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Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:04 PM

Holy Shit - they're saying Cat3 Hurricane Michael - and it's now Cat4 with 140mph winds

Last edited Wed Oct 10, 2018, 05:13 AM - Edit history (1)

This is getting serious

117 replies, 6834 views

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Reply Holy Shit - they're saying Cat3 Hurricane Michael - and it's now Cat4 with 140mph winds (Original post)
malaise Oct 2018 OP
Achilleaze Oct 2018 #1
TheBlackAdder Oct 2018 #26
malaise Oct 2018 #87
TheBlackAdder Oct 2018 #88
malaise Oct 2018 #90
NewsCenter28 Oct 2018 #40
Achilleaze Oct 2018 #47
Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #66
malaise Oct 2018 #97
Lars39 Oct 2018 #2
Ilsa Oct 2018 #3
Lars39 Oct 2018 #4
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #6
Lars39 Oct 2018 #8
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #10
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #11
Lars39 Oct 2018 #25
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #36
Lars39 Oct 2018 #37
aikoaiko Oct 2018 #102
Separation Oct 2018 #46
Lars39 Oct 2018 #48
YessirAtsaFact Oct 2018 #5
malaise Oct 2018 #7
Lars39 Oct 2018 #9
malaise Oct 2018 #12
csziggy Oct 2018 #15
Lars39 Oct 2018 #16
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #38
csziggy Oct 2018 #41
DrDan Oct 2018 #18
Lars39 Oct 2018 #19
DrDan Oct 2018 #22
Lars39 Oct 2018 #23
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #39
csziggy Oct 2018 #51
DrDan Oct 2018 #60
royable Oct 2018 #54
malaise Oct 2018 #115
DrDan Oct 2018 #116
malaise Oct 2018 #117
Baclava Oct 2018 #13
spanone Oct 2018 #14
Grammy23 Oct 2018 #17
Phoenix61 Oct 2018 #80
Hortensis Oct 2018 #84
The Blue Flower Oct 2018 #20
malaise Oct 2018 #44
csziggy Oct 2018 #52
Hortensis Oct 2018 #85
csziggy Oct 2018 #93
Hortensis Oct 2018 #100
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #21
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #24
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2018 #42
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #53
Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #56
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #61
Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #91
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #92
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #57
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #62
Blue_true Oct 2018 #32
malaise Oct 2018 #43
Blue_true Oct 2018 #45
malaise Oct 2018 #98
minoan Oct 2018 #27
mcar Oct 2018 #29
MOMFUDSKI Oct 2018 #82
malaise Oct 2018 #31
mcar Oct 2018 #28
malaise Oct 2018 #30
mcar Oct 2018 #34
Blue_true Oct 2018 #33
mcar Oct 2018 #35
Cetacea Oct 2018 #49
malaise Oct 2018 #59
flying-skeleton Oct 2018 #50
malaise Oct 2018 #55
Tree-Hugger Oct 2018 #58
malaise Oct 2018 #63
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #65
workinclasszero Oct 2018 #77
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #64
malaise Oct 2018 #67
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #68
Baclava Oct 2018 #69
BumRushDaShow Oct 2018 #70
Haynx Oct 2018 #71
malaise Oct 2018 #74
sarcasmo Oct 2018 #72
malaise Oct 2018 #73
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #75
malaise Oct 2018 #76
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #78
malaise Oct 2018 #83
JCMach1 Oct 2018 #79
malaise Oct 2018 #81
malaise Oct 2018 #103
JCMach1 Oct 2018 #114
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #86
malaise Oct 2018 #89
malaise Oct 2018 #96
Scurrilous Oct 2018 #99
malaise Oct 2018 #101
LakeSuperiorView Oct 2018 #94
malaise Oct 2018 #95
TexasTowelie Oct 2018 #104
malaise Oct 2018 #105
wishstar Oct 2018 #106
Hortensis Oct 2018 #107
malaise Oct 2018 #110
Hortensis Oct 2018 #112
superpatriotman Oct 2018 #108
malaise Oct 2018 #111
DrDan Oct 2018 #109
womanofthehills Oct 2018 #113

Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:09 PM

1. "Fake lib news. It's all OK. I'm in charge. Believe me. Trust me." - Dirty Donny* (R)

* aka republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

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Response to Achilleaze (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:24 PM

26. How could there be such a bad storm coming? I look outside and it's sunny and clear.

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Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #26)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:56 PM

87. Still?

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Response to malaise (Reply #87)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:58 PM

88. Oh, I'm in NJ :-D

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Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #88)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 06:12 PM

90. I knew you were joking

but we both know there are folks who think that way

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Response to Achilleaze (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:12 PM

40. This will help Rick Scott sadly

In his deadlocked senate race. I’m praying it is nowhere near as bad as feared.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Reply #40)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:26 PM

47. Storm gonna scuzzy up the red tide, of toxic big ag republicorp origin

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Reply #40)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 09:26 PM

66. I was sicking watching local TV this afternoon in Miami

Rick Scott was wearing a NAVY hat and matter of factly telling anyone in the panhandle how to proceed. He was terrible at this type of thing early in his years as governor but now he has a relaxed effective delivery with proper emphasis, and it fools many people into believing he gives a damn

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Response to Achilleaze (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 05:17 AM

97. You know Don the Con is really bad luck

Another major hurricane approaches

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:11 PM

2. Malaise...new to this

Where are you seeing Cat3?
Are you translating wind speeds?

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:14 PM

3. It's developing much faster than expected.

It wasn't supposed to be a hurricane until much later today. They revised the estimate from high Cat 2 to Cat 3.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:15 PM

4. Thanks!

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:22 PM

6. Plus it's got some really warm water that it is going to traverse

before it gets to Florida so it will probably explode. Things to look out for at this point though is how it interacts with land (cone is showing it side-swiping Cuba) and what that does to the circulation... as well as what kind of wind shear (if any) happens once it is in the Gulf.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:25 PM

8. So many variables

We’re leaning hard on cancelling our vacation to Top Sail Preserve State Park.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:37 PM

10. Are they even open? I thought they (and on either side) got hit pretty hard from Florence



My concern is how much rain this could generate once it gets on land because rivers are still running high in the Carolinas and this will just exasperate it.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:38 PM

11. It's right in the path of the storm.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:19 PM

25. I hope the area isn't hit hard

That is one of the places the sea turtles go to hatch their eggs.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #25)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:41 PM

36. When is hatching time?


I have been gratified to see stories of beach volunteers who rescue the exposed eggs, and hatchlings, after storms.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #36)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:58 PM

37. Not sure.

I thought it was in the summer. The dunes there are beautiful.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #36)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:35 AM

102. Oct is really the end of the season.

Most are hatched by now but a few late nests might still be there.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:22 PM

46. Are you talking about Top Sail in North Carolina?

If so, that was my wife and I's favorite place to go while I was in the Marine Corps and stationed there. There was a little restaurant that had a pier that went over the water and we would go there every weekend for the French Onion soup. Then hurricane Bertha came through and totally destroyed it. Nobody was allowed to rebuild there after that storm.

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Response to Separation (Reply #46)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:39 PM

48. No, the one in Santa Rosa Beach FL.

Sounds like a good memory though.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:20 PM

5. National Hurricane Center prediction

Michael will become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Sustained winds of 110 mph or more.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:25 PM

7. NOAA, Noon news on all Florida stations and here's the WashingtonPost

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081438.shtml


https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/08/michael-strengthens-hurricane-is-forecast-make-landfall-florida-dangerous-category-midweek/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e44637619768

Capital Weather Gang
Michael strengthens to a hurricane and is forecast to make landfall in Florida as a ‘dangerous’ Category 3 midweek

Hurricane Michael is strengthening as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and Florida is its target. The storm is expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. It will probably be the area’s strongest hurricane in 13 years.

“Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Monday.

The storm surge, which is the rise of ocean water at the coast above normally dry land, could reach at least 8 to 12 feet, inundating roads, homes and businesses at the coast.

In addition, “heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday,” the Hurricane Center warned.

