General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnother Special Election Upset Is a Possibility (AZ)
By Ed Kilgore
April 16, 2018
5:06 pm
... A new poll of district voters by Emerson College shows Democrat Hiral Tipirneni leading Republican state senator Debbie Lesko by a 46-45 margin.
The only two previous public polls of this race showed Lesko leading by double digits. But the early polling in Pennsylvanias 18th showed the Republican leading, too; it was Emerson College, as it happens, that first showed the Democratic winner Conor Lamb taking the lead.
Arizonas eighth, comprised of conservative suburbs to the north and west of Phoenix, went for Trump in 2016 by a 21 percent margin, compared to Pennsylvanias 18th districts 20 points. Its Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index is R+13 (13 points more Republican than the national average); the 18th was R+11. And theres one respect in which the Arizona district is significantly less open to a Democratic candidate than was the district won by Conor Lamb: Republicans have a 17-point advantage in party registration in Arizonas eighth, while Democrats held a 6-point advantage in the Pennsylvania district ...
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/04/new-az-poll-shows-another-special-election-upset-is-possible.html
struggle4progress
(118,379 posts)with other recent polling showing Lesko winning by double-digit margins. The latest public poll on Friday from OH Predictive Insights and ABC 15 Arizona found Lesko leading by 10 points, 53 to 43 percent ...
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/383340-poll-arizona-special-election-in-dead-heat
marybourg
(12,648 posts)But given the history, not likely. I've lived in the district for 25 years. I've never such enthusiasm for a Dem AND such apathy for a Publican. So, given enough Dem turnout, it' possible.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)frequents the area. This is ground Zero for the Militia Movement. Confederate,Gadsden,and 3%er flags flying where ever you go. This will be a interesting vote to say the least.
marybourg
(12,648 posts)in my very reddest - voting part of the district, except for 1 Confederate flag many years ago. Other neighborhoods may be different, of course.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)marybourg
(12,648 posts)northwests. Do you mean Wittman? Or New River?
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)referring to AZ 4. Your District is much more Civilized. In fact,you all have modern conveniences. Not so much for AZ 4.
Nac Mac Feegle
(972 posts)There's a LOT of traditionally hard -R voters: Sun City, Litchfield Park and Luke AFB, but the creeping suburbs and the Toxic Trump effect may be enough to swing it.
I won't be surprised either way. Relieved if Tirpineni wins, but not surprised if she doesn't. I've got 25+ years in the district; Trent (my copy of The Handmaids' Tale is sticky) Franks has had the same cheesy signs showing pictures of babies and balloons since forever. Never any different. That seems to me that he doesn't really have any concept of changing anything. The only time he tries anything different is some signs with his own picture. He has an eminently punchable face, somewhat resembling Ted Cruz.
Word is that he was fairly sane a long time ago, but then he got into politics with the Evan Mecham regime, and played that into a congressional seat. A real fan of Limbaugh from way back, too. Family money from oil / fuel industry (distribution?).