Pseudoscience on Trial: The Spectacular Fall of President Trumps Voter Fraud Thesis

[Gothmog]

I have been following the ACLU v. Kobach trial. It was a great soap opera. Kobach is a bad trial attorney and made a fool of himself. More importantly, Kobach put the issue of the existence of widespread voter fraud on trial and ended up giving the ACLU a chance to prove that there is no such voter fraud. This article made me smile https://blog.ucsusa.org/michael-latner/pseudoscience-on-trial-the-spectacular-fall-of-president-trumps-voter-fraud-thesis

The voter fraud thesis fell apart in truly spectacular fashion under examination, and could very well result in the overturning of the law, the denial of one witness as an “expert” in future testimony, and even a finding that Mr. Kobach be held in contempt of court. To understand how things could have possibly gone so badly for Mr. Kobach, consider some the highlights of the trial, wherein the “science” used to claim that voter fraud is rampant dissolves before our eyes, much like the Kobach Commission:

Hans Von Spakovsky, a fellow member of the Kobach Commission, had to acknowledge early on that his research on voter fraud has not been subjected to peer review, and further acknowledged that all of his inferences about voter fraud in Kansas were based on a spreadsheet provided by Mr. Kobach.
Regarding the frequent comment that known accounts of voter fraud are “just the tip of the iceberg,” lead counsel for plaintiffs Dale Ho asked “You don’t have any estimate of the size of the iceberg, is that right Mr. Von Spakovsky?” Von Spakovsky: “That’s correct.”
Cross-examination also revealed that Von Spakovsky’s submitted court report contained incomplete information that made it possible for him to inflate estimates of non-citizen registration. Subsequently, plaintiffs asked Judge Julie Robinson to make a finding that Von Spakovsky is not an objective expert, having offered incomplete and misleading testimony.

While I hope that the judge finds Kobach in contempt and sanction him, the more important development that came out in this trial is that the claims of widespread voter fraud are false and that the key experts cited by the GOP fell apart under cross-examination by the ACLU

[Hermit-The-Prog]

1. how many thousands of voters?

In Kansas alone, this fool's pseudoscience has disenfranchised about 33,000 voters. His work has been the basis of voter suppression in multiple red states. Kobach's humiliation means more voters who were previously, illegitimately turned away from polls may get to vote now.

We need all hands on deck!


Link to Gothmog's previous post on this, for more background:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210350534

[Gothmog]

2. In Texas 600,000 registered voters and 1.2 million eligible voters were affected

In the Texas voter id trial, the state of Texas had no evidence of the type of fraud that would be prevented by voter id laws. Voter id laws only stop one form of fraud which is in person voter impersonation.

The evidence in this trial showed that 600,000 registered voters and 1.2 million eligible voters lacked the ids required. The State of Texas issues 56+ forms of id and the GOP picked the forms that poor people were not likely to have. In 2014, voter turnout out dropped to 33% from 39% in 2010. Wendy Davis (the Texas Dem. candidate for Governor) got almost 300,000 less voters compared to Bill White who was the 2010 candidate. In 2014, Greg Abbott got about 10,000 more votes compared to Rick Perry who was the candidate in 2010.

In Kansas, approximately 35,000 voters were on the suspense list and not allowed to vote due to Kobach citizenship requirement. Kobach was attempting to get Trump to agree to amend the motor voter law so that other states could adopt Kobach's system of voter suppression. That was evidently going to be one of the recommendations of trump's bogus voter suppression commission until that joke of a commission fell apart.

The GOP is good at suppressing the vote. Former CJ Rehnquist got his start in GOP politics as a member of a GOP goon squad who challenge non-white voters in Arizona. http://peoplesguidetomaricopa.blogspot.com/2011/05/operation-eagle-eye-mary-bethune.html

During the 1964 Presidential Election, at Mary Bethune Elementary School in Phoenix, Arizona, a young lawyer named William Rehnquist led Operation Eagle Eye; a questionable and illegal voter suppression operation of the Republican Party. Rehnquist aggressively interrogated potential minority voters with questions about their residence and how long they had lived there. Rehnquist even proceeded to ask voters to interpret specific passages in the Constitution, and if they were unable to do so, were denied access to the polls. This measure taken by the G.O.P (Republican Party) alienated some of its own members who felt uncomfortable with some of the strategies led by Rehnquist and his Operation Eagle Eye cronies. (Roddy, “Just Our Bill”).