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Response to malaise (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:28 PM

9. Thank you!

Looks like we *were* going to Top Sail Preserve State Park this weekend.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:40 PM

12. Stay safe

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:33 PM

15. Yeah, this is not a good time to visit the coast of the Florida Panhandle

We're outside of Tallahassee but are supposed to board a ship in Tampa on Thursday. Originally we were driving down Wednesday but we're leaving tomorrow ahead of the winds. We'll still have wind and rain but will be inland and should not get into any serious bands.

Our major worry is gas - lots of lines and some stations are running out. My husband was supposed to fill up last Friday but didn't. He's headed to Costco right now to try to fill his car for the drive down.

Save your trip to the sugar sands of the Panhandle or a few weeks.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:39 PM

16. Thanks for the information!

I really appreciate the added insight, csziggy.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:58 PM

38. Mr. Dixie didn't understand my insistence that we keep 1/2 tank in the car at all times.


It stems from 1995 ( when I was still single) Hurricane Opal was supposed to just graze our area, but in the middle of the night she turned.
The water was ankle deep when I woke up and fled my lil house in the woods, luckily I had enough gas to get out of the area.

I learned the definition of Straight line winds when I returned 3 days later to see 4 trees had dropped on that house.

Never ever take hurricane forecasts for granted.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #38)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:14 PM

41. 'sWhat kills me is that my husband's Prius was already warning about low gas

When he headed home LAST week!

At least he didn't have much problem filling it today. Costco had lines but plenty of gas.

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:52 PM

18. Mike (from Mike's Weather Page) was predicting a Cat 3 yesterday based on barometric pressure

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Response to DrDan (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:01 PM

19. Oh ok. Thanks DrDan!

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Response to Lars39 (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:37 PM

22. Here is the Saffir-Simpson scale

……………………..Wind km/hr...….Pressure (mb)
Category 5...…….>250...……………<920
Category 4......210-250...………..920-944
Category 3......179-210......…...945-964
Category 2......155-178......…...965-979
Category 1......120-155...………….≥ 980

Mike, from Mike's Weather Page yesterday used this scale with the projected barometric pressure of 950 mb and predicted a cat-3.

Take a look at his page on facebook. He goes live twice a day on facebook during hurricane season. I like him because he is not linked to a single model but discusses all of them.

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Response to DrDan (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:56 PM

23. Thanks! That's good info

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Response to DrDan (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:06 PM

39. That did not look right to me, so I checked.

this is the scale as we have come to know it down here in hurricane country:



I got this from Wiki, same scale is on the NOAA site:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:00 PM

51. The chart DrDan posted was in kilometers per hour

We're used to seeing it in miles per hour. I had to look twice to realize the difference.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #51)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:43 PM

60. exactly - thanks - I was focussed on the barometric pressure and did not convert wind speeds

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #39)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:18 PM

54. That chart uses "Catastrophic" for both cat 4 and 5. Shouldn't cat 5 be "Trump admin"? n/t

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Response to DrDan (Reply #18)

Fri Oct 12, 2018, 04:45 PM

115. So how did we know this on Monday but not the people warning folks to move?

Last edited Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:09 PM - Edit history (1)

I accept that the Cat4 was overnight but we were discussing Cat3 since Monday and you did mention Cat4 from a reference.

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Response to malaise (Reply #115)

Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:07 PM

116. Mike was warning us of this storm on Oct 2 - and he was denigrating the media

for downplaying it - particularly the media in the Panama City area.. They were speaking of "tropical conditions". I heard him blasting them for being irresponsible in storm reporting - telling folks not to worry - it's not a big deal.

And what do we get - a strong strong cat 4. 3rd worst storm ever. Worst to ever hit Florida gulf.

Mike pays infinitely more attention to the details than our weather folks do.

Gonna get me one of his drunk-donkey t-shirts in support of his reporting.





