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Crystal Ball House rating change: TX-28 following Cuellar indictment [View all]
The House race in one of the most interesting districts in the country got a jolt Friday when long-serving Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) and his wife were indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice on bribery and other charges. The indictment accuses Cuellar and his wife of taking roughly $600,000 in bribes in exchange for advancing the interests of an Azerbaijan-controlled energy company as well as a Mexican bank. The case is somewhat reminiscent of the indictment of Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), whose career in Congress appears to be nearing an end (even if he follows through on a threat to run for reelection as an independent).
The indictment did not come completely out of left field: FBI agents raided Cuellar’s home and office in Laredo in January 2022, but there hadn’t really been any news about this potential case since then until the indictment came out on Friday. The initial raid, which was widely covered, did not prevent Cuellar from surviving a second tough primary with a left-wing challenger, Jessica Cisneros, nor did it seem to harm him much in a very expensive generally election bout with former Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) aide Cassy Garcia (R): Cuellar, a rare Democratic opponent of abortion rights and arguably the least liberal/progressive member of the House Democratic caucus, won by 13 points.
Prior to the indictment, Cuellar appeared set for an easy reelection bid. Cisneros declined to run again in the primary, and he does not appear to have a very credible Republican opponent. Veteran Jay Furman and businessman Lazaro Garza Jr. are competing in a May 28 runoff for the right to face Cuellar. Furman led Garza 45%-27% in the first round of voting; neither has raised much money. National Republicans are going to have to decide whether either is worth heavily backing in the midst of Cuellar’s indictment—and, if they do, what will national Democrats do to counter, given both the need to hold the district but also the optics of actively trying to defend someone running under the cloud of a serious indictment? House Majority PAC, the big Democratic outside group, did include $520,000 in the San Antonio media market as part of an initial ad buy announced a month ago, before the indictment (that market covers part of the district).
Cuellar’s district became markedly less Democratic in 2020, backing Joe Biden by just 7 points after supporting Democratic presidential candidates by roughly 20 points apiece in the previous three presidential elections (these data come from Dave’s Redistricting App, including recently-published information about the 2008 and 2012 district-level voting that formed the basis of Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman’s national look at voting patterns last week). One could imagine the district becoming even more competitive in 2024, which could threaten Cuellar, especially considering the indictment. The other Democratic-held district in the region is represented by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34), who faces a rematch with former Rep. Mayra Flores (R). At this point, Republicans still seem likelier to prioritize TX-34 given a more obvious challenger there and the fact that despite TX-34 being a bluer district than TX-28 (Biden +15.5 in the former compared to Biden +7 in the latter), the Republicans held Gonzalez to a high single-digit victory in 2022 while Cuellar won by double digits (we wrote about TX-34 a few months ago when we moved that race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic).
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-may-7-2024/
The indictment did not come completely out of left field: FBI agents raided Cuellar’s home and office in Laredo in January 2022, but there hadn’t really been any news about this potential case since then until the indictment came out on Friday. The initial raid, which was widely covered, did not prevent Cuellar from surviving a second tough primary with a left-wing challenger, Jessica Cisneros, nor did it seem to harm him much in a very expensive generally election bout with former Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) aide Cassy Garcia (R): Cuellar, a rare Democratic opponent of abortion rights and arguably the least liberal/progressive member of the House Democratic caucus, won by 13 points.
Prior to the indictment, Cuellar appeared set for an easy reelection bid. Cisneros declined to run again in the primary, and he does not appear to have a very credible Republican opponent. Veteran Jay Furman and businessman Lazaro Garza Jr. are competing in a May 28 runoff for the right to face Cuellar. Furman led Garza 45%-27% in the first round of voting; neither has raised much money. National Republicans are going to have to decide whether either is worth heavily backing in the midst of Cuellar’s indictment—and, if they do, what will national Democrats do to counter, given both the need to hold the district but also the optics of actively trying to defend someone running under the cloud of a serious indictment? House Majority PAC, the big Democratic outside group, did include $520,000 in the San Antonio media market as part of an initial ad buy announced a month ago, before the indictment (that market covers part of the district).
Cuellar’s district became markedly less Democratic in 2020, backing Joe Biden by just 7 points after supporting Democratic presidential candidates by roughly 20 points apiece in the previous three presidential elections (these data come from Dave’s Redistricting App, including recently-published information about the 2008 and 2012 district-level voting that formed the basis of Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman’s national look at voting patterns last week). One could imagine the district becoming even more competitive in 2024, which could threaten Cuellar, especially considering the indictment. The other Democratic-held district in the region is represented by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34), who faces a rematch with former Rep. Mayra Flores (R). At this point, Republicans still seem likelier to prioritize TX-34 given a more obvious challenger there and the fact that despite TX-34 being a bluer district than TX-28 (Biden +15.5 in the former compared to Biden +7 in the latter), the Republicans held Gonzalez to a high single-digit victory in 2022 while Cuellar won by double digits (we wrote about TX-34 a few months ago when we moved that race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic).
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-may-7-2024/
Cook Political: House Rating Changes: Schweikert Moves to Toss Up, Cuellar to Lean Democrat
As both parties begin to blitz the competitive battleground with ads, Republicans continue to be the party playing more offense, linking Democratic incumbents to "wasteful spending" and more IRS funding in the just-passed reconciliation bill. But Democrats continue to poll two to three points better than earlier this year in most districts, giving incumbents in marginally blue districts some cushion and putting a handful more GOP seats in play.
This week, we're moving three ratings in the southwest: Scottsdale GOP Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-01) moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Northern Arizona Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran (AZ-02) moves from Likely to Lean Republican. Additionally, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Still, Republicans would need to win just six of the 31 seats in our Toss Up column to win the majority.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-schweikert-moves-toss-cuellar-lean-democrat
As both parties begin to blitz the competitive battleground with ads, Republicans continue to be the party playing more offense, linking Democratic incumbents to "wasteful spending" and more IRS funding in the just-passed reconciliation bill. But Democrats continue to poll two to three points better than earlier this year in most districts, giving incumbents in marginally blue districts some cushion and putting a handful more GOP seats in play.
This week, we're moving three ratings in the southwest: Scottsdale GOP Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-01) moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Northern Arizona Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran (AZ-02) moves from Likely to Lean Republican. Additionally, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Still, Republicans would need to win just six of the 31 seats in our Toss Up column to win the majority.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-schweikert-moves-toss-cuellar-lean-democrat
This is why I want Cuellar replaces as candidate.