fled my lil house in the woods, luckily I had enough gas to get out of the area.

I learned the definition of Straight line winds when I returned 3 days later to see 4 trees had dropped on that house.

Never ever take hurricane forecasts for granted.

csziggy

(34,115 posts)
41. 'sWhat kills me is that my husband's Prius was already warning about low gas
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:14 PM
Oct 2018

When he headed home LAST week!

At least he didn't have much problem filling it today. Costco had lines but plenty of gas.

DrDan

(20,411 posts)
22. Here is the Saffir-Simpson scale
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:37 PM
Oct 2018

……………………..Wind km/hr...….Pressure (mb)
Category 5...…….>250...……………<920
Category 4......210-250...………..920-944
Category 3......179-210......…...945-964
Category 2......155-178......…...965-979
Category 1......120-155...………….? 980

Mike, from Mike's Weather Page yesterday used this scale with the projected barometric pressure of 950 mb and predicted a cat-3.

Take a look at his page on facebook. He goes live twice a day on facebook during hurricane season. I like him because he is not linked to a single model but discusses all of them.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
39. That did not look right to me, so I checked.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:06 PM
Oct 2018

this is the scale as we have come to know it down here in hurricane country:



I got this from Wiki, same scale is on the NOAA site:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

csziggy

(34,115 posts)
51. The chart DrDan posted was in kilometers per hour
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:00 PM
Oct 2018

We're used to seeing it in miles per hour. I had to look twice to realize the difference.

malaise

(267,460 posts)
115. So how did we know this on Monday but not the people warning folks to move?
Fri Oct 12, 2018, 04:45 PM
Oct 2018

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:09 PM - Edit history (1)

I accept that the Cat4 was overnight but we were discussing Cat3 since Monday and you did mention Cat4 from a reference.

DrDan

(20,411 posts)
116. Mike was warning us of this storm on Oct 2 - and he was denigrating the media
Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:07 PM
Oct 2018

for downplaying it - particularly the media in the Panama City area.. They were speaking of "tropical conditions". I heard him blasting them for being irresponsible in storm reporting - telling folks not to worry - it's not a big deal.

And what do we get - a strong strong cat 4. 3rd worst storm ever. Worst to ever hit Florida gulf.

Mike pays infinitely more attention to the details than our weather folks do.

Gonna get me one of his drunk-donkey t-shirts in support of his reporting.





 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
13. Supposed to make landfall mid-morning on Wednesday! Make your preparations now!
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:47 PM
Oct 2018

Right now still looking like east of Panama City towards Apalachicola






Grammy23

(5,806 posts)
17. We left home (Pensacola) on Sat. To meet up
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:51 PM
Oct 2018

With my niece and her husband and will fly to France from Boston tomorrow. Did very little prep before we left due to running out of time and this storm was a bit of a surprise to build up so quickly. We are on the edge of the cone so unless something really weird happens, we should be fine. I have had to talk my husband down from the trees as he has worried incessantly since no storm path is certain until it makes landfall. I reminded him if we were home, we would do just a few more things like take down our bird feeders and buy a few things for our hurricane stash. As it is, we will be getting on a River Cruise and will be looking at the storm from 4500 miles away.

I hope Michael is not as bad as they suggest he may be and surely hope that the Carolinas get a break on the rain. Saw Rick Scott this a.m. trying to look prepared, etc. I hope he goes down in flames on Election Day!

Be safe to all those in the path of the storm! Heed the warnings!

Phoenix61

(16,926 posts)
80. I've always wanted to do a river cruise
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:10 PM
Oct 2018

Please post about it when you return. I'm concerned about the storm. Cat 2's are just a big, fat pain in the tush. Cat 3's make me nervous. I'm planning on heading to a friend's house 40 miles inland.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
84. :) Serenely watching medieval towns and castles pass by
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:14 PM
Oct 2018

from deck chairs and dining tables on one of the great rivers of Europe sounds about as different from a hurricane as you can get. Water the only common denominator. Have to remember that next time we need to flee a hurricane.