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Response to DrDan (Reply #116)

Fri Oct 12, 2018, 06:10 PM

117. Yep

I'd like to see him on Anderson Cooper

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:47 PM

13. Supposed to make landfall mid-morning on Wednesday! Make your preparations now!

Right now still looking like east of Panama City towards Apalachicola






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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:49 PM

14. K&R...

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:51 PM

17. We left home (Pensacola) on Sat. To meet up


With my niece and her husband and will fly to France from Boston tomorrow. Did very little prep before we left due to running out of time and this storm was a bit of a surprise to build up so quickly. We are on the edge of the cone so unless something really weird happens, we should be fine. I have had to talk my husband down from the trees as he has worried incessantly since no storm path is certain until it makes landfall. I reminded him if we were home, we would do just a few more things like take down our bird feeders and buy a few things for our hurricane stash. As it is, we will be getting on a River Cruise and will be looking at the storm from 4500 miles away.

I hope Michael is not as bad as they suggest he may be and surely hope that the Carolinas get a break on the rain. Saw Rick Scott this a.m. trying to look prepared, etc. I hope he goes down in flames on Election Day!

Be safe to all those in the path of the storm! Heed the warnings!

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Response to Grammy23 (Reply #17)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:10 PM

80. I've always wanted to do a river cruise

Please post about it when you return. I'm concerned about the storm. Cat 2's are just a big, fat pain in the tush. Cat 3's make me nervous. I'm planning on heading to a friend's house 40 miles inland.

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Response to Grammy23 (Reply #17)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:14 PM

84. :) Serenely watching medieval towns and castles pass by

from deck chairs and dining tables on one of the great rivers of Europe sounds about as different from a hurricane as you can get. Water the only common denominator. Have to remember that next time we need to flee a hurricane.

Have a lovely time.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:09 PM

20. I went out to run errands, thinking I could fill up my tank when I was done

The grocery stores are packed. By the time I was ready to get gas an hour later, the lines to the gas stations were out to the streets (Tallahassee). I figure people are doing it today because they're off work for Columbus Day. We still have until tomorrow night.

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Response to The Blue Flower (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:18 PM

44. It will only get worse

Batten down.

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Response to The Blue Flower (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:04 PM

52. A frined's daughter saw a fist fight over gas

In Pensacola! That's nuts!

My husband had to go to Publix to pick up stuff for our cruise - there were no carts at all in the parking lot or in the front of the store.

And we were just worried about using up stuff in the fridge before we leave for our trip.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #52)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:25 PM

85. Oh, my. We have a place west of Ocala, and friends

have warned us that unprepared folk in the mass evacuations heading north from south Florida tend to start running out of gas around Ocala-Gainesville. They thought we should know we needed to prep ahead even though expecting to stay comfortably at home.

That direction's not your concern this time, of course. Hope all goes well and you have a very ice time.

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #85)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 11:19 PM

93. We're in Tampa tonight

Filled up with gas south of Gainesville. No lines but every pump space taken. Traffic wasn't too bad. Only bad rain was right where the turnpike left I-75 - absolutely opaque down pour for just those few miles.

Now the Weather Channel is saying Cat 4! If no power at home we can stay down here after the cruise. Mom's house is being tented this weekend but we could stay there once they clear it. I hope our old cat will be okay. Last storm he stayed cuddled up with me. He has a cat door so can get inside but will be alone.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #93)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:12 AM

100. Still cat 4 this morning. We've always left our cats at home,

knowing boarding them out would be a serious trauma in itself. Little danger from the hurricane itself, at least. He'll be snug inside and have too much sense to go out.

Saw the tide is especially high in Tampa. Wonderful. We have an old MH on the water there, so it'll be up over the old sea wall already. Sigh.

Imagine you'll be heading for your ship. Hope the food's great.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 02:28 PM

21. The wind is already picking up in Miami & we're nowhere near the center.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:17 PM

24. I'm surprised how it is pushing clouds up into FL like that.

This is a cool site posted here alot - https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-86.19,21.06,1106

All kinds of things spinning out in the oceans.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #24)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:15 PM

42. I was wondering why we were getting east wind with rain gusts.


Those lovely wind graphics explain it all.
and when I spun the globe, 2 cyclones ...or typhoons??...on either side of India, and one between Hawaii and Wes Coast.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #42)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:14 PM

53. There is a big high over northern Maine

and coupled with one out in the Atlantic, just west of where TS Leslie is spinning, they are shunting an easterly flow (due to their clockwise circulation) into the east coast. We have been socked in with fog/mist/low stratus clouds all day here in Philly, due to the easterly flow off the ocean.

