Why the Repubs will not suffer because of the tax bill

[jg10003]

The negative effects of this bill will not be realized for seven to nine years. In the short term (2 years) most people will not see any change other than a very small reduction in their payroll tax.

When the economic crises occurs sometime between 2025 and 2027 there almost certainly will be a Democrat in the White House, and probably a Democratic controlled congress. Since the crisis will occur when the Dems are in power, the Repubs will blame them. President Warren or Biden or Sanders or whoever, will try to remind people that the economic crisis 2026 was caused by the Republican tax bill of 2017. But nine years is a long time, people have short memories and only know what is in front of them at the moment. The same people who voted for Trump will be blame the Dems for the crumbling economy and the next election will go to the Republicans.
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[Tiggeroshii]

1. Aca is an example of how waiting for the effects of the bill has nothing to do with the electoral

Consequences of the law.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Right

Republicans were able to capitalize on their "fearing and smearing" of the ACA only a few short months after its passage to win a House majority. This new Tax bill is already immensely unpopular, so it's not like Democrats have to work too hard to hang it like an Albatross around the Republicans' necks in the upcoming midterms.

[Kingofalldems]

2. .....

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210006877

[NewJeffCT]

3. Job creation is already down this year

Under trump compared to the last 3-4 years under Obama. If the job creation continues to slide, they'll pay a price.

[Lanius]

4. It's up to Democrats to remind people who passed welfare relief for the corporations in 2017

in the years ahead. Don't let people forget the Republicans passed a tax-cut plan with $1.5 trillion in deficits, while also promising it would lead to increased wages and would pay for itself.

Paul Ryan is already trying to walk back the promises; on the Today Show he said, "Nobody knows the answer to that question," in response to a question about whether economic growth would make up for the loss in tax revenue.

[Historic NY]

6. It will show up in the pay checks a lot sooner.

Mine would be going up if I filed.



[link:http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/calculate-americans-taxes-senate-reform-bill/index.html|

[wishstar]

7. Negative effects could begin in about 3 years

You are right that Repubs aren't worried about the repercussions as it already seems quite possible Dems could take control of Congress and/or Senate next year and we could get a Dem President in 2020, so Repubs are trying to push through as much as they can possibly do ASAP before Dems take over and end up having to deal with the repercussions. This is already the longest economic recovery and stock market rise in history, so odds are against much more upward movement.

[genxlib]

8. I don't think this one will take that long.

The economy is already in bubble mode as evidenced by the stock market and housing prices.

It seems to me that a lot of the anticipated business benefits have already been factored in to the stock price. In other words, a lot of the boom has been speculation on how much tax and deregulation benefit they would get. Now that it has been defined, it becomes a lot more difficult to justify the stock prices based on actual performance.

However, what you say could take place in 2021 and effect the next Democrat after only a 4-year Trump.

[Lanius]

9. I wonder if things going south beginning in 2021 will encourage Trump to not run again. I've said

that he wouldn't run for a second term, with his age and high disapproval rating working against him. Now I wonder if the consequences of the tax cuts plan will be the straw that breaks the camel's back in this case.

[genxlib]

15. I have often wondered if he will run again

There always seems to be something that would be a good excuse not to.

But I continue to underestimate how oblivious he is to reality.

There was a time when I thought he would drop out of the race in late summer 2016 just because it would be better than losing. That prediction didn't work out so well for me.

[haele]

11. At almost 60, I've seen this economy before - late 1980's, the pre-crash hiccup in 2006/2007.

I expect around September/October, unless another PPP is formed to "stabilize" the various loan and real estate bubbles to keep the rube investors happy, Wall Street will start crashing.
As you said - the economy has pretty much been in a bubble since February of last year on anticipation of tax breaks. Now with this new "Tax Bill" and interest rates going up, it's time to start buying back shares, selling off the weak performers, and pull out while the market is still hot and there's still plenty of buyers.

Honestly, if I had a lot of stock in the market instead of the munificent $30K in a 401K, I'd be selling now, when the banks and corporations are starting to talk about share buy-backs to their investors and park the money somewhere safe. Let it collect a couple quarters worth of the improved interest to make up for selling before the peak, and wait for both the interest rate and the price to come down again after the crash levels off before I'd start buying again.

Haele

[Cosmocat]

13. Yeah - the economy has been growing for 8 years now

hard to see it going another three without it flattening or downturning a bit at least.

Market is well past the point of being over inflated, IMO.

[genxlib]

16. I jumped the gun and divested quite a bit a year ago

I am usually pretty good at estimating macro-economic sentiment (i timed the peak of the market in 2007 within a few weeks and nearly a whole year ahead of the 2008 panic)

This time I assumed that the business community would see him as erratic and destabilizing and would react accordingly. I always figured we were one North Korean or Iranian insult away from a major drop.

I underestimated how craven the investor class is. So I confess I really did not see this stock market run-up coming.

However, I stand by my original assessment and say it won't last.

[Cosmocat]

12. that is a good call

The market was already reaching a point of being over inflated prior to the jackass winning, and they have been on a super sugar high since.

That sugar high probably included anticipation of the tax bill.

Would explain the flat reaction to it today ...

[haele]

10. They may start to suffer from lack of government services.

The GOP punditry assumption that all Republican voters that count can live in a "Pay as You Go" society until, say 2024 - that they're a professional middle class that will be able to afford to send their kids to a tutor or private school, put the car in the shop every year, have good health, pay a reasonable mortgage or don't have student loans is rather misleading.
They're not going to be able to just kill off their own poorer rural voters and suppress the votes of their opposition before their policies begin to take effect.
For example, not funding CHIP before the first of the year, closing down Government offices and rural community medical care along with the looming plans to cut Medicare and Social Security is going to hurt their 2018 mid-terms in the red states and red areas of the blue states no matter how much spin Faux and InfoWars peddle; and I'm not sure they've really got the evangelical voters lock in some of those red states as much as they think they do.
"Abortion" as "the only reason to vote" when you can still take care of your kids and hold down your job only works if it's an easy or safe vote.
If your elderly parents or kids need services that you can't afford because the tenuous safety net was finally pulled out from under everyone, and abortion or Gays were the only real reason you voted for the GOP candidate, protecting unborn babies for Jesus isn't quite as important as the Democratic candidate's offer to help fix your problem.

Haele

[scheming daemons]

14. Disagree. People will see their health insurance premiums go way up.

....and economic crisis is coming a lot sooner than 2025.


The markets were all inflated the past 11 months on the hopes of this tax bill being passed. The bubble is going to pop. And likely not too far in the future.