Voter suppression has been a major part of the GOP game plan for a long time. Here is the founder of ALEC and the Heritage Foundation

This trial helped to discredit the lies used by the GOP to justify these voter suppression tactics

[Hermit-The-Prog]

3. on the other side...

The battle is to end GOP voter suppression and get more eligible voters registered. Here's a bit of good news on the voter registration prong:

All of a Sudden, Voting Rights Are Expanding Across the Country

Washington state is leading the pushback against national moves to curtail ballot access.

Ari BermanMar. 19, 2018

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee signed a sweeping election reform package on Monday that will make his state one of the leaders in the country in expanding voting rights. The “Access to Democracy” bills passed by Washington’s Legislature include automatic voter registration, Election Day registration, pre-registration for 16- and 17-year-olds, and a state version of the national Voting Rights Act.

Washington becomes the second state after California to have all four of these policies in place. “We want to have the highest participation rate of anywhere in the country,” says Spencer Olson, communications director for the WA Voting Justice Coalition, a network of groups that lobbied for the bills.

Washington is the 11th state to pass or implement automatic voter registration since 2015. It works like this: When voters obtain or renew a driver’s license or sign up for the state’s health insurance exchange, they will automatically be registered to vote once the state confirms their US citizenship, unless they opt out. The program will also be expanded to other social service agencies.

Oregon became the first state to implement automatic voter registration in 2016, with impressive results. More than 270,000 new voters were registered that way in 2016, and Oregon had the highest turnout increase of any state in the last presidential election. Registration among voters of color increased by 26 points. Currently, 1.3 million eligible voters in Washington—23 percent of the electorate—are not registered to vote. Voting rights advocates project that 90 percent of eligible voters will be registered under the state’s new system. These new registrants will then receive ballots in the mail under Washington’s vote-by-mail system.

Voters who are not registered automatically will be able to register on Election Day. Studies have shown that the 15 states with Election Day registration have seen voter turnout increase by as much as 10 percent. High school students who are 16 and 17 years old will also be able to pre-register at their schools so they can vote when they turn 18.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/all-of-a-sudden-voting-rights-are-expanding-across-the-country/

[Gothmog]

6. These are mainly in blue states

Voting is a fundamental right. The gop believe in restricting this right

[Hermit-The-Prog]

7. is there one page or article with a list?

All I've seen are piece-meal as efforts focus on a particular state's suppression. Is there a list somewhere showing each state and the probable number of voters turned away?

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. Brennan Center

Found this:

New Analysis: Voter Suppression Laws a Concern in 2018, Though Many States Looking to Expand Access
January 22, 2018
https://www.brennancenter.org/press-release/new-analysis-voter-suppression-laws-concern-2018-though-many-states-looking-expand

Which links to:

Voting Laws Roundup 2018

In 2018, changes to voting laws are again poised to play a major role in state legislative agendas.
February 22, 2018
https://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voting-laws-roundup-2018

As the year begins, voting legislation continues to be a significant subject of state legislators’ attention. As of February 13 – when we completed our latest round of legislative bill tracking – 44 states and Washington, D.C., had opened their regular legislative sessions. North Carolina’s legislature has met in a special session.[1]

This year so far, legislators have introduced at least 28 bills restricting access in 14 states.[2] In addition, 35 restrictive bills in 14 states carried over from last year’s sessions.[3] In total, there are 63 restrictive bills that have been introduced or carried over in 24 states. Notably, New Hampshire state legislators continue to attempt to disenfranchise student voters. The restrictive bills introduced this year represent a continuation of a push to restrict access to the franchise that we have been tracking since 2010.