And yup, good ole Mother Earth is continually spinning up storms all over the place to try to bring the atmosphere into equilibrium - 24/7/365.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #53)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:19 PM

56. Hello neighbor

And fellow weather enthusiast?
I'm a Summer-lovin' gal, but I am thoroughly over the humidity this year.

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Response to Tree-Hugger (Reply #56)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:48 PM

61. Been a weather lover since the ripe old age of 8.



(which will be almost 49 years in a few months )

Between here and a garden forum, I also post on a weather forum.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #61)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 07:15 PM

91. Same

I have been obsessed with weather since I was a little kid. I'm just a few years younger than you.
I keep forgetting DU has a weather forum.

You're probably already on it, but there is a great local site called PhillyWx that rocks.

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Response to Tree-Hugger (Reply #91)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 08:14 PM

92. LOL I didn't even know there was a weather forum here.



Looks like it started around 2012. Ha! No I haven't been in there. I post on American Weather forum, a/k/a AmericanWx (used to be called Eastern Weather a/k/a EasternWx). I remember when a bunch of folks left the Philly Region subforum and setup PhillyWx (including a number of the Mt. Holly mets). I do go over there every once in awhile but at this point I am doing too many forums and trying to do chores too so it's getting out of hand! I also post on gardenweb too and I have seen a bunch of longtime posters there who are longtime posters here on DU.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #24)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:21 PM

57. Hypnotic!

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #57)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:50 PM

62. Another cool site is this

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;y=23.0393;x=-78.4639;z=5;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

Looks like some of the convection over western Cuba is probably coming from Michael.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:20 PM

32. Calm but cloudy in Marion County. Unless it shifts East, it should not affect us much. nt

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #32)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:15 PM

43. Be careful

Please

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Response to malaise (Reply #43)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:22 PM

45. I should be fine.

The tracking map that you posted shows the south-western tip of Marion County getting some high wind. I live in the north-east section near eastern Alachua County. Marion County is one of the biggest counties in the state in terms of landmass, so I sit well out of the rough stuff. We did get some rain a few minutes ago, but no wind.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #21)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 05:36 AM

98. Stay safe

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:24 PM

27. I am in Tallahassee

Looks like the coastal areas are going to be hit hard. We will get 65-75 mph sustained winds and a lot of rain as things stand now. We are all battened down for the duration. Got chocolate cake....

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Response to minoan (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:30 PM

29. Stay safe

I was supposed to see Mayor Gillum in The Villages on Saturday but I'm expecting he'll cancel.

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Response to mcar (Reply #29)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:35 PM

82. villages

Hi mcar - Long time lurker with a few posts some years back. Just wondering if you live in The Villages. If so, tell me what it is like being a Dem there. Am considering a move there from Treasure Island in Florida. Edumacate me . . . .

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Response to minoan (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:06 PM

31. Don't think you'll get the worst of it

but it will be bad - storm surge. Stay safe

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:29 PM

28. It's moving fast and taking an Eastward turn I don't like

As it brings it closer to me.

We're on TS watch right now.

Hubby called and said school has been cancelled in the district Tues and Wed as they are needed as shelters for those on the West coast. We live about 25 miles inland.

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Response to mcar (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 04:59 PM

30. It's picked up speed from 7mph to 9mph

That's not bad news
Stay safe.

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Response to malaise (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:30 PM

34. Thanks malaise

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Response to mcar (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:24 PM

33. You are on the Gulf coast. Look like trouble for you.

Stay safe.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 05:30 PM

35. Thanks Blue_true

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:46 PM

49. It's still very hot in the Gulf

A three doesn't surprise me and its fortunate its a fast mover.

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Response to Cetacea (Reply #49)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:26 PM

59. Michael is moving fast - now 12mph

so the rain part won't sit there for days or hours

That's good news

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 06:51 PM

50. Don't worry ....

Dear Republican Voters:
Don't worry.
FL Governor just released a statement:
CLIMATE CHANGE IS A HOAX.
So see. Nothing to worry right?
Just like Trump said !!
So stay out of take a walk in the park or on the beach & enjoy the view and fresh air.

