Just confirming that Rasmussen really sucks

[ProSense]

Just confirming that Rasmussen really sucks

by kos

Rasmussen, 6/12, likely voters:

Tommy Thompson (R) 52
Tammy Baldwin (D) 36

Rasmussen, 7/25, likely voters:

Tammy Baldwin (D) 48
Tommy Thompson (R) 41

No, Baldwin wasn't down by 16 a month ago, and no, the race hasn't shifted by 23 points in a single month, and no, Baldwin isn't up by seven today. PPP has it a 45-45 tie. Marquette University gives Thompson a small edge. Both of those pollsters have shown Baldwin closing a gap, but as is almost always the case in elections (particularly absent scandal or gaffe), the movement is gradual. This race is a toss-up.

- more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/30/1115124/-Just-confirming-that-Rasmussen-really-sucks

[reflection]

1. I like to send this link out to the Rasmussen heads I know

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

It really is damning to those who quote Rasmussen as gospel.

[ProSense]

2. Rasmussen is

factored into poll averages. It would be good to see the averages with and without Rasmussen.

[reflection]

3. RealClearPolitics

shows all of the polls side by side. More often than not, Rasmussen is the outlier. Not exactly what you wanted, which was a clean average that omits Rasmussen, but you can generally take any poll, omit the Rasmussen data point, and divide by n-1 to get the more accurate result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I'm sure you knew all that, but if it helps anyone else...