At the same time, we are seeing a significant push to expand access to the franchise. Indeed, every state legislature that has introduced restrictive bills in 2018 has also introduced expansive bills. Legislators have introduced at least 206 bills expanding access to the franchise in 30 states.[4] In addition, 262 expansive bills in 23 states and Washington, D.C. carried over from last year’s sessions. [5] In total, there are 468 expansive bills that have been introduced or carried over in 39 states. Virginia accounts for a significant portion of the expansive bills introduced in 2018, as legislators newly empowered by last year’s state elections seek to enact a broad-based, pro-voter agenda.

PDF of analysis: https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/2.22.18_Voting_Laws_Roundup_2018.pdf

[Gothmog]

9. I know Michael Li at the Brennan Center

He is a math whiz and an attorney. Michael had the best legal blog on Texas election law untin he was hired to go to New York and go work for the Brennan Center

[lostnfound]

4. Wisconsin also had major suppression, many sad stories.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-voter-id-law-turned-voters-estimate/

This man spent $200 and made 7 trips to state offices but still was unable to vote because it showed Junior as his middle name:

https://www.thenation.com/article/a-black-man-brought-3-forms-of-id-to-the-polls-in-wisconsin-he-still-couldnt-vote/

[Hermit-The-Prog]

5. that is evil

From the CBS story you linked:

By one estimate, 300,000 eligible voters in the state lacked valid photo IDs heading into the election; it is unknown how many people did not vote because they didn't have proper identification. But it is not hard to find the Navy veteran whose out-of-state driver's license did not suffice, or the dying woman whose license had expired, or the recent graduate whose student ID was deficient -- or Harris, who at 66 made her way to her polling place despite chronic lung disease and a torn ligament in her knee.

She had lost her driver's license just before Election Day. Aware of the new law, she brought her Social Security and Medicare cards as well as a county-issued bus pass that displayed her photo.

Not good enough. She was turned away.

[Gothmog]

10. The Clinton campaign tried to send me to Wisconsin

Last edited Sat Mar 24, 2018, 07:25 PM - Edit history (1)

I had too much to do in Texas

[Gothmog]

13. This will make you smile

Link to tweet

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. yay! roast the rat!

Maybe we could convince Judge Robinson that a propane fired grill would not be cruel and unusual punishment for a rat like Kobach. Just lightly charred, both sides, of course.

[brer cat]

11. We always knew this was pure hogwash,

but it's very nice to see it officially ruled that way.

[Gothmog]

12. Kobach's Behavior During Recent Trial Prompts Ethics Complaint From Overland Park Lawyer

This will be fun to watch. I guess that Kobach can be disbarred and still run to be governor http://kcur.org/post/kobachs-behavior-during-recent-trial-prompts-ethics-complaint-overland-park-lawyer#stream/0

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach committed ethical violations during the just-completed trial over the state’s voter registration law, a Kansas immigration lawyer alleges in a bar complaint.

Matthew Hoppock, who practices in Overland Park, said he was duty-bound to file the complaint as an officer of the court.

“I have to,” he told KCUR. “Any licensed attorney in Kansas who thinks another attorney has broken the rules is required to."....

Although he declined to spell out the contents of his bar complaint, Hoppock’s tweets made clear he believes Kobach violated at least four of the Kansas Rules of Professional Conduct, the canons governing attorney behavior:

By acting as an attorney and serving as a fact witness in the same case, Kobach violated the rule that bars lawyers from acting as advocates at a trial in which they themselves are witnesses.
Because U.S. District Judge Julie Robinson found before the trial that Kobach had made “patently misleading representations to the court,” Kobach violated the rule prohibiting attorneys from knowingly making false statements to the court.
By missing filing deadlines, Kobach violated the rule requiring attorneys to “act with reasonable diligence and promptness in representing a client.”
Because he was repeatedly chastised by the judge for running afoul of evidentiary rules during the trial, Kobach violated the rule requiring attorneys to “provide competent representation to a client.

[Gothmog]

15. Kobach will not defend himself on appeal

Link to tweet