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Response to flying-skeleton (Reply #50)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 07:26 PM

55. It's amazing how many of his supporters are heading inland

They should follow your advice.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:23 PM

58. Here's a great website

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

It's a great site with dozens of active models so you can track storms. He provides up to date reconnaissance information.

Levi also does a nightly video update whenever there is an active Tropical Storm or Hurricane impacting the U.S. He is extremely knowledgeable and very calm and thorough in his presentations.

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Response to Tree-Hugger (Reply #58)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 08:57 PM

63. Thanks

Storm surge will be serious but the faster this moves (and it's now moving at 12mph) the better. That will limit the flooding.
And that's really good news.

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Response to Tree-Hugger (Reply #58)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 09:08 PM

65. Excellent info.

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Response to Tree-Hugger (Reply #58)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 12:20 PM

77. Great site

 

Thanks for the link

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 09:06 PM

64. Recent image as we lost daylight (vis - ir)



It doesn't really have much if any of an eye, although it is trying to form it. Probably got disrupted over western Cuba.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #64)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 07:32 AM

67. It's getting more organized

and it looks like Michael is heading for Atlanta as a tropical storm

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Response to malaise (Reply #67)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 07:56 AM

68. It's trying to form and stablize an eye.

But once that happens, it will be off to the races.

Latest advisory just in (summary of it) has it now at 100 mph -


000
WTNT34 KNHC 091147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/090857.shtml?


The 8 am ET track is similar to the below -



TEXT
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane Michael is moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Here are the 4 am CDT October 9th Key Messages on Hurricane #Michael.
5:24 AM - Oct 9, 2018






TEXT
NHC director Ken Graham will provide a Facebook Live broadcast at 8:15 a.m. EDT (7:15 a.m. CDT) regarding Hurricane #Michael http://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC @NOAA @NWS @NWSWPC #HurricanePrep
7:47 AM - Oct 9, 2018

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:43 AM

69. Zeroing in on Panama City Beach

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:44 AM

70. Michael now a Cat 2 as of 8am ET update

Also the NHC Storm Surge folks just tweeted this out about 20 minutes ago -



TEXT

NHC_Surge

@NHC_Surge

Water levels will rise well in advance of the arrival of #Michael. It's essential that residents within the storm surge warning area finish preparations to protect life and property today.
9:17 AM - Oct 9, 2018


Because there is a new moon, the tides are already enhanced.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:50 AM

71. Scary

 

Bigger than Florence

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Response to Haynx (Reply #71)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:56 AM

74. Now 110mph

The big difference here is that Florence stalled and flooded the Carolinas
This will be storm surge, wind and rain, but, at 12mph flooding from rain won't be a major problem.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 09:50 AM

72. Was heading for the condo next week, now fingers crossed it's still standing.

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Response to sarcasmo (Reply #72)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:09 AM

73. Good luck

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 11:37 AM

75. ...

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #75)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 11:55 AM

76. Moving north now

Not good news for Tallahassee

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Response to malaise (Reply #76)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 12:24 PM

78. My friend's daughter drove home from FSU last night.

Everything is shutting down for the rest of the week. Time to GTFO.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #78)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:00 PM

83. Nmichael now 120mph 5.00pm update

This is serious

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 12:25 PM

79. I just heard the words, possible 4, from a forecaster

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #79)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:14 PM

81. The water is hot but I'm not sure there's enough time

Hope I'm right

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #79)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:59 AM

103. He was right

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Response to malaise (Reply #103)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 10:44 AM

114. 24k stuck in Panama City Beach area with no way out

NG

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:34 PM

86. Hurricane Michael's Storm Surge Will Likely Erode 75 Percent of Florida's Gulf Coast Beaches

<snip>



Panama City Beach

"Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 3 storm and is very likely to cause erosion at the base of sand dunes of three-quarters of the beaches along the panhandle and flood more than a quarter of its dunes, causing flooding behind protective dune lines, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

If Michael continues to intensify and stay on the National Hurricane Center's forecasted path, storm surge impacts east of the hurricane's eye are expected to be most severe, where storm surge and waves could bring water levels to rise as high as 16 to 20 feet, the USGS predicts.