Have a lovely time.

The Blue Flower

(5,419 posts)
20. I went out to run errands, thinking I could fill up my tank when I was done
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:09 PM
Oct 2018

The grocery stores are packed. By the time I was ready to get gas an hour later, the lines to the gas stations were out to the streets (Tallahassee). I figure people are doing it today because they're off work for Columbus Day. We still have until tomorrow night.

csziggy

(34,115 posts)
52. A frined's daughter saw a fist fight over gas
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:04 PM
Oct 2018

In Pensacola! That's nuts!

My husband had to go to Publix to pick up stuff for our cruise - there were no carts at all in the parking lot or in the front of the store.

And we were just worried about using up stuff in the fridge before we leave for our trip.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
85. Oh, my. We have a place west of Ocala, and friends
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:25 PM
Oct 2018

have warned us that unprepared folk in the mass evacuations heading north from south Florida tend to start running out of gas around Ocala-Gainesville. They thought we should know we needed to prep ahead even though expecting to stay comfortably at home.

That direction's not your concern this time, of course. Hope all goes well and you have a very ice time.

csziggy

(34,115 posts)
93. We're in Tampa tonight
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 11:19 PM
Oct 2018

Filled up with gas south of Gainesville. No lines but every pump space taken. Traffic wasn't too bad. Only bad rain was right where the turnpike left I-75 - absolutely opaque down pour for just those few miles.

Now the Weather Channel is saying Cat 4! If no power at home we can stay down here after the cruise. Mom's house is being tented this weekend but we could stay there once they clear it. I hope our old cat will be okay. Last storm he stayed cuddled up with me. He has a cat door so can get inside but will be alone.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
100. Still cat 4 this morning. We've always left our cats at home,
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:12 AM
Oct 2018

knowing boarding them out would be a serious trauma in itself. Little danger from the hurricane itself, at least. He'll be snug inside and have too much sense to go out.

Saw the tide is especially high in Tampa. Wonderful. We have an old MH on the water there, so it'll be up over the old sea wall already. Sigh.

Imagine you'll be heading for your ship. Hope the food's great.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
42. I was wondering why we were getting east wind with rain gusts.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:15 PM
Oct 2018

Those lovely wind graphics explain it all.
and when I spun the globe, 2 cyclones ...or typhoons??...on either side of India, and one between Hawaii and Wes Coast.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
53. There is a big high over northern Maine
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:14 PM
Oct 2018

and coupled with one out in the Atlantic, just west of where TS Leslie is spinning, they are shunting an easterly flow (due to their clockwise circulation) into the east coast. We have been socked in with fog/mist/low stratus clouds all day here in Philly, due to the easterly flow off the ocean.

And yup, good ole Mother Earth is continually spinning up storms all over the place to try to bring the atmosphere into equilibrium - 24/7/365.

Tree-Hugger

(3,363 posts)
56. Hello neighbor
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:19 PM
Oct 2018

And fellow weather enthusiast?
I'm a Summer-lovin' gal, but I am thoroughly over the humidity this year.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
61. Been a weather lover since the ripe old age of 8.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:48 PM
Oct 2018


(which will be almost 49 years in a few months )

Between here and a garden forum, I also post on a weather forum.

Tree-Hugger

(3,363 posts)
91. Same
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 07:15 PM
Oct 2018

I have been obsessed with weather since I was a little kid. I'm just a few years younger than you.
I keep forgetting DU has a weather forum.