In the open Gulf of Mexico, wave heights are expected to hit as high as 40 feet, said Kara Doran, the research oceanographer for the USGS. Doran leads the agency's Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team in St. Petersburg, Florida.

“As the storm approaches the coast, the shallow seabed will reduce that wave height,” said Dorn. “But water levels in some parts of the Northeast Florida coast will still be high enough to overwhelm the dunes, which are relatively low and narrow.”

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-10-09-michael-storm-surge-erode-florida-beaches


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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #86)

Tue Oct 9, 2018, 05:59 PM

89. Those high rise hotels will also face a serious test

and the wind will be stronger at the higher levels.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #86)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 05:14 AM

96. 140mph is catastrophic

Don the Con is bad luck

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Response to malaise (Reply #96)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:02 AM

99. Yep.

Hurricane Michael becomes Category 4 brute, targets Florida Panhandle -- live updates

<snip>

"The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Hurricane Michael is packing even more punch: It strengthened into a Category 4 storm early Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. According to the NHC's latest advisory, Michael could produce a life-threatening storm surge as high as 13 feet and dump as much as a foot of rain in some places.

Weather officials say Michael has been drawing energy from warm Gulf of Mexico waters, with ocean temperatures in the mid-80s.

The NHC said Michael should make landfall midday Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle or Florida "Big Bend" area. The storm is then forecast to weaken as it moves through the Southeastern United States.

States of emergency were in effect in Florida, Alabama and Georgia."

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/hurricane-michael-path-evacuation-florida-storm-surge-weather-forecast-today-2018-live-updates/

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #99)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 06:30 AM

101. The worst side of Michael could devastate Apalachicola

Get out of the way folks

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 12:17 AM

94. Aren't the areas that are going to be hit mostly red?

 

Shouldn't the talebangelists be saying that gawd is punishing them?

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Response to LakeSuperiorView (Reply #94)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 12:23 AM

95. Yes

And he's sure coming for them since the Con took office. This is the fifth major hurricane.

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Response to malaise (Reply #95)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 07:08 AM

104. Did the con say that in terms of water that this is supposed to be the wettest?

His memory can't recall what he said when Florence came through.a few weeks ago.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #104)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 07:09 AM

105. LOL

Not yet

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 07:46 AM

106. As of 7:45 is now 145 mph and down to 933 mb, so very deadly

Also predicting 13 foot storm surge across cone area

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 08:03 AM

107. 145 mph, still strengthening. Only 10 mph below a Cat 5 now.

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #107)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 08:36 AM

110. Scary indeed

Climate change anyone?

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Response to malaise (Reply #110)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:18 AM

112. I'm getting tired of climate change,

but at least that libtard global warming lie isn't true.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 08:09 AM

108. Kick

Cat 4 moving fast. Lots of wetness in the way of water.

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Response to superpatriotman (Reply #108)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 08:50 AM

111. Well say one thing for Don the Con

He gets the 'bigliest' hurricane in recorded panhandle history.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 08:30 AM

109. 145 now - with hours more over the bathtub gulf

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:27 AM

113. "I'm not seeing the level of traffic on the roadways that I would expect" - Sheriff Ford said

(Another official on another news site said lots of rural people will not leave)

“Don’t think that you can ride this out if you’re in a low-lying area,” Nelson said on CNN.

But some officials were worried by what they weren’t seeing — a rush of evacuees.

“I am not seeing the level of traffic on the roadways that I would expect when we’ve called for the evacuation of 75 percent of this county,” Bay County Sheriff Tommy Ford said.

In the dangerously exposed coastal town of Apalachicola, population 2,500, Sally Crown planned to go home and hunker down with her two dogs.

“We’ve been through this before,” she said. “This might be really bad and serious. But in my experience, it’s always blown way out of proportion.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-michael-florida-panhandle_us_5bbd8e4ce4b01470d056c6fb

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