You're probably already on it, but there is a great local site called PhillyWx that rocks.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
92. LOL I didn't even know there was a weather forum here.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 08:14 PM
Oct 2018


Looks like it started around 2012. Ha! No I haven't been in there. I post on American Weather forum, a/k/a AmericanWx (used to be called Eastern Weather a/k/a EasternWx). I remember when a bunch of folks left the Philly Region subforum and setup PhillyWx (including a number of the Mt. Holly mets). I do go over there every once in awhile but at this point I am doing too many forums and trying to do chores too so it's getting out of hand! I also post on gardenweb too and I have seen a bunch of longtime posters there who are longtime posters here on DU.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
45. I should be fine.
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:22 PM
Oct 2018

The tracking map that you posted shows the south-western tip of Marion County getting some high wind. I live in the north-east section near eastern Alachua County. Marion County is one of the biggest counties in the state in terms of landmass, so I sit well out of the rough stuff. We did get some rain a few minutes ago, but no wind.

minoan

(95 posts)
27. I am in Tallahassee
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:24 PM
Oct 2018

Looks like the coastal areas are going to be hit hard. We will get 65-75 mph sustained winds and a lot of rain as things stand now. We are all battened down for the duration. Got chocolate cake....

mcar

(42,179 posts)
29. Stay safe
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:30 PM
Oct 2018

I was supposed to see Mayor Gillum in The Villages on Saturday but I'm expecting he'll cancel.

MOMFUDSKI

(5,057 posts)
82. villages
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:35 PM
Oct 2018

Hi mcar - Long time lurker with a few posts some years back. Just wondering if you live in The Villages. If so, tell me what it is like being a Dem there. Am considering a move there from Treasure Island in Florida. Edumacate me . . . .

mcar

(42,179 posts)
28. It's moving fast and taking an Eastward turn I don't like
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:29 PM
Oct 2018

As it brings it closer to me.

We're on TS watch right now.

Hubby called and said school has been cancelled in the district Tues and Wed as they are needed as shelters for those on the West coast. We live about 25 miles inland.

malaise

(267,460 posts)
59. Michael is moving fast - now 12mph
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:26 PM
Oct 2018

so the rain part won't sit there for days or hours

That's good news

flying-skeleton

(693 posts)
50. Don't worry ....
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:51 PM
Oct 2018

Dear Republican Voters:
Don't worry.
FL Governor just released a statement:
CLIMATE CHANGE IS A HOAX.
So see. Nothing to worry right?
Just like Trump said !!
So stay out of take a walk in the park or on the beach & enjoy the view and fresh air.

Tree-Hugger

(3,363 posts)
58. Here's a great website
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:23 PM
Oct 2018
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

It's a great site with dozens of active models so you can track storms. He provides up to date reconnaissance information.

Levi also does a nightly video update whenever there is an active Tropical Storm or Hurricane impacting the U.S. He is extremely knowledgeable and very calm and thorough in his presentations.

malaise

(267,460 posts)
63. Thanks
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:57 PM
Oct 2018

Storm surge will be serious but the faster this moves (and it's now moving at 12mph) the better. That will limit the flooding.
And that's really good news.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
64. Recent image as we lost daylight (vis - ir)
Mon Oct 8, 2018, 09:06 PM
Oct 2018


It doesn't really have much if any of an eye, although it is trying to form it. Probably got disrupted over western Cuba.

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
68. It's trying to form and stablize an eye.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 07:56 AM
Oct 2018

But once that happens, it will be off to the races.

Latest advisory just in (summary of it) has it now at 100 mph -


000
WTNT34 KNHC 091147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/090857.shtml?


The 8 am ET track is similar to the below -



TEXT
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane Michael is moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Here are the 4 am CDT October 9th Key Messages on Hurricane #Michael.
5:24 AM - Oct 9, 2018






TEXT
NHC director Ken Graham will provide a Facebook Live broadcast at 8:15 a.m. EDT (7:15 a.m. CDT) regarding Hurricane #Michael http://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC @NOAA @NWS @NWSWPC #HurricanePrep
7:47 AM - Oct 9, 2018

BumRushDaShow

(126,624 posts)
70. Michael now a Cat 2 as of 8am ET update
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:44 AM
Oct 2018

Also the NHC Storm Surge folks just tweeted this out about 20 minutes ago -



TEXT

NHC_Surge

@NHC_Surge

Water levels will rise well in advance of the arrival of #Michael. It's essential that residents within the storm surge warning area finish preparations to protect life and property today.
9:17 AM - Oct 9, 2018


Because there is a new moon, the tides are already enhanced.

malaise

(267,460 posts)
74. Now 110mph
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:56 AM
Oct 2018

The big difference here is that Florence stalled and flooded the Carolinas
This will be storm surge, wind and rain, but, at 12mph flooding from rain won't be a major problem.

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
78. My friend's daughter drove home from FSU last night.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 12:24 PM
Oct 2018

Everything is shutting down for the rest of the week. Time to GTFO.

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
86. Hurricane Michael's Storm Surge Will Likely Erode 75 Percent of Florida's Gulf Coast Beaches
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:34 PM
Oct 2018

<snip>



Panama City Beach

"Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 3 storm and is very likely to cause erosion at the base of sand dunes of three-quarters of the beaches along the panhandle and flood more than a quarter of its dunes, causing flooding behind protective dune lines, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

If Michael continues to intensify and stay on the National Hurricane Center's forecasted path, storm surge impacts east of the hurricane's eye are expected to be most severe, where storm surge and waves could bring water levels to rise as high as 16 to 20 feet, the USGS predicts.

In the open Gulf of Mexico, wave heights are expected to hit as high as 40 feet, said Kara Doran, the research oceanographer for the USGS. Doran leads the agency's Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team in St. Petersburg, Florida.

“As the storm approaches the coast, the shallow seabed will reduce that wave height,” said Dorn. “But water levels in some parts of the Northeast Florida coast will still be high enough to overwhelm the dunes, which are relatively low and narrow.”

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-10-09-michael-storm-surge-erode-florida-beaches


malaise

(267,460 posts)
89. Those high rise hotels will also face a serious test
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:59 PM
Oct 2018

and the wind will be stronger at the higher levels.

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)
99. Yep.
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:02 AM
Oct 2018
Hurricane Michael becomes Category 4 brute, targets Florida Panhandle -- live updates

<snip>

"The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Hurricane Michael is packing even more punch: It strengthened into a Category 4 storm early Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. According to the NHC's latest advisory, Michael could produce a life-threatening storm surge as high as 13 feet and dump as much as a foot of rain in some places.

Weather officials say Michael has been drawing energy from warm Gulf of Mexico waters, with ocean temperatures in the mid-80s.

The NHC said Michael should make landfall midday Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle or Florida "Big Bend" area. The storm is then forecast to weaken as it moves through the Southeastern United States.

States of emergency were in effect in Florida, Alabama and Georgia."

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-michael-path-evacuation-florida-storm-surge-weather-forecast-today-2018-live-updates/
 

LakeSuperiorView

(1,533 posts)
94. Aren't the areas that are going to be hit mostly red?
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 12:17 AM
Oct 2018

Shouldn't the talebangelists be saying that gawd is punishing them?

TexasTowelie

(110,971 posts)
104. Did the con say that in terms of water that this is supposed to be the wettest?
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 07:08 AM
Oct 2018

His memory can't recall what he said when Florence came through.a few weeks ago.

wishstar

(5,264 posts)
106. As of 7:45 is now 145 mph and down to 933 mb, so very deadly
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 07:46 AM
Oct 2018

Also predicting 13 foot storm surge across cone area

womanofthehills

(8,547 posts)
113. "I'm not seeing the level of traffic on the roadways that I would expect" - Sheriff Ford said
Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:27 AM
Oct 2018

(Another official on another news site said lots of rural people will not leave)

“Don’t think that you can ride this out if you’re in a low-lying area,” Nelson said on CNN.

But some officials were worried by what they weren’t seeing — a rush of evacuees.

“I am not seeing the level of traffic on the roadways that I would expect when we’ve called for the evacuation of 75 percent of this county,” Bay County Sheriff Tommy Ford said.

In the dangerously exposed coastal town of Apalachicola, population 2,500, Sally Crown planned to go home and hunker down with her two dogs.

“We’ve been through this before,” she said. “This might be really bad and serious. But in my experience, it’s always blown way out of proportion.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-michael-florida-panhandle_us_5bbd8e4ce4b01470d056c6